Q: Hello guys,
I was hoping you could help to interpret the reports from Canada's banks this past week.
On the face of it, earnings did great compared to expectations. However they largely reported these gains based on outsized returns from their capital markets divisions. I am trying to make sense of what this means in the short and long term.
Firstly, capital markets are comparatively small parts of their businesses (at RY it is normally 20% of income). Is it also safe to say that this is a reflection of both turmoil and government stimulation, and I wonder if governments will be remiss to see its money land there. A d is it repeatable.
Second, with low rates on the horizon increasingly, the Fed and other central banks appear torn about the inflation theses that they have and what to do next. For banks I understand this means margin erosion as well as potentially demand destruction from customers.
Any thoughts on progress of the sector and possible ripples to the economy are greatly appreciated.
Thanks,
Peter
I was hoping you could help to interpret the reports from Canada's banks this past week.
On the face of it, earnings did great compared to expectations. However they largely reported these gains based on outsized returns from their capital markets divisions. I am trying to make sense of what this means in the short and long term.
Firstly, capital markets are comparatively small parts of their businesses (at RY it is normally 20% of income). Is it also safe to say that this is a reflection of both turmoil and government stimulation, and I wonder if governments will be remiss to see its money land there. A d is it repeatable.
Second, with low rates on the horizon increasingly, the Fed and other central banks appear torn about the inflation theses that they have and what to do next. For banks I understand this means margin erosion as well as potentially demand destruction from customers.
Any thoughts on progress of the sector and possible ripples to the economy are greatly appreciated.
Thanks,
Peter