Investment Q&A

Q: I recently read an article saying Goldman Sachs reports their base case for US tariff negotiations to include long-standing percents to be remain in place. As in, the rates may or may not change from their present 10%. I am trying to make informed decisions about expected uncertainty and whether strategic portfolio balancing needs to be done. Appreciating we don’t have a crystal ball, don’t see the sustained tariffs as a likely outcome and would you recommend any responses to higher probability outcomes to this? For example- avoiding high-multiple US stocks emerging markets or others.

Q: Good afternoon,

One of the services I like to check in on for fun does technical analysis video updates for the overall happenings in the markets that can be found on YouTube (and obviously should be met a fair share of skepticism), well today one of the things they’re talking about is a rare Zweig Breadth Thrust signal.

I realize that your wheelhouse is focusing on good companies and in the long run that's what matters most, however I was wondering if you’ve noticed the same signal (ie, did it actually happen)?

Thank you


PS. I submitted the question as private, but please free to make it a public question if you feel it is a good learning question for other members.

Q: I think I just heard that bell that no-one rings at the bottom. I realize that the Tasmanian Devil, Elmer Fudd and the rest of the white house crew will continue to revel in their own incompetence, but still there seems to be some sort of reasonableness (I know, I know) coming out of recent statements about not firing Powel and about China even.

My idea then is to ease back into a somewhat more aggressive, or at least less defensive, posture over the next several weeks, all the while still closely monitoring everything, In general terms does this make sense to you? Thank-you.

Q: I'm considering shareholder yield as a factor for investing. Can I have your opinion of such a strategy and is there a favourable/preferred % when looking at companies? Finally, would you have 5 US and 5 TSX companies that you would choose when considering this approach? Dock me as many questions as you like and thanks!

Q: I am slowly working on reducing my exposure to the US$ given the recent commentary and negative sentiment. I am also questioning bond exposures given the Trump administrations decisions recently and hiccups it has been causing in the bond market. I have ensured the downside risk on long bonds and would like your take on the following:

1) If Trump causes crisis in the bond market which bond market and ETF would be least likely to be disrupted?

2) What is your take on the short and medium term risks to the bond market with Trumps economic non-strategy?

3) Is it a more reasoned decision to reduce bond exposures in favour of investing in shares of stable Canadian or European companies?

Thanks very much,

Dave

Q: Would be interested in your take on The search question. Many are saying Goog has lost its leadership position due to AI - I believe search is still the overwhelming cash cow for the company. It’s Gemini doesn’t appear to be getting much traction?

Q: Trying to decide whether to sell stocks in my TFSA now as they are in US dollars and I might want to purchase a condo in next 4 years. I am worried now that if dollar continues to rise and if stocks go nowhere or even up a little I'll take a big hit. All great, blue chip companies that have done well in past ten fifteen years.. American Express, Chubb, Bank of America, Eli Lily, Nvidia, etc.... Any predictions on how high the CAD could go and how does one figure out a strategy when dealing with currency and declining stock prices. Thank you for your wisdom!

Q: To what degree do you agree with the logic that the USD and US t-bills are being debased as reserve currency, and to what degree to you advise making portfolio changes?
I have assets in short and long term positions-it would be helpful to have input about both.

Q: What should Trump do or is it too late RAK

Q: What do you think market reaction would be on 1) removal of Fed chair Powell and replacement by the man proposed by Pres. Trump, 2) drop of interest rates by the new Fed Chair and whether this drop would overpower the tariff influence, and 3) the liklihood of any lower interest rate euphoria quickly wearing off because of the tariffs?
Thanks a lot for you valued insights.

Q: Just read an article in the Globe and Mail, and other articles in The Economist:

"Investors have bet heavily on the U.S. economy. That’s not a great idea", by Ian McGugan

Given the concerns about the US these days (huge and increasing debt, failure of rule of law, outsized weighting in the world stock market, unhappy bond market, declining USD), should one reduce the exposure to US Indexes in a passive indexing portfolio with a long term horizon (5-10 years)?

If so, where would be a better place right now to put this money? Europe? Gold? Cash? Other?

Thanks in advance for your opinion.

Q: Hello. I work abroad and get paid in USD. I send regular transfers to my Cad dollar trading platform but also have a USD trading platform. In your opinion (not advice) would it be smarter to keep exchanging my USD for cheap CAD dollars for canadian stocks with the expectation that the CAD will eventually rise, or to move directly into my usd acccount for trading in us stocks? or a split? Thank you for your service.

Q: Hello team,

With the tariff situation and the often-contradictory comments issued by Trump and some of his advisors leading to some markets sectors tumbling or, occasionally, jumping then retreating once the corresponding news have been corroborated, denied, or even contradicted, the financial markets seem, at times, to be taking the allure of a casino with the performance of some sectors or individual stocks are subject to wild swings, and sometimes even within the same day… How do you advise retail investors to behave under the circumstances?

Consequently, could you see a situation where the repercussions of Trump and his team’s behaviour could affect the US stock and bond markets in an irreparable manner? (For example, large investment houses retreating from given sectors in tandem creating a serious imbalance in trade, or China dumping their large trove of Treasury bonds.)

Adel

Q: Over a year ago you suggested a weighting in tech of 20 to 30%, has that changed if so what would it be today? What weighting do you recommend for gold?

Q: I am Canadian and I have considerable savings in a US money market account. With everything going on in the US right now, should I exchange those US$$ back to Canadian$$$? It appears that the US dollar is losing value against the Canadian dollar,
Your opinions means a lot to me.

Q: Do you have any thoughts on buying foreign currency at this time? Euro, Swiss Franks in particular

Q: Good afternoon - Trump has been granted permission to at least temporarily fire two agency leaders. In your opinion has the risk of Jerome Powell being fired increased? And ultimately a losing an independent fed increased? Thanks

Q: Hi 5i
"This time is different". With King Chump flying by the seat of his pants and his band of nutbars supporting his every insane move, is this time different? The US used to have checks and balances but it appears these have all been removed, allowing King DJT to do whatever crazy thing pops into his head (or appears in his social media feed). With his history of bankruptcies I worry that he is crazy enough to 'fix' their debt problems by defaulting. I'm not sure he understands the implications of this and who would stop him?
Greg

Q: Hi Guys,

Just wondering…are you buying now? If so what are you buying and are you doing it in several small purchases per equity?


Thanks!

Q: It appears more and more likely that if current tariffs remain in place the USA and Canada are headed into recession. On average markets have dropped around 30% during past recessions. This would imply considerable further downside from current levels. Especially so if the Canadian markets are caught up in the same downdraft.
What is your current view on how far markets will drop from current levels? And Why? And do you still see less of a drop in Canadian markets as one of your previous posts would suggest. If so.,how would that be rationalized?
Is it too late to sell equities, or better to sell and limit further losses if a lot more downside is likely?