Investment Q&A

Q: Which sectors do you favor most if we get a full blown tariff war

Q: I am concerned that the next few months will be as volatile as the past month as the US continues its tariff agenda. Do you think it is a good strategy to invest in other currencies. If so what is your opinion of these two ETF's. (Swiss Franc & Japanese Yen)

Thanks Stew

Q: A UCLA Anderson forecast just issued a recession watch. Its analysis was called…
“Trump Policies, If Fully Enacted, Promise a Recession.”
Can you provide your analysis of this report. Is this a legitimate forecaster with a decent record?
Thanks

Q: Hello
Can we get your advice on Canadian companies that have the least exposure to a tariff war
It would help us having to re balance
Ie should we reduce stocks in the financial sector
Thanks

Q: How important/accurate is the Atlanta Fed's GDP Now forecast. As you know it has turned negative for the last two readings. What does this suggest for the US economy? Please feel free to wait for the March 17th reading if that might affect your answer. Thank-you.

Q: I’m down on the above stocks in my cash account. Total loss is $6000 CAD. I like the names and want to own these long term. Would you sell and wait the 30 days? Buy proxies? Keep and decide when the madness ends? As always. Thanks.

Q: Hi - I'm trying to get a sense as to how much these companies have the trade/tariff war issues priced in. I know it's a short term question here, but would you wait to buy these great companies given the economic uncertainty? My sense is purely anecdotal, but my gut tells me that people are pulling back on extra spending....so while COST and WMT benefit from people looking for low prices, they may also avoid the spending on extras. Thoughts? In other words, would you expect negative earnings revisions over next few months on these companies? Even if trade war averted (unlikely), they still may miss this quarter as people are already tightening their belts.

Q: I am a senior in my 80s and have long appreciated the insights and research provided through your publications. They have been invaluable in helping me self-educate and manage my investments over the years.

That said, my portfolio has taken a significant hit over the past 3–4 weeks, largely due to the evolving economic and political environment. The ongoing rhetoric between Canada and the U.S., coupled with major changes in our Canadian leadership, has created uncertainty. Additionally, with a federal election approaching in the coming weeks and the impact of tariffs, the investment landscape remains challenging.

I’ve followed Peter’s advice that “the best action is to do nothing,” which I have largely adhered to. I have already sold most of the lower-hanging fruit and currently hold approximately 40% in a money market fund. The remainder of my portfolio is primarily invested in 5i’s three model portfolios.

Given the current environment, I would appreciate your insights on the following:

Do you foresee further downside in the market?
Would it be prudent to sell some of the winners now, or should we hold steady and consider adding to certain positions?
I value your perspective and would greatly appreciate any guidance you can provide.

Thanks in advance for your time and insights.

Best regards,
Rick Tysick

Q: Hello ,
I was thinking of buying TD technology leaders etf (TEC) instead of XQQ , the nasdaq 100 etf as it has performed the nasdaq and seems to be more diversified. Any comments please?

Also, I looked at the details of VUN and XUU etfs, They both seem to have similar holdings and over 5 year period both have similar performance. However , going over more than 5 years, why has VUN out performed XUU. I am not clear on this..

Regardless of the tariffs situation, the US market seems to do well over time, and hence i thought instead of total Europe exposure, go with VEQT etf. Any comments please..

Also, do you prefer unhedged products like VUN as opposed to VUS? Lastly, i use yahoo to to compare charts. Do you know a better site please? Thanks very much

Q: I still have trouble with market response to interest rates. Assuming Bank of Canada cuts lending rates further by the end of the year.

What is the expected effect on dividend paying stocks like Canadian banks, utilities and telecoms? What other factors could affect those sectors or is interest rate the key determinant?

thanks
Ernie

Q: Does it make sense in buying a small position in something like sqqq? Any other general short recommended? What is a suggested position size given for a short given that all my other positions are positive. Is my maximum loss limited to amount of money invested in sqqq..ie can it go in the negative? Thanks.

Q: historically the risk in holding US Gov't debt has been very low. Now it seems we are only 1 Truth Social Post away from the next crazy Policy experiment. I believeTrump questioned whether they really owe all the Debt and may have even questioned the need to pay it.

When holding US Gov't debt in the form of US T Bills or similar has my risk ticked up since Jan 26th and would you say US Gov't debt is still much safer than say a TD US GIC (Corporate Debt)? Are there short term cash proxies you would avoid in this market due to recent admin change?

Lastly does this never ending talk about the US Debt ceiling and possible Gov't shutdown create risks for holders of US financial instruments?

Q: Good day, 5i Team,

As always, thank you for your support, especially during times like this.

Are you able to share your team`s general consensus on where we are heading and what would be the major factors to keep an eye on to gauge the depth of the pullback?

More specifically:
1. If we are heading for recession, what industries/companies would be best positioned to recover first and "benefit" from the current situation?
2. On the scale from Covid to Great Depression, where would you place us speculatively as the result of Trumpconomics?

Respectfully,

Nick

Q: At what levels would you be an aggressive buyer of the SP500?

Q: What’s the best strategy to protect our portfolios during these uncertain times?
I’m trying to figure out if I should sell some stocks to building a larger cash position or do nothing and just hold current stocks?
Thanks

Q: Dear Peter et al:

Market is going through the long awaited correction, Not pancking...yet! I review my own portfolio once in a few weeks and see if I can tweek it. I contructed an asymmetrical barbell with mainly Vanguard's ETFs (SAFE) and small/mid sized allocation for growthy stocks. I also have a basket for non-corelated stock. I had posed questions here at 5i Rearch in September 2023 and slowly constructed these "baskets"!

My quesion is this: How come VPU Vanguard's utilities ETF and almost all of my Private equity stocks including your all time favourite BN plus BLK/BX and most notably KKR are all down?!! They are supposed to act as a buffer, no? Because I have been buying them slowly, I am still in the positive territory, except VPU. But the fact that the non-correlation isn't taking place, makes me wonder if I have to tweek my percentage of allocation. I know it is personal. But this is more a conceptual question.

Would you add to Utilites and Private equity here or keep this framework and stay the course?

BTW my Canadian Utilities like EMA/H/FTS have withstood this correction and indeed have shown the anticipated non-correlation!

Sorry for this longish question.

Look forward to your answer.

Q: I have a good selection of dividend stocks, paying 3-7%. Expecting the volatility in the Markets to continue for some time, is it better to opt out of the DRIPs, and let cash accumulate, or keep them on, to average out share purchase prices,
My thought is, if I cancel the DRIPs, I will accumulate cash that I can use to initiate a position 6 months or a year from now, in a stock that isn't even on my radar today, or buy a larger amount of one or two of the existing stocks that might be unfairly beaten down. I would set Buy Alerts on each stock, and reevaluate anytime an Alert is triggered. Thank you for your advice.

Grant

Q: Would you be putting new money into the markets today.

Q: where can I find questions on the vix

Q: Hi Team,
These Tariff moves have gone from "not a big concern" to a major concern with anyone holding a growth portfolio. Currently I am down 23% from peak in short order since January, due to a higher concentration in Tech names and other growth names. An amazing fall considering I thought I was holding all solid names (such as NVDA. PRL, SHOP, TTD as examples) Do you view this as 2022 all over again? Or do you think the market will bottom sooner than it did in that year? Hard to say I know based on Trump saying that he no longer cares much about the market this go around. A much different tune that last term. However I suppose that could change overnight. I don't imagine Musk in enjoying Tsla's fall; perhaps that will end up in a clash with Trump on trade policies or hopefully talk some sense into him at the very least. Looking for your take on the current situation. Lastly, I assume that since major damage is already done would I be best to just hold the line at this point? Or sell out some growth names even at current levels? If buying new purchases what would be your top 3 names to add to at current levels?

Thanks,
Shane.