Review of MTY Food Group Inc.
MTY operates a great business model as a franchisor that generates stable, asset light stream of cash flow, which historically used to fund acquisitions. MTY possesses a diversified portfolio targeting different niches in the restaurant industry such as pizza, Asian food, café, etc. Despite a reported revenue growth of around 3% for FY2025, the growth was primarily from a one-time recognition of unredeemed gift card balances - gift card breakage income, making the revenue and earnings appear to be stronger than expected. Excluding that special item, MTY’s revenue is basically flat year over year. In addition, same-store sales and store count growth have been quite weak in recent quarters. The good news here is MTY’s balance sheet is now in good shape and management has been active in share buyback and raising dividends at the fastest pace. Despite attractive capital returns and cheap valuation, we think MTY is cheap for a reason as growth from organic source and acquisitions remain a big concern here. We are downgrading our rating by one notch to ‘B-’ given these factors.




