Q: Hello Team 5i and Everyone,
Unless Trump pulls a rabbit out of his hat, from what I’ve been reading the closure of the Strait of Hormuz falls into the category of “too big to fail.” And since the price of oil affects nearly everything globally, one would assume that we’re likely to see price increases soon enough in nearly everything as it is passed onto the consumer. (Like food, unfortunately.)
In another service I subscribe to a member there has a background with global oil logistics. In their assessment, if the war ended today it would take 4 months to get the shipping lanes fixed. 6 months to restart the oil fields at 85% original flow. 4-5 years to fix the LNG plants. Meanwhile countries are starting to hoard oil and oil products too, which only adds to the global demand when we really need to be destroying that demand at the moment. They equated that we need to destroy as much oil demand as we reduced during covid, but this time we need to do it with price.
At least with the problem of the tariffs, if the current US administration had snapped their fingers at any point last year and got rid of them, in theory the problem would have been solved “instantly.” But that doesn’t seem to be the case here because of the drones and missiles hitting the oil refineries. And sadly, especially for the people living inside this war, this is turning into a pretty big mess.
So what I’ve been mulling over is:
What effect would prolonged higher energy costs due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have on the data centre & AI buildout, etc and the debt being used to finance these projects? I’m under the impression that the AI buildout is supporting the US’s economic growth at the moment. Also seems like Space X, Anthropic, Open AI are all trying to IPO this year as soon as possible. The KOSPI which is over-concentrated in semiconductors looks like it had a blow off top recently.
What other important potential problems have your attention at the moment that the increase in energy costs could exacerbate?
Any further comments would be appreciated.
Thank you & appreciate the big brains at Team 5i,
Sandra
Unless Trump pulls a rabbit out of his hat, from what I’ve been reading the closure of the Strait of Hormuz falls into the category of “too big to fail.” And since the price of oil affects nearly everything globally, one would assume that we’re likely to see price increases soon enough in nearly everything as it is passed onto the consumer. (Like food, unfortunately.)
In another service I subscribe to a member there has a background with global oil logistics. In their assessment, if the war ended today it would take 4 months to get the shipping lanes fixed. 6 months to restart the oil fields at 85% original flow. 4-5 years to fix the LNG plants. Meanwhile countries are starting to hoard oil and oil products too, which only adds to the global demand when we really need to be destroying that demand at the moment. They equated that we need to destroy as much oil demand as we reduced during covid, but this time we need to do it with price.
At least with the problem of the tariffs, if the current US administration had snapped their fingers at any point last year and got rid of them, in theory the problem would have been solved “instantly.” But that doesn’t seem to be the case here because of the drones and missiles hitting the oil refineries. And sadly, especially for the people living inside this war, this is turning into a pretty big mess.
So what I’ve been mulling over is:
What effect would prolonged higher energy costs due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have on the data centre & AI buildout, etc and the debt being used to finance these projects? I’m under the impression that the AI buildout is supporting the US’s economic growth at the moment. Also seems like Space X, Anthropic, Open AI are all trying to IPO this year as soon as possible. The KOSPI which is over-concentrated in semiconductors looks like it had a blow off top recently.
What other important potential problems have your attention at the moment that the increase in energy costs could exacerbate?
Any further comments would be appreciated.
Thank you & appreciate the big brains at Team 5i,
Sandra
