Q: When I short stocks I start at the top and work my way down. Currently I am looking at problems in the U.S. economy which I think are somewhere between serious and more than serious. In this case I am looking at how a slowdown in consumer spending will dovetail with sectoral effects of tariffs and international policy responses to tariffs. So I have two sectors in mind for shorting, agriculture and manufacturing. Agriculture seems difficult because many of the companies seem to have been hit already. But if that continues it could put a squeeze on Potash. More interesting, at least to me, is the potential double (triple?) whammy that will be felt by U.S. automakers with a weakening economy, higher input prices and a less than favourable international sentiment landscape. These latter issues point me to shorting GM rather than Ford because I don't want to pay the higher divvy on Ford while waiting for the thesis to play out.
Apologies for the overly long question, but what do you think of my overall thesis, and specifically GM as a short and are there any other sectors and/or companies that you feel are vulnerable right now. Thank-you.
Apologies for the overly long question, but what do you think of my overall thesis, and specifically GM as a short and are there any other sectors and/or companies that you feel are vulnerable right now. Thank-you.
