Investment Q&A

Q: Hi again
What is 5iii s overview on holding a VIX position ?
What ETF would be your CDN (hedged) and USA recommendations ?

Q: When is it considered a market correction? I currently have money sitting on the side lines, waiting to buy a discount but unsure if a 5% drop is validated as a true “discount”. Would YOU be waiting for a certain drop in percentage before buying a dip? I understand that involves perfect timing which is impossible. Any help is appreciated. Thanks

Q: Everyone, were do you see interest rates by the end of the year? Clayton

Q: Everyone, what do you see for the remaining part of 2025? Clayton

Q: I read an opinion piece in the Globe & Mail on July 25/25 titled "A billion-dollar bet on artificial intelligence is about to hit reality." The gist of the article was that companies are pouring billions of $'s into AI on the premise that it will "lift global GDP by trillions, create entirely new industries and transform how we work." That is to say, the underlying bet is that machines will eventually deliver what humans can’t: scale, speed and 24/7 output. The author believes that while there will be some benefit from AI, it will not be as big as people believe. He says, user results to date remain mixed. More than 80 per cent of businesses using AI technology are not yet seeing significant earnings gains, and most (new) AI deployments have a failure rate of up to 80 per cent. Yet, the spending keeps increasing even though results underwhelm. An MIT economist and Nobel Laureate Daron Acemoglu estimates AI may lift U.S. GDP by a mere 1.1 per cent to 1.6 per cent over a decade, translating to annual productivity gains of 0.05% (nowhere near the level implied by current valuations). If this opinion turns out to be true, I'm wondering if the (tech) market is setting itself up for a massive fall or correction down the road (not unlike the dot com bubble burst of 2000). I'm curious as to what 5i's view is?

Q: When I short stocks I start at the top and work my way down. Currently I am looking at problems in the U.S. economy which I think are somewhere between serious and more than serious. In this case I am looking at how a slowdown in consumer spending will dovetail with sectoral effects of tariffs and international policy responses to tariffs. So I have two sectors in mind for shorting, agriculture and manufacturing. Agriculture seems difficult because many of the companies seem to have been hit already. But if that continues it could put a squeeze on Potash. More interesting, at least to me, is the potential double (triple?) whammy that will be felt by U.S. automakers with a weakening economy, higher input prices and a less than favourable international sentiment landscape. These latter issues point me to shorting GM rather than Ford because I don't want to pay the higher divvy on Ford while waiting for the thesis to play out.
Apologies for the overly long question, but what do you think of my overall thesis, and specifically GM as a short and are there any other sectors and/or companies that you feel are vulnerable right now. Thank-you.

Q: A colleague of mine, who is both a student of history and risk adverse, has suggested there are significant parallels between what is occuring in the market today and market conditions leading up to the 1929 great depression. In particular, he points to what he believes to be grossly inflated p/e values across all sectors of the North American market. I do not share his views and would be interested in your thoughts - backed up with a few pertinent statistics - regarding both my colleague's historical comparison to the late 1920s and current p/e values. (I am well aware books could be written on this subject, so looking for just your top-line opinion.) Thank you.

Q: How often do you change the companies included under the "Best Stock Ideas" tab?

What are the general criteria for inclusion?

Thanks,
John

Q: You often speak of money on the sidelines. I understand the logic of this as people want higher returns and eventually get lured back to equity markets. But can you provide some granularity of where the sidelines are? Are we talking GICs, Bonds, cash, Gold, money market funds or what?
What do you think about the thesis that investments in money market funds simply never come back to equities but rather move from shorter to longer duration vehicles?
When speaking of this move to the sidelines, are we talking mostly about individual investors? And finally where is this information available?
Thank-you.

Q: So I’m thinking if Trump imposes a 15 % tariff on all countries , how is Canada’s competitiveness changed for all countries except the US ?
Under CUSMA 90% of all trade in goods are tariff free. It will be the renegotiation of this agreement in 2026 to be most important.
How’s my thinking? Thanks. Derek

Q: An advisory service that I follow on X seems reasonable and has made the following comment today which I have seen variations of popping up with more frequency:

"Markets speak louder than headlines.

If good news can’t lift prices, risk is rising.
If bad news can’t sink prices, a bottom is forming.

Distribution has been underway for 2-3 weeks, lots of weakness under the hood. The indices are the last to roll over."

Is 5i of the mind that the market is running out of gas in the near term and poised for a pullback? I know that you are tilted more bullish in the long term but would you suggest waiting on new deployment today on the assumption that comments like the above are correct or at least likely? If you could explain in detail whether you agree or disagree I would appreciate it.

Q: Further to some news commentaries today, do you have any thoughts on market reaction if Trump discontinues trade negotiations with Canada and just imposes a flat tarriff? If that does happens can you suggest some income stocks that are potentially less at risk? Thank you

Q: It seems that Japan's economy is in trouble and that we should all be taking note. The Japanese are the largest foreign holder of US Treasuries . If they start selling those Treasuries what impact would that have on the US economy and on the rest of the world ? There is an article in the Financial Post this morning entitled "Japan's Bond Market is flashing Red" Why investors should pay attention. Your comments would be most appreciated.

Q: I understand it is impossible to predict, but do YOU feel it’s wiser holding cash at these All time highs? Wait for a drop and pounce? Or buy at these numbers as All time highs indicate excellent businesses, assuming a long term hold.

I am about 25% cash. Too much in this market ? Thanks

Q: Re: Stablecoin

If this has been answered elsewhere, please provide a link for me --- as I couldn't seem to find an answer in the archives.

What in the world is stablecoin?

Like Vinnie Barbarino, "I'm so confused".... !

and have absolutely no confidence in how to invest in it, if I don't know what it is and how it works.

Treat this as a private, or public question, as you wish, if you think others might benefit from the answer.

Thank you!

Q: In the Globe and Mail, July 16, there was an article by Scott Barlow called "Valuations and market concentration are reasons for concern." He likens the current Technology sector to mirror many of the same realities as the 2000's- before the dot com bust. What is your opinion?
As always, Thank you for the fantastic service too and helpful guidance. Ric

Q: Over the very long term, say 50 years or 100 years, longer if you know, what is the average return on the US and Canadian stock market including dividends? Say for the S&P 500 and the TSX Index. How have more recent returns, say over the last 10 or 20 years, compared to the very long term average? Do you expect the long term average to be a reasonable expectation for the next several decades or are there market forces at work that would tend to increase or decrease those expectations? I understand the last question requires a bit of guesswork.

Q: I am a senior and have been a member of 5I since you started. Between us "we" have been very successful!
I want to give back in the form of an endowment to our local Church to continue providing funds for a couple of local charities that feed and provide to those less fortunate! I will be allocating shares to Canada Helps to provide the seed funds, probably 100-200K.
I know stocks would be very difficult to administer, but ETF's less so. Also, maybe they can only do Mutual Funds.
If mutual funds do you suggest MAWER?
If ETF's and using some of your previous correspondence do you continue to to suggest ZSP, XIC, VIU, and CDZ.
Any help you provide would be greatly appreciated as we meet with the Church Staff.
Warmest Regards Gordo

Q: Hello 5i,
largely thanks to you, I have made a fair bit of money over the past few years. Certainly, more than I would have made on my own. Thank you. But, I am thinking that in my mid 70's I should start thinking about preserving it in order to pass it on. I know that stocks are you're forte, but i noticiced that you have been generous enough to give advise on other matters, as well. I will try to make this question not too close to portfolio planning advice and so hope you can advise me. In reviewing literature I notice that people say at this stage in life, we should not be looking out too far. Therefore shortterm bond etf's are best. AGG, which I own, for instance, is discouraged because it goes out to six years and there could be a downturn at just the wrong time. They also mention holding tips, corporate bonds and a GI C ladder. I didn't think that I would need these latter assets. Just bond etf's in US and CDN. I also thought government would be better than corporate, as well, because they would be more secure. Anyway, I hope that at this point in the game you can also dsirect me to the right choices, as you have in the past. Here is a list of assets suggested:

short-term Canadian bonds XSB or VSB Core stable income
Short-term corporates ZCS Slightly higher yield
Laddered GICs (1–5 yrs) GICs from brokerage Guaranteed principal
U.S. short Treasuries VGSH Safe USD diversification
U.S. short TIPS VTIP Inflation hedge
High-interest savings ETF CASH.TO or PSA Liquidity buffer

Q: Sir: What 2 US and Canadian stocks or ETFs do you see most unfairly punished now, and most likely to reward , down the road. Also could you suggest one non US value ETF or stock that cheers you a lot? Thanks-JP