Investment Q&A

Q: I am trying to understand oil and gas pricing and how the war in Iran affects them. I get that oil prices will rise during these times. What I don't understand is (a) why local gas pump prices rose so soon (the gas in the ground at my local gas station was bought several weeks ago!); and (b) why does oil from the tar sands, for example, increase immediately in price when Suncor's customers, I believe, are largely in North America and therefore don't compete against Iranian oil? From a valuation point of view, is the price for oil and gas companies simply reflecting the windfall profits being made on both the sudden increase in prices and the subsequent profits that will be reaped, since prices never go down as fast as they go up? If the hostilities ended tomorrow, would you expect the share prices to drop by 30% or so, given how much they have increased since December?

Appreciate your insight (particularly on this complicated topic).

Paul F.

Q: What are your thoughts on the current offer for Meg Energy presuming it goes through. If we keep Cenovus stock we would have a half position.

We also own an almost full position in CNQ and TOUR. Have a full position in ENB. Those last 3 are about 5% of our portfolios.

I'm mostly looking at this as providing me with more cash but might hold the half position of Cenovus if the future is bright. (I know you don't have a crystal ball!)

Would you keep the half position of Cenovus or instead sell Cenovus and use the cash to add more to TOUR or CNQ?

We're retired, conservative investors.

Q: Hello,
I own the following O&G producers and this is about 12.5% of the portfolio.
CNQ 2%, Tour 2%, Meg 2%, TVE 2.5%, WCP 1.5%, HWX 1%, Ath 1.5%
I want to raise cash and would probably sell about half.

My view point is from a conservative, retired senior, but looking through next 2-5 years with these. I think the best ones to keep are CNQ, Tourmaline, Tamarack Valley and Meg - maybe sell off TVE if good gains over next year or two.
Would like your opinion on what to sell/hold.
Do you agree or perhaps would you reduce all evenly? (I prefer to manage at a few less stocks.)

Would you exchange any stock or have other other recommendations?

Thank you very much

Q: Given the possibility of a recession and the certainty of volatility for the next couple years, can you give me 4 CDN and 4 US stocks/etf's, you think might provide some safety and reliable, albeit moderated returns? The equities I've listed are my ideas.

Q: I own XEI, ALA, and TOUr but little oil.

I'm hoping to buy base metals and oil in an CDN etf. Do you think this is a good idea and what would you recommend?
I'm hoping to buy base metals and oil in an US etf. Do you think this is a good idea and what would you recommend?

Q: Hi Ryan and Peter,

I have held PNE for years and years and have a cost base of $1+. I lost so much money on it that I just sort of tucked it away. Now BMO turns bullish on nat gas, Andrew McCreath says dry gas is the best and PNE has it in spades. Now today the stock is up +20%!

On one hand, it has high debt and they have never turned a profit. On the other, there is large insider ownership and they are still buying.

What is your outlook for the sector? How does this dry gas and your nat gas outlook effect PNE’s projected earnings? Would you average down here?

I was also too chicken to buy birchcliff at 60 cents but should I now get in on this space either averaging down, going with a new company or staying away all together?

Thanks guys! Keep up the great work.