Investment Q&A

Q: Given the thesis's that has recently been discussed in Seeking Alpha and in the Globe, as well as NFI's high market share/strong relationships, and the guidance provided in today's Investor Presentation, I would think that the stock has the potential to rise greater than the 52 week high of $33.94 in the near future. The main driver is the move to Zero Emission Buses (ZEB), in part aided by infrastructure spending/subsidies, from traditional buses.

NFI had been trading at $59.00 in February of 2018. At that time the Fiscal 2017 Performance was Revenue: US $2.38B, Adjusted EBITDA: US $318.0M and Return on Sales: 13.4%. That was prior to their acquiring Alexander Dennis.

NFI had their "Virtual Investor Day" this morning; which would have been a greater catalyst than the Seeking Alpha article. I watched the investor day video
https://www.nfigroup.com/investor-relations/investor-day-2021/ this evening, during which NFI:
- reaffirmed its financial guidance for 2020, including Adjusted EBITDA of $145 million to $155 million;
- announced its financial guidance for 2021, including Adjusted EBITDA range of $220 million to $240 million, representing a potential improvement of over 50% from 2020 expectations; and
- announced longer-term targets for 2025, including Adjusted EBITDA of $400 million to $450 million and a Return on Invested Capital ("ROIC") target above 12%.

Given the above, as well as the state of today's markets as it relates to renewables and EV's do you think that we might see NFI trading at or near $60 in the next year?

Thanks for the great work you do!!!

Cory

Q: Looking at its stock price chart NFI turned the corner late last year and is making steady progress upward. How do you assess it going forward?

Q: Hi 5i,
This may well be 4 questions, so please deduct points accordingly.
Portfolio Analytics indicates that I'm underweight in Communications Services, Consumer Defensive, Industrials and Consumer Cyclical, and I'd like to top up these sectors.
I try to be a balanced investor and like income, but I don't mind taking on more risk and little or no income on something with a solid premise. Especially right now I'm looking for companies that are poised to benefit from the return to (more or less) normal life that 2021 might bring.
My present Communications Services weight all comes from the following ETFs - TXF, ZDI, DISC and ZWU. Can you provide a few Canadian equities to look at in this sector at this time, other than the big four?
My present Consumer Defensive weight comes mostly from NWC, with a smidgeon from ETFs like ZFI and DISC. Are there two or three Canadian equities in this sector you'd currently recommend looking at?
My present Industrials weight is in FTG (which I'd be happy to sell unless you think it has the potential for recovery in the coming year), QST and XBC. Are there another two or three Canadian names you presently favor in this sector?
And finally, my only Consumer Cyclical other than whatever might be in the listed ETFs is NFI (although I'd have thought it would properly be classified as an Industrial). Again, could you recommend two or three Canadian equity names that might qualify as viable Consumer Cyclical holdings going forward?
Thanks a lot and Happy New Year!
Peter

Q: I have a DOY balanced portfolio (Alpha-Balanced for guidance) , with less than 10 year timeframe.
I’m underweight communication services, and energy. Not a fan at this stage of oil or precious metals. Overweight in industrials and technology.
My concern is with my overweight in technology. Reading a number of opinion articles that refer to the tech boom as another dot.com. The reply often is oh but this is different.
Here’s my two cents worth especially related to tech stocks I own. First of all investors/traders seem to be jumping in and out of technology based on the latest COVID-19 / vaccine news.
Re KXS; will still be in demand long after Covid-19. LSPD; somewhat sensitive to Covid-19 but have done a good job diversifying and adapting restaurant services etc. Will do well in recovery.
Maybe more acquisitions.
SHOP; like Amazon will carry on even though the valuation is high. Younger generation will still shop on line.
Now comes the tricky part. WELL and VEEV. I don’t quite have a handle on. Not sure if the demand for their service will still be there post COVID-19.
Your comments and/or thought would be greatly appreciated. I have a feeling that many of your clients would be interested in what you have to say.
I’m an experienced investor but don’t have access to the kinds of info I once did. I depend a great deal on your unbiased expert opinion.
Merry Christmas

Roy

Q: Potential tax loss selling -- could you please provide suitable placeholders for these companies. Also, if you recommend keeping these "placeholders" instead of switching back after 30 days please let me know.

Q: NFI closed up $2 last Friday. Is there a reason for this ? Joe

Q: What can you comment about the impact on NFI of Lion Electric's latest news?
From my preliminary research, it appears Lion is not public and no details are available about it's financial position/results to date, although the move to New York via NGA Corp looks to position it as a ~$1.9 billion market cap (vs ~$1.2 billion for NFI).
It appears that Lion does not actually sell anything yet? (they're taking "pre-orders"), supposedly has capacity to build ~6,500 units per year (vs ~2,500 for NFI).
Any news or thoughts about their announced plans to build electric delivery vehicles for Amazon fit with Amazon's announced "plans" to purchase 100,000 electric delivery vehicles from Rivian/Ford?

Q: Hi 5i team, do you have any recommendations on EV Canadian companies?

Q: Please recommend bus manufacturing company or other supply companies that would benefit from EV shift in transportation.
I currently own BUS, a Vancouver company
Many thanks
Peter

Q: Hi 5I
In regards to Tom’s question question on NFI, I’m also down about 70%. I understood your answer as moving on to a better company, and if so what would be your choices? Thanks for your valuable services.
Maurice

Q: Hi 5i,

Can you recommend 3-5 stocks to replace NFI?

Thx,
Chris M

Q: Please comment on their 3rd quarter report. I can't make hide nor hair out of it!
Thanks,
Jim

Q: My wife and myself hold 365 shares in NFI in our TFSA and are down 69%. Yestereday, NFI re-affirmed 2020 guidance, but was less confident about 2021. Even though held in NFI, should we continue to sell all or some of the NFI shares or just ride it out with a dividend yield of 5%?.........Tom

Q: I hold some big loss holdings, such as those above, in registered accounts. Even though there is no opportunity to claim tax losses, would it make sense to consider selling them, at least until the new year, to avoid further losses resulting from tax loss season?
Thanks for your insights

Q: I have a small position, down 20%. I am close to selling it now, but just wondering should one wait to see what the earnings call on Nov. 11 brings?
I can find more growth, faster, elsewhere. Thx.

Q: I am looking at tax loss selling of these 4 companies. Down significantly on all 4. Is there any I should retain that may have hope of recovery.

Q: Hi 5i
After listening to the infrastructure update by the Canadian Gov't this morning and the areas they addressed ie: electric buses and clean energy projects etc will be priorities, I am thinking both NFI and XBC will benefit. Your comments please and any other suggestions.

Q: Please rate the above for survival and continued Div. payout in the next 5 years, based on cash- flow that well covers the dividend . I am a senior and need income. I have a position in all the above and would like a rating best first. Please insert your suggestions for the above criteria.
thanks
Yossi

Q: Hi, I own NFI, which is down almost 50%. Would you recommend selling it for AC if dividend and sector are not my primary concerns? Thanks.

Q: To add to Donald's question:

i have a position in NFI (now about 2,5 %). Considering that:
-its a long term hold (5 years +, no need for dividend money while waiting)
-that it is hold in a registered account ,so no taxes loss or gain
-that trading fees are not significant

would you keep the current NFI position or switch it to MG ?