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Review of Kinaxis Inc.

NOV 20, 2025 - KXS’s share price has been under pressure recently along with other software names due to negative sentiment toward software-as-a-subscription (SaaS) businesses, which investors believe could potentially be disrupted by Artificial Intelligence (AI). We think the concern shows little merit and, so far, KXS’s results have not been affected by AI. KXS continues to be a great long-term winner in the niche market of supply chain software. Though KXS is not a hyper-growth name like it used to be, the company still manages to consistently achieve double-digit growth on topline and annual recurring revenue. The company is also right-sizing stock-based compensation to a reasonable level. KXS’s business model is highly cash-generative with limited needs for capital expenditure, and the company maintains a solid financial position. KXS has been more aggressive with share buybacks recently to take advantage of the weak share price. We think the risk/reward here is quite attractive for investors with a time horizon of three to five years. We are maintaining our rating at ‘B+’.

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Q: Hi 5i team,

I’m reading about a thesis and would love your view on it.

The idea is that today’s AI compute scarcity is temporary, kind of like the telecom/bandwidth bubble in the late 1990s. As inference costs keep falling over the next few years, I think the real value will shift from the infrastructure layer (GPUs, hyperscalers, data centers) to the application layer.

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