Investment Q&A

Q: Dear 5i team,
NA, CM and RY have seen recovery to an encouraging extent.
BNS, TD and BMO much less so.

I do bear in mind that not all banks were/are uniformly exposed to risks precipitated by the virus; those that needed to increase reserves against losses have done so I believe. I’ve not sourced reports indicating any bank is not prudently shored up with loss provisions.

Would it be too soon to start a monthly purchase of BNS, TD, and/or BMO - small amounts, say $1k?
If it is too soon, what are you looking to hear, read about, or see happen that would tell you buying can begin?

Thank you so much!

Q: A respected analyst stated: DO NOT BUY THE BANKS!!!
Here are his reasons:
- Not only are they facing pressure from a flat yield curve but every aspect of their business is being disrupted by digital-first competitors.
- FinTech companies (both public and private) are disrupting every single one of the revenue channels at the banks.
- There isn't a single reason to own bank stocks other than the dividends however I’d argue if their businesses decline as much as I think they will those dividends might not be safe.
- There are better industries to find dividends where the companies are growing earnings and increasing their dividends. Personally I don’t see any of the banks increasing their earnings for a long time especially if these VC backed FinTech companies continue to crush them.
- If you want exposure to the financial industry I’d suggest going with the digital payment companies: $V $MA $PYPL $SQ

What are your thoughts re: only focus on fintech and digital payment companies in your portfolio?
I note that your top pick for banks in your income portfolio is BNS.TO, which you constantly recommend as it appears "undervalued", however BNS.TO has made 0% capital appreciation over 5 years. Is it time to switch to fintech?

Q: My daughter is selling BNS for a tax loss. For a replacement would you favor a US bank like JPM at this time or another Canadian bank like TD or RY? Her other financials are BAM and GSY.

Q: Hi 5i:
The quote about Latin America below is from today's Washington Post. Given that dire analysis, can you advise how you think the situation in Latin America will affect BNS's overall business, its share price and ability to cover its dividend for the foreseeable future.
"In Latin America, the economic disaster may be just as acute, if not more so [than in other hard hit places such as India]. Leading U.N. officials warn of a “lost decade” in the region, with spiking poverty and entrenched recessions. The ILO [International Labor Organization] pointed to a “stimulus gap” between rich and poorer countries. “Just as we need to redouble our efforts to beat the virus, so we need to act urgently and at scale to overcome its economic, social and employment impacts,” Guy Ryder, the ILO secretary general, said in a statement. “That includes sustaining support for jobs, businesses and incomes.”
Thanks,
Peter

Q: What is the current stock price per book value of the above 3 banks? The

Q: Hello,
I have been holding Laurentien Bank for a few years thinking it was 'cheap' as it was trading below book value. It's done terribly should I hold/sell any recommendations on an alternative holding for the long term.

Q: Sir: I find myself still Down over 40% on SU, FIH.U, MTB, UMPQ and UAL and down over 20% on the others in spite of the recent strong market. So 1. Add to.? 2 sell.? Or 3 Hold.? Thanks for your great insight and valuable advice..........Jim

Q: BNS is currently in the dog house but do you see this as a decent entry point for a 1-3 year hold? Yield remains strong and it seems mgmt will be able to navigate through Covid.

Q: I sold BNS some time back at $58.11. I had held it for income. Do you think the dust has settled enough to buy back for a long-term hold for income and some growth? I also on RBC and TD.

Q: Peter; I have some extra cash to ad to either BNS or ENB. I’m up on BNS but down ENB . Thanks. Rod

Q: Hi 5i,

For my experience, once the bank had an issue with the U.S. Department of Justice, it will become in big big trouble for the coming ten to twenty years! Please see how the HSBC:US behave, and you will understand. It has been dropped from US$91 to US$21 from the past history, and the price now is even worst than the crisis 2008.

Q: Hi,
In a previous question you responded:
" We would rank the banks: TD, RY, BNS"
Should I sell my BNS and swap for TD or RY? I've held it for years and basically just received the dividends.
Thanks

Q: Hi 5i team
As a long-time BNS shareholder, I am disappointed to learn of the US$127 million settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice regarding manipulation in metal markets. As part of this, the bank admitted they (this surely involved senior management) made false statements (nice way of saying 'lied') to U.S. authorities in 2018 as part of a small settlement on the same matter. The bank stated "At Scotiabank, we understand that in order to maintain the trust of our stakeholders, we must adhere to trading-related regulatory requirements and compliance policies. We are committed to adhering to these standards."
How wonderful of BNS to say this (please forgive the sarcasm).
My questions are: What actions do you know of that BNS took to fire the people involved for cause, with no severance, AND to cancel stock options the perpetrators would have enjoyed, to send a crystal clear signal to every BNS employee that these sorts of actions will not in future be tolerated?
And finally, what is your view of BNS shares today?
Thank you.
Edward

Q: Thoughts on the quarter please?

Q: What does the market expect from BNStomorrow? Thx

Q: I have about 29.3% of my portfolio in financials. Is this too much? I'm above water on all except BNS with FSZ about even if I include the dividend. Which would you suggest dropping if I'm too heavy in this area & in what order? Thanks,as always for your wonderful guidance
Dave

Q: On a scale of 1 to 10 and assuming there are no 10s (100%) what would you rate the safety of the next 6 , quarterly dividends for BNS? What are the chances of a dividend increase in your opinion?


Thanks

Q: Settled with U.S. DOJ today. This doesnt appear good. Thoughts Please?

Q: Hi there , do you know how I can find the % of revenues and profit that BNS gets from its Latin american operations ?, following a previous question from another member : I travel to Chile often and I am always amazed at the high activity of the economy and the low service standards for banks . BNS ought to benefit from these favourable conditions.

Q: The 12 month low for bmo was $55.76 and for bns was $46.38 a difference of $9.38.
On aug 14 bmo closed at $78.03 and bns closed at $57.68 a difference of 20.35 in favour of bmo.
Do you think that a major reason for the weakness in bns is due to the coronaravirus in latin and South America and as it continues it to spread should I switch from bns into bmo or is it too late?