Q: hello 5i:
Recently, I asked the following question and you answered:
Q: hello 5i:
knowing you've been a fan of this company, from reading questions, can you comment on the fact that analyst earnings expectations have dropped from .23 (to year end 2025), 6 months ago, to currently .12. Has this changed your view of VHI?
thanks
Paul L
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Asked by Paul on October 30, 2025
5i Research Answer:
According to Bloomberg, adjusted EPS goes from 12c estimated this year to 31c estimated in 2026. With $94M in cash and cash flow growing, we remain comfortable with the stock.
Perhaps I should have been a bit more specific. I could see their projected earnings via Fastgraphs, but...................VHI has, shall we say, a not stellar (dismal?) record of meeting or beating earnings. So what are projections really worth?As earnings have been revised downward so much in the last 6 months, what suggests they won't be revised downward at the same rate? If you have confidence that earnings will not be revised downward, you must know something. Could you share that something?
thanks
Paul L
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With appreciation,
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Just to be clear—I’m not blaming you at all for that. I appreciated your perspective then, and I still do now. I’m simply revisiting the decision with fresh eyes, given how things have evolved. Aecon has always been a bit of a yo-yo—volatile by nature. And I know myself: once I sell a stock like this, I won’t buy it back. That’s why I’m approaching this decision with care. The recent contract Aecon signed to expand into the U.S., especially in nuclear infrastructure, feels like more than just a bounce—it suggests real strategic potential.
Fast forward to today, and Aecon has rallied to a new high of $32. My position is held in a margin account, and I’m sitting on a capital gain of $22,900. Of course, selling now means paying tax—but so would selling later. The dividend yield gives me about $834.48 annually, which is modest compared to the capital gain.
You once told me to hold Aritzia and not to fear a likely weak quarter. That advice turned out well. And when Aecon announced its U.S. expansion, the stock responded strongly. I appreciated your insight then, and I trust your judgment. Now, I’d love to hear your thoughts on this one.
So here’s where I’m at: should I sell now and lock in the gain, or continue holding for long-term income and potential upside? I’m not looking for reassurance—I’m looking for your clear-eyed analysis.
Thanks in advance—I really value your perspective.