Investment Q&A

Q: I am deciding on whether to buy Vermillion Inc or BEP.UN. What are your thoughts on these two companies. Thanks

Q: I have the above 3 holdings with losses ranging from -60% to -85%. They each now represent less than 0.5% of my overall holdings so whatever happens they will barely move the needle. I am at a point where I feel I need to do some type of clean-up and would appreciate your advice. I see 3 possible choices:
1. Dump them right away regardless of price in the name of cleaning up my portfolio
2. Given that we might be close to a bottom wait (say between 1 month to a year) to hopefully sell at a better price
3. Top them up to at least a quarter or half position and hang on to them long term
They are all in registered accounts so there are no tax benefits in selling. Furthermore I went into this downturn with 30% cash and have since bought into the drop (other positions) bringing my cash down to 15%, with plans to do additional purchases if the market drops further. So at the moment, I have no immediate need for the little cash that selling these right now would bring. What would you suggest?

Q: Boy these companies' stock prices took a hit. I appreciate many mid-size PNG companies will likely go bankrupt with the drop in oil prices. But I always liked these companies as I understood they had lower costs of production than many of their competitors.
1. Is that assumption correct?
2. How would you assess the strength of their balance sheet?
3. Do you see these 2 companies as ones that are at high risk of going bankrupt in the near future?

Q: If you were to pick one stock that would react the most positively to an increase in oil price what would be your pick?

Q: Given the abysmal condition of the oil & gas sector and the apparent attempts of Russia and the Saudi's to further roil negative market activity, some long-term opportunities must be in the offing. Which oil & gas producers have the strongest balance sheet, lowest cost of production and are, generally, the most likely to survive these current circumstances?

Q: What is the outlook for above noted companies in terms of :
1. Balance sheet. Which companies can survive this down turn in the oil patch? ie not go bankrupt. Please add comments and list companies in order.
2. Which companies are hedged and how long do their hedges go and at what prices are they hedged at?
3. Would you currently take a position on any of these companies?
4. Any other helpful comments are appreciated.

Q: Having read their financials, I am trying to understand to what extent they have hedged their revenues. If I am reading this correctly, I not seeing many call options on oil beyond the first two quarters. Any concerns over their ability to weather the storm, debt wise? Long term debt isn't due for a few years. Covenants could be problematic? Cuz the stock looks very cheap.

Cheers Leo

Q: Which companies do you think might not survive the crisis and it's better dumping now while they still have value? I think you have mentioned the oil producers and what about restaurant stocks? I just listed a few examples here of both.

Q: I know you are not a fan of Baytex. I hold it and Vermillion. Can I get your thoughts on their ability to survive this onslaught? I realize you have no way to know where oil prices will land and for how long they will stay depressed, but can BTE and VET take concrete measures to ensure they survive ?

Q: I wonder whether you could tell me what you mean when you use the phrase “do not need to be owned now.” I have both VET and WCP. WCP, at least was in the green for me until this sell off started, and higher fairly recently. Both were recently described as OK, albeit within a riskier sector.

I might not “need” to own them, but I do. Selling now would lock in a massive loss, percentage wise, and provide little capital to redeploy.

I’m not asking that you advise me to sell or hold, but in such circumstances, were it you, would you take the loss (non taxable account) and buy a tiny amount of shares in something more stable, or would you do nothing except turn off the TV, stop reading questions like this, and come back in a few months?

Q: Would you sell VET and WCP or hold? Would you recommend that energy stocks are not needed in a portfolio, even though we "should" have all sectors represented?
Thanks for your service

Q: Hello team,

Would you please mark (from 1 to 10) each of the above companies in terms of their ability to weather a recession scenario. (the lower the mark the worse the current balance sheet and inability to service debt).

Thanks a whole bunch especially in this crazy times....

Q: Hello, how high is the risk of VET going bankrupt? Is VET could become a takeover target? Is another dividend cut possible? If it goes bankrupt, do we automatically loose all the money we still have in the company's stocks? Thanks, Gervais

Q: Hello Peter and Co,
My 20 year old grandson has opened a TFSA with $22000 in cash, and is asking for advice how to start investing. Our suggestion is that he put a fairly large amount into an index fund ETF, such as VFV, and then buy several individual stocks with the rest. They would be small positions (~$2500 per stock) but a good way for him to start learning, and with markets down, the timing seems quite fortuitous.
He is considering the following:
100 shares VFV: ~$7500
40 shares GSY: ~$2500
35 shares BEP.UN: ~$2500
1 share AMZN: ~$2500 (CAD)
7 shares NVDA: ~$2500 (CAD)
200 shares VET: ~$2500
-------------------------------
TOTAL: ~$20000

We had also suggested CSU, SHOP, KXS, PKI, TTD, GOOG, AAPL, ROKU, FB

What do you think of the above approach, and what changes might you suggest? I realize VET stands out as quite risky, but should probably do well long term.
Are there any sectors or stocks or ETF that you would suggest adding/replacing? Obviously he has a multi-decade time horizon.
Thanks for your sage advice!

Q: Hi team,

My first time real bloodbath experience. Just wanted to ask if you change your comment about not taking an aggressive stance on VET after this past weekend. Can the company survive with say $30 oil prices for the next 6 months, given the fact their debt to cash flow situation is going to get much worse. Would you buy today or would you expect the price to go even lower?

Thanks for being with us during such exciting times! :)

Q: I never thought I'd see VET at $10.00 Is this a great buy or just a disaster - moreso than it is already waiting to happen?
Is this company sustainable at this number? With anyone but Trudeau at the helm I'd think theres a chance...but with him I fear its all downhill.
Your opinion....does this company survive??

Q: Can we get your thoughts on Vet results and dividend reduction? Thanks John

Q: Vermillion (VET) is getting hammered this week and again today after an analyst said they will have to cut their dividend by 50%. The company says no way. I am wondering if this is so terrible for the company. They would still be paying over 8% and have more money to repay debt. The price seems too low and I think it will rebound strongly when the panic passes. What do you think?
Thanks.

Q: I am continuing to hold VET in my long-term portfolio. I bought it originally at 18.27 and am enjoying a 13% yield. I am not overweight in energy. With the recent declines, it is tempting to buy more. What are your thoughts on VET these days? Do you feel confident in their ongoing ability to pay (and potentially grow) the dividend? Thanks in advance.

Q: Peter & Co.,
I am reviewing Vermilion’s operation, financials and dividend in light of the Coronavirus. The virus is still largely an unknown factor in world health and economics. However, the impact on travel and commerce is certainly being felt. Among my concerns is the short/long term impact on energy consumption. Vermilion has 60% of its production in North America and 35% in Europe. Is there any way to evaluate what impact we can might expect on VET over the longer term?
With appreciation, Ed