Q: This is an excellent response to Charles’ question asked on May 27 about what to do when stocks are down 50%:
Diversification and position sizing are two items that can help mitigate this 'pain' so the drawdowns do not hurt as much. Otherwise, the best answer we think is just understanding what one owns both on the stock (what type volaitlity might we expect) and on the company (does the short-term volatility 'matter' vs long-term). The optimal answer can only be known in hindsight unfortunately. While we typically don't like averaging down in names, [once drawdowns like this pass and settle down, it can be an opportunity to add to a position once/if momentum starts to work in a company's favour again]. We not generally like stops either. Good companies, over 15 years, might have 7 or more very large drawdowns that might get stopped out (my emphasis added).
My question: how do we know when momentum is starting to work in favour again? A few days of share price increase with more volume? What I generally do is ask has anything fundamental to co changed. If not, and based on the fact that I was prepared to buy at a higher price, I simply buy more understanding risks and do not try to time the market, which can drive one crazy. I do though want to understand more about what generally signals a turn for the better.
Diversification and position sizing are two items that can help mitigate this 'pain' so the drawdowns do not hurt as much. Otherwise, the best answer we think is just understanding what one owns both on the stock (what type volaitlity might we expect) and on the company (does the short-term volatility 'matter' vs long-term). The optimal answer can only be known in hindsight unfortunately. While we typically don't like averaging down in names, [once drawdowns like this pass and settle down, it can be an opportunity to add to a position once/if momentum starts to work in a company's favour again]. We not generally like stops either. Good companies, over 15 years, might have 7 or more very large drawdowns that might get stopped out (my emphasis added).
My question: how do we know when momentum is starting to work in favour again? A few days of share price increase with more volume? What I generally do is ask has anything fundamental to co changed. If not, and based on the fact that I was prepared to buy at a higher price, I simply buy more understanding risks and do not try to time the market, which can drive one crazy. I do though want to understand more about what generally signals a turn for the better.
