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Review of Aritzia Inc.

MAY 22, 2025 - In our last report update, we felt if ATZ could resume its growth trajectory, the company could experience a positive valuation multiple re-rate, and that scenario has played out. ATZ reported solid operating results in the most recent quarter, with encouraging comparable sales and topline growth, disciplined cost and inventory control. ATZ’s business momentum is solid. ATZ’s growth story and financial targets of an annualized growth in sales of 15%-17% on average until FY2027 are certainly achievable given the execution. That being said, the tariff uncertainty, which could cause consumers to pull back on discretionary items, is a potential headwind for ATZ. Management gave conservative guidance with a wide range of outcomes for the full year because of this. With the recent results, we are comfortable with an upgrade; however, due to uncertainty caused by the trade war, we are maintaining our rating at “A-”.

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I plan to use a fraction of the assets in my TFSA to set up a high-growth, moderate high-risk concentrated 10 stock six-digit sub-portfolio with a 10 year time-frame and hoping for a 5-10 fold target. The idea is to select the best high conviction durable names, maximize capital gains compounding, and minimize dividend drag such as US withholding tax in the TFSA. With the help of my chatbot assistant, it looks like a base case of 17-25% annualized is required to reach the 5-10x target, even with periods of significant drawdowns and bull cases. Obviously stock selection and staying invested for the long term are key.

My initial tentative selection of 10 stocks NVDA, ASML, MSFT, AVGO, NBIS, GOOG, TSLA, CCO, NVO, and SHOP with weightings ranging from 6% to 16%

Could you please critique my strategy and the stocks selected. Suggest improvements including alternative names to consider as replacements that you feel might work better.

If you were creating such a portfolio for yourself which 10 names would you select.
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Q: I adhere to a portfolio construction strategy where 5% is a full position but I allow for a "rock star" stock like a SHOP, NVDA or GOOG, to go to 7% at which time I will trim a point or two.

When you suggest a small-cap stock, you often warn against buying too big a position initially, given the inherent instability and risk of a smaller company. My question is, at what point do you "loosen the reins" and allow that stock to assume a full position and when do you allow it to go to (in my case, for example) rock start status? I'm thinking of companies like ATZ and HPS.A. Is it based on capitalization, number of business cycles management has gone through, profitability ratios or is it as much art as science?

Appreciate your insight.

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