Investment Q&A

Q: Hi Team, we own all 3 though SU is the clear laggard; why is that ? In the next upswing for the group would you expect continued relative performance ? and would you swap out SU ? For who ? Thank you.

Q: I'm trying to determine the risk of any potential future SU dividend cut going forward since they did it a few years ago. How does SU's balance sheet compare now to then ? Are there any other things that one can compare today to back in 2020 with this company?

Q: These past years, watching energy / utilities has been strategically interesting these, noting that it was a short time ago that renewable utility stocks were shooting for the moon, and energy was so low that oil was selling at a negative to fulfill pipeline contracted deliveries. At its low I recall a reader asking “should I back up the truck” on Suncor. In short your response was no. Nobody likes oil, just look at the price.
Then it all switched. A number of unforeseeable crises such as Ukraine shifted everything.
What is the long term forecast for each? I note that the world is finally ramping scale for electric vehicles, and batteries, a lot faster than building power plants. My hypothesis is thus related. A demand surge for e-cars in years ahead will gradually spike power demand with no concurrent supply leading to average power rates jumping and done winners in utilities. If anything, natural disaster supply shortages in California, Texas and others have highlighted grid vulnerabilities reducing supply and creating spikes for winners.
On the fossil fuel side, I would therefore guess that demand will persist as North America does not support infrastructure to reduce or even maintain electricity costs at present levels.
Any thoughts welcome- this is no longer a new subject but should be among our most important as investors…I’m also looking out at the smoke everywhere and thinking this discussion isn’t going away.
Thanks
Peter

Q: As a TRP dividend investor of 77 years old are the problems with the XL pipeline already baked? As I am a value investor for the most part would you suggest a switch to PPL or other suggestion? I have a 5 - 8 year time frame. I also hold ENB, SU, XOM and CVX as well as NXF as the energy part of my portfolio.
Stanley

Q: Looking to start a position in either SU or TOU. Which do you believe is the better investment today?
Thank you
Donna

Q: Hello, we have a full position in CNQ (5%) and SU & TOU (3% combined). We also own ENB (6%). We are considering to reduce our weighting in Energy sector. We like CNQ and ENB, for their respective merits, at the two ends of the spectrum being Growth and Income and relatively stable history of stock performance. If you have to choose to sell/trim between SU and TOU, what would be your approach - Equally trim from Both or Sell one of them in full ? Based on current and likely scenario of Oil and Natural Gas prices and their balance sheet and growth/income prospects.

Thank You

Q: Good morning team,
My only exposure to the energy sector is Tourmaline and I am thinking of adding either Suncor or Canadian Natural Resources. Can you please let me know which of these two you think would be the better choice and why. If you think there is a better choice to diversify my exposure please let me know.

Thank you,
Paula

Q: Thanks for your response to my question regarding what companies SU might consider for future acquisitions given they will have a need to replace production going forward. Would you please provide explanations for both MEG and BTE as to why they would be the potential targets by SU.
Thank you!

Q: Given Conocco Phillips exercised their right of first refusal on Surmount, Suncor has options to manage their cash. Their is also comments that they need to replace production so in addition to reducing debt, buying shares, acquistions could be an option. Who do you think would be a target for them?
Thanks

Q: SU, BN, TOU, GSY all received haircuts Tuesday.

If you topped up for long-term hold, what would be the order and rationale? Thank you.

Q: Please provide your thoughts on how you would rank POU against ENB, SU, TRP, TOU, GXE and PXT for growth, holding for more than 5 years?
Thank you,
Roger

Q: Hi guys,

I would like to add the above companies into my portfolio (balance portfolio), please rank them. (must have to steady eddie)

thanks

Jim

Q: Energy is a small portion of my overall portfolio. TVE is one of my larger holdings but it has lagged other energy names in the past few months. Do you still like TVE and should I be adding to bring my average cost down.

What are your three favourite Canadian Energy Names in current market?

Thanks
Tim

Q: I am currently thinking about adding to my energy holdings and have room for either arx or su. I currently hold tou, Cnq, wcp, Enb, trp and ppl

Thanks

Q: I am underweight in energy, owning TVE and ENB. Do you consider ti is a good time to increase energy exposure? I am considering TOU or SU. Which would you prefer for a 5 year hold?

Q: How do you think SU will do in the next couple years and what would be your top 5 favorite energy plays in the Canadian Market? Also, with China reopening, US dollar on a downtrend and noticing several major Metal/Copper stocks gapping up like FCX and VALE, SCCO, how would you rank these and what are your top 5 companies domestic or international to take adv of rising commoditiy/metal prices

Q: Hi

Would it be wise to take the capital loss in our cash accounts to off set some of our gains to date by selling GSY?

Then buying SU for growth and the dividend.

Thank you

Mike

Q: Hi Team

In general it seems like commodity stocks underperform the markets. Let’s look at SU, ABX and TECK which are large cap stocks in the oil, gold and copper categories. It seems commodity stocks had a good run from about 2003 - 2008. Since 2008, each of these three commodity stocks have traded in a range and are currently close to the top of said range. It seems like the commodity stocks have underperformed the overall market for the past 15 years by quite a bit because the commodity stocks are about the same price as they were in 2008. There have been times when buying commodity stocks as a “trade” was great like in 2020 when SU was $15 or in 2015 when TECK was $5 and in 2015 when ABX was $10. But today these stocks are all at the top of the range. They never break out of this range and I don’t see any evidence that they will break out of the range. If they don’t break out of the range the only direction from here is down. For example, gold is a whopping $2000, and ABX is still only $25. Oil was over $100 recently and SU still never broke out of the range. When the markets tank the commodity stocks usually tank as well…. they don’t act as a hedge. There are exceptions like in March 2020 when the market tanked, and ABX did quite well for 4 months. But today, ABX is back to $25 where it was in Feb 2020. I understand diversification is important but why add commodity stocks to a (long term) portfolio if they never perform well. The commodity stocks are finally paying good dividends but so do many other stocks in different sectors.

Question #1 – please let me know if you agree or disagree to the above. If you disagree, what is the compelling argument to buy large cap (safe) commodity stocks unless they are trading at the bottom of the range.

Question #2 – is there an etf that tracks the Canadian stock market that does not include commodity stocks?

Thanks for your great input to your members questions.
Greg

Q: Hi, Energy sector has witnessed a sharp sell off last week, with market and decline in Oil prices. Recession worries seem to be growing higher and with ECB sticking to 0.50% rate hike, market seems to be expecting Fed to stay course with its hawkish stance, despite recent turbulence in banking sector. Some large Energy traders are reported to have lightened their positions significantly, early in the week. We as well as most of 5i members are simple retail buy and hold investors and do not have access to advanced tools/money flow and other expertise.

With the recent market backdrop in the sector, and Oil/NG prices flirting with new lows, has your view, in terms of maintaining about 10% weighing in the sector, changed ? Or, do you believe that market concerns are of short term in nature and there is value and a strong case to remain invested in the sector for say, at least 12-24 months ?

Mr. John O'Connell of Davis Rea was on BNN, warning viewers to stay away from the Energy sector, claiming that cost of production of most companies is higher than current prices. (which appears to be a questionable claim). On the other end, there is Mr Eric Nuttal, an expert in the sector with $2 Bln AUM, with completely opposite views.

Thank You

Q: Pretty ugly day, particularly for oil. Is this just more negative market sentiment re banking fallout? Does your opinion still stand to pick away on the buy side?