Q: Hi Team, we own all 3 though SU is the clear laggard; why is that ? In the next upswing for the group would you expect continued relative performance ? and would you swap out SU ? For who ? Thank you.
5i Research Answer:
It is likely due to a combination of factors. Suncor's payout strategy has been delayed to fund acquisitions and as operating issues reduced cash flow, but improvements should come in 2H. The company delivered C$3 billion in funds from operations in 1Q vs. total distributions of C$1.6 billion. Operations were hurt by outages at its Commerce City refinery, and full-year guidance was reduced because the Terra Nova redevelopment start was delayed. The acquisition of TotalEnergies' oil-sands properties will increase debt, possible slowing the rate of further dividend increases. So, the combination of weak oil prices, debt and lower dividend growth is likely turning off investors in the short term.