Q: Following up on my hedging question, any thoughts on which companies Nuttall is referring to in this excerpt from his newsletter? Thx
what were we doing yesterday? We sold our one US name and bought a low-cost oilsands producer whose stock was down by 50% (the Fund now has 100% Canadian content…Canadian producers at least benefit from a $0.73 loonie when they sell their oil in US dollars but have operating costs in $CDN). We added to another oilsand name that is 55% hedged this year at $59WTI (with swaps) as the stock collapsed by 56%. We also went through the structure of the hedge books of our positions and trimmed exposure to any name that may fall into trouble if the price rout lasts for longer than 6 months. Now is not the time to take on extreme risk. Our goal is to be in companies that can weather this storm as best as possible to allow us to be fully exposed to the sector for the inevitable turn. All it will take is one headline about a Saudi/Russia meeting and energy stocks could easily gap up by 20%+ in a day…if you’re not positioned for that event human psychology will prevent you from chasing the rally hoping for a pullback that may never come.
what were we doing yesterday? We sold our one US name and bought a low-cost oilsands producer whose stock was down by 50% (the Fund now has 100% Canadian content…Canadian producers at least benefit from a $0.73 loonie when they sell their oil in US dollars but have operating costs in $CDN). We added to another oilsand name that is 55% hedged this year at $59WTI (with swaps) as the stock collapsed by 56%. We also went through the structure of the hedge books of our positions and trimmed exposure to any name that may fall into trouble if the price rout lasts for longer than 6 months. Now is not the time to take on extreme risk. Our goal is to be in companies that can weather this storm as best as possible to allow us to be fully exposed to the sector for the inevitable turn. All it will take is one headline about a Saudi/Russia meeting and energy stocks could easily gap up by 20%+ in a day…if you’re not positioned for that event human psychology will prevent you from chasing the rally hoping for a pullback that may never come.
