Investment Q&A

Q: A member just asked about CGX...maybe this is the reason...from TD:

Yesterday afternoon, it was confirmed that Cineworld Group plc (CINE-LN, not rated) is currently engaged in discussions about a possible all-cash acquisition of Regal Entertainment Group (RGC-US, not rated), the No. 2 U.S. exhibitor, at a price of US$23 per share, or ~US$3.6bln (~US$5.9bln including debt).
However, no agreement has been reached.
Impact: SLIGHTLY POSITIVE
A US$23 per share purchase price is a 26% premium to Monday's closing price, but a 44% premium from a week ago. This equates to ~9.0x and ~22.0x 2018 consensus EBITDA and EPS, respectively. Implications for CGX include:
■ The valuation being implied for Regal gives us confidence in the ~10.1x we are applying to CGX's theatre segment within our SOTP calculation. CGX is currently trading at 9.7x our 2018 EBITDA estimate, and our current $47.00 target price is based on an 11.0x EV/EBITDA multiple applied to our consolidated EBITDA estimate for the 12 months ending September 2019.
■ We do not believe that CGX is currently for sale; however, applying Regal's takeover valuation plus the historical 3.0x-4.0x multiple point premium to CGX's 2018 EBITDA suggests that CGX could be worth $50-$55 in a takeout.
However, given its market share, mix of high-margin businesses, and strong earnings profile, we believe that this range would be the floor price.
■ The selloff in CGX shares has been overdone, exacerbated by increasing investor short positions over the past few months. We believe that industry M&A — which could be a consequence of what is perceived to be the diminishing influence exhibitors wield over the major studios — should provide short-term support for the share price. Over the long term, we believe that valuation will start rising once it becomes more evident that Cineplex's ongoing diversification initiatives are lessening its dependence on Hollywood content and when there is greater clarity surrounding the impact of Premium Video on Demand (PVOD). We expect these to become clearer closer to 2019.
Post if you think appropriate.

Q: As a follow up to the question asked today, in yesterday's Barrons online edition, there was an article by Michael Kahn called "3 stocks to play the rebounding Movie Theater Sector'. CGX may have moved up as part of that industry.

Q: Hi! What's up with CGX? Can't find any news.

Q: Will the stock price of this company return to $50 range with better movie lineup, or are there other factors causing the price to have dropped significantly. Can you provide your analysis of current valuation and growth prospects? Thank you.

Q: Hi 5i
I am frustrated with AD and am looking at a replacement in an RSP account. Could you give your opinion and rank order for a long term hold of CGX, ECI and ABT. Do you think each will kept in the PF? Thanks for your help.
Gary

Q: i am not sure you answered fully the questions asked by Curtis yesterday......"Would you still recommend it for an income portfolio?" Yes, no, maybe or it depends?
I had it as a growth/income stock but I am willing to keep it as an income stock in my mix.

Thank You

Q: Thoughts on CGX 3rd quarter earnings?
Would you still recommend it for an income portfolio?

Q: Hi, can you explain the almost 4% drop of CGX today? Would you buy on this drop, or wait until earnings on the 7th? What are the expectations for their earnings?

Q: Buy. or Hold. or Sell

Much appreciated. RAM

Q: Hi 5i

I read analyst comment that CGX (38.76) may have to cut div due to 130% payout ratio. I assume he is using EPS not cash flow for calculation. Please comment

Q: Hi, Our investment portfolios across family are made up of a combination most companies from Balanced Portfolio, some from Income portfolio and a few others like CM(10%- reasons of affiliation), TD (3.5%), CWB(1.5%), JWEL(1.5%), RPI.un(2.5%). Objective is Mostly growth and income.
I am grateful to 5i research team for recommending companies like CSU,PBH,TOY,SIS, KWH.un and CCL.b and providing timely and consistent updates, resulting in substantial gains. Many of these successful companies would have escaped my attention, if not for your valuable advice.

My question is about a few stocks, listed in subject line, which, during my YTD review, continue to show decline in value (although we have in built gains in all of these). Except SYZ and ENB others are inside RRSP's. Does it make sense to liquidate a part of these holdings and deploy capital elsewhere ? Total value of above is about 15% of my portfolio with SYZ being the largest, 6% and GUD being the smallest,1%.

Thanks again for the excellent service !!

Q: I am a retired, conservative dividend-income investor with a company pension, CPP, annuities, Fisgard Capital and the following equities:
1. 17% Mutual funds (RBC Cdn Equity Income, Sentry Cdn Income, Sentry REIT)
2. 10% ETFs (ZLB, XIT, ZWE)
3. 41% stocks (listed above)
4. 32% fixed income (annuities, Fisgard, but not including my pension nor CPP).

I plan to reduce my Sentry Cdn Income holding from 9% to 5% and purchase ZWC. The benefits would be a) saving $1k in hidden MER fees, b) receiving an extra $1k in dividends and c) a better asset allocation. I like the covered call strategy that ZWC provides, as well as the 30 companies inside the ETF.

Question = is this the right ETF product? Are there other Canadian Covered Call ETF choices that offer this diversified asset mix that I should consider? Are their other ETFs that have slightly less financials, less utilities, and more industrials that would result in a better asset allocation for me?

Thanks for your help...Steve

Q: Hi Peter,

Do you know of any companies where the stock price has tanked recently and due to solid fundamentals/management/cycles/etc you would hope to see a dramatic recovery? Basically, I'm looking for good companies with a great risk to reward ratio, for a 1-2 year hold....any Canadian stocks and maybe even a few US ones.

Thank you.

Q: Hi, can you please advise current PE ratios for each of these companies. Can you also rank them best to worst for adding a new position today for 3-5 year investment not taking into account sector diversification within the portfolio.

Q: We have done well with this stock over the years, sold earlier in the year when it was over $50. Is it time to get back in?
Thanks a lot
John Follis

Q: I own AFN.DB.A and CGX.DB.A convertible debentures, both of which reach a "hard call" date on Dec 31, 2017. How likely are they to be called? If called, are they likely to be redeemed with cash or with common shares?

Q: You have added CGX to your income portfolio because you expect lower growth in the future. I see the earnings per share growth projection for CGX (webrokker) are expected to double in the next 4 years. Do you think these estimates are too high?

Q: Hi: I am slowly building a diversified portfolio one stock at a time. I currently have equal amounts of BNS, BEP.UN, DRG.UN, ZUE, and GUD. Which would you recommend for my net purchase CGX or SIS. Or a better choice?
Thanx

Q: I am surprised that you bought CGX in the income portfolio today. Even though it is down substantially it still trades at an EBITDA/EV multiple that is significantly higher than US comparables. I know that CGX is well-run, but has little growth and under GAAP accounting has not covered its dividend in 5 of the past 7 years. This does not seem to be a good stock for a conservative income portfolio. What am I missing? In your answer I would welcome a comparison to Corus Entertainment, which also offers little growth, but at least the dividend is well covered and would seem like a much safer choice for income.

Q: Alex suggested that one of the positives in CGX's favour is the number of properties it has. How many of these stores are company owned vs leased? How does this affect your assessment of the value of CGX in deciding to hold, sell .... or buy more?

Thanks.