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Review of Cineplex Inc

OCT 16, 2018 - Cinema operator facing several headwinds including slow growth. Still a well-run company with cheap valuation and near monopoly. Rating downgraded a notch to 'B+'.

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Q: Charge as many credits as you see least lots. Annually, I follow the O'Shaughnessy system and go through the tedious process of ranking over 90 stocks into deciles. I am screening for stocks that are good value, less volatile and have a good + growing dividend. For value, I use P/E, P/B, P/CF, P/S. For volatility, I use Beta. For dividends, this year I have added 5 year growth % into the process. The resultant summary number is the cumulative of the 7 metrics, with roughly 60% value, 15% volatility and 25% dividend weighting. I then marry this up with a technical screening, using charts with a 200 mda, looking for a rising vs rangebound vs declining chart.

Question 1 = your thoughts on my screening system? I thought of adding in other metrics, but I wanted to keep it relatively simple. Factors such as payout % and ROE can always be a looked at in the next phase. Should I drop any of the metrics if they are redundant?

Most of the stocks screened as expected. However, 3 stocks didn't screen well at all and I am trying to figure out why. It may be that my population of stocks is skewed to value stocks, so if any of the other 3 stocks had growth or REIT characteristics, then they might be seen as outliers.

Question 2 = CSH's fundamentals screened horribly = 10th decile. Could it be that REITs may screen out differently, due to their very nature?

Question 3 =Both PBH and WSP screened poorly = 8th decile. Could it be their fundamental metrics exhibit more growth characteristics?

Question 4 = Reading past 5iR questions on these 3 stocks leads me to believe you are still strongly in favor of all 3. Please confirm.


Read Answer Asked by Stephen on December 12, 2018

Q: I am a retired, conservative, dividend-income investor. My current equity-only asset allocation is 22% financials, 8% real estate, 25% tel-pipes-utilities, 15% consumer (owning CGX, PBH & others contained in ETFs and MFs), 3% health, 8% tech, 8% industrials (owning WSP among others), 9% energy, 2% materials. I am mostly invested with roughly 8% cash available to deploy.

I capitalized on tax loss selling of NFI and TCL. I am considering topping up CGX and WSP to a full position and re-initiate a partial position in either NFI or TCL or another suggestion from you.

Question 1 = Could you please rank these 4 stocks based on a) security of dividend, b) growth of dividend and c) potential stock price appreciation (rebound potential).

Q2 = I am normally a buy-and-hold investor and do minor-trims-adds around core positions. Being we are in late cycle, should I just maintain my existing allocations and avoid adding to my consumer cyclical and industrial stocks?

Thanks for your help...Steve

Read Answer Asked by Stephen on December 06, 2018
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