Q: I realize a lot has been said about BTO recently, but most of the discussion has focused on (reduced) 2026 expectations. At current levels, do you think that downside risk should be reasonably low? Analysts have been increasing estimates for ’27 such that at the Feb/24 close the Fwd PE is only 5.4x. That seems to be a very low # for a company in one of the strongest sectors, which tells me the market has already baked in future execution misses, helping to reduce downside risk. Conversely, if execution does improve by ’27 the stock looks like an easy double from here.
Q: I was disappointed with the reaction to the release of the year end results for B2Gold. Since I started accumulating BTO in the summer of 2024 I have some very solid gains with BTO but not nearly as good as I have had with Alamos, K92, Gmining, centera gold. alkane, and even Agnico Eagle. That is my story but more importantly this my question. Was it the 2025 results that disappointed (Because they did not look that bad to me except that the new Goose Mine is ramping up slower than projections.) or is it the guidance for 2026? I think it is the weak guidance. But one thing that a casual observer might not know about BTO is that they have been getting much lower prices for their gold because of a prepay arrangement with I believe is with Tripple Flag. BUT that prepay will be over at the end of June (please confirm that) and then BTO can get the full price for all of their gold sales for the second half of 2026. I think BTO only got about $3300 on ounce in the last quarter of 2025 while Alkane realized $5200 (perhaps that was in $AUS since I only glanced at the press release). That is a huge difference. So even if BTO produces fewer ounces in 2026, due to the Namibia mine ramping down, the profitability of BTO in the second half of 2026 may be strong due to higher realized gold prices for ALL of the ounces produced in the 2half of 2026. Am I looking at this possibility correctly or am I missing a critical piece of the financial puzzle of BTO?
Q: Nothing in today’s earnings would improve anyone’s sense of the value of BTO. Assume advice remains to invest for gold in other companies.