Q: Your comments please, on the following article in Reuters today with respect to a forthcoming recession once the yield curve inverts? Personally equities in general appear to be fully valued today and i'm reluctant to add cash to this market.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The spread between three-month Treasury bills and 10-year note yields inverted on Friday for the first time since 2007 after U.S. manufacturing data missed estimates.
The three-month 10-year yield spread, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of the yield curve, narrowed to minus 0.56 basis points. An inverted yield curve is widely understood to be a leading indicator of recession.
The Market Purchasing Managers’ Index report, which tracks activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector, on Friday disappointed investors, with the headline index down 0.5 percent to 52.5 versus the expected 53.6. Earlier, Germany reported that domestic manufacturing contracted further in March, driving the benchmark 10-year U.S. government bond below zero and adding to fears of a global slowdown in growth.
The soft data exacerbated a trend that began on Wednesday after the Fed issued a statement showing policymakers foresaw no further rate hikes for 2019 given the slowdown in the American economy.
“The reality is the market is now expecting lower rates on average over the next 10 years than we have currently. And it’s a combination both of a dovish Fed and also ongoing global growth concerns,” said Jon Hill, U.S. rates strategist at BMO Capital Markets.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The spread between three-month Treasury bills and 10-year note yields inverted on Friday for the first time since 2007 after U.S. manufacturing data missed estimates.
The three-month 10-year yield spread, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of the yield curve, narrowed to minus 0.56 basis points. An inverted yield curve is widely understood to be a leading indicator of recession.
The Market Purchasing Managers’ Index report, which tracks activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector, on Friday disappointed investors, with the headline index down 0.5 percent to 52.5 versus the expected 53.6. Earlier, Germany reported that domestic manufacturing contracted further in March, driving the benchmark 10-year U.S. government bond below zero and adding to fears of a global slowdown in growth.
The soft data exacerbated a trend that began on Wednesday after the Fed issued a statement showing policymakers foresaw no further rate hikes for 2019 given the slowdown in the American economy.
“The reality is the market is now expecting lower rates on average over the next 10 years than we have currently. And it’s a combination both of a dovish Fed and also ongoing global growth concerns,” said Jon Hill, U.S. rates strategist at BMO Capital Markets.
