Investment Q&A

Q: My question today on price points for buying and selling LMN in my TFSA is derived from my experience with the ups and downs of EGLX which I rode from $1.90 to $11.00 to $.90 at which point I dumped it. I have LMN in my TFSA and it will be a long term hold. I am looking at GLXY and don’t want to repeat the EGLX story. Like EGLX , GLXY is in a “ happening “ sector with
well thought of management, a Canadian small cap expected to list on the NASDAQ. You had EGLX in the growth portfolio; recommended it at $7.00 but then eventually sold it. You saw a reason to sell that I didn’t and I paid the price. What am I to look at specifically for GLXY so I don’t repeat the same mistake ? ( Maybe I should just stay away with stocks that have the letters LXY in their ticker ! )
Thanks. Derek

Q: Thank you for the Money Saver's email " Avoiding The Yield Trap " on covered call ETF's. Garth’s question and your answer from February 25, sparked more questions. Also read all the Q&A on HBND.

My understanding HBND is 50% covered call on Treasury ETFs (eg: TLT, VGLT, VGIT, etc.) with target yield of 10%. Dividend growth is reliant on interest rate rising. You answered on Oct 6, 2023: “…But if rates stagnate or decline….the yield on this ETF may come under pressure, but its unit price can see capital appreciation”. Expectation is interest rate may go down this year.

Is it better to invest in HBND or dividend grower in the long term? So, I created a spreadsheet to determine the breakeven period where a dividend grower will match the annual dividend paid by HBND if dividend yield stays around 10%. I choose four random dividend growers FTS, SLF, TD, T with average historical annual dividend growth of 5%, 9%, 6% and 7% respectively. Starting point: Annual dividend payment as of January 2, 2024, no DRIP and no additional stock purchases.

If HBND dividend yield target yield remains around 10%, the number of years, when the annual dividend grower payment would exceed HBND annual dividend payment for FTS in 18 years, SLF in 13 years, TD in 16 years and T in 8 years.

Based on these results, if a person requires dividend income is the next 10-12 years, than HBND is a possible income source. However, if the dividend income is not required for more than 10-12 years, a viable option is to purchase a dividend grower since the annual dividend amount should exceed HBND and continue to grow.

Note: This is a simplistic point of view since HBND target of yield may drop with interest rate expected to drop later this year, a dividend grower rate may drop, no drawdown in capital for more than 10 years or black swan events. This exercise is focus on dividend not capital appreciation. This exercise could be applied to other income stocks (eg: XHY, HPYT),

Is this logic flawed? What other points should I consider? Is there a role for HBND or other high yielders in wealth accumulation portfolio vs wealth decumulation phase? Inflation in the last couple of years has reinforced (for me) to consider dividend growth to be able to fund retirement income for hopefully a few decades.

Thank you for your thoughts.

Q: Hi 5i,
I'm looking for guidance respecting TVE, which I've owned for quite a long time. I feel my investment is basically near dead money, treading water just to stay afloat - but I freely admit I'm not knowledgeable enough about the O&G world to properly analyze future prospects of a company based on amount and location of reserves, BOE/day etc. etc.
I've read your answers to recent past questions about TVE, and know you think it's a takeover candidate, with the acquirer paying around a30% premium.
CIBC has a target price on the stock of $4.50. Morningstar's fair value is $4.89 and CFRA rates it a strong sell with every criterion it applies being negative, except valuation which it pegs at "neutral". National Bank meanwhile rates it an outperformer with a target of $6.50. So it seems those experts are pretty much all over the map. Meanwhile all I know for a fact from my personal involvement is that TVE has done precious little to reward shareholders either in terms of capital appreciation or dividends (compared to others out there like WCP et al) for quite some time. Even having bought and held since April of 2020 hasn't led to much compared to many others in the sector.
After that longwinded preamble my questions are:
- Am I justified in thinking that the likelihood of meaningful capital appreciation and/or dividend returns in the next year or so is quite remote, and
- Based on your experience what would an acquirer pay for outstanding shares? Would it be the 30% premium you mentioned in a previous answer, so about $4.55/share or have I misunderstood you?
My inclination is to sell and be done with it because I don't see any light at the end of the tunnel except the speculative chance of TVE being acquired and there are lots better places to put one's TFSA money.
I would sure appreciate your thoughts.
Thanks,
Peter

Q: Hi 5i Team,
Pls comment on CECO Environmental earnings and this company going forward.
Thanks.

Q: What plans does NVDA have for the piles of cash it will earn in the next year(s), and do you think these are good plans? Thanks.

Q: The latter part of my question about SHOP wasn't addressed. Can you provide comments. What might be reasons for recent weakness in SHOP? As of Monday morning, it's down again more than the market decline. Is SHOP still rated high by 5i as a top pick? If not, what has changed?

Q: Someone at 5i has held IAS in the past, and with the sudden drop last week, I was wondering if it was still a holding? Analysts still seem to like the company, do you still like its prospects? I asked this question last week, but have not received a response.
Matthew

Q: Nvidia, Constellation Software and Broadcom (in that order) have pulled away from the other stocks in our portfolio. We know how you view NVDA and CSU and wonder how you would rate AVGO to overweight in the portfolio as well? We hold AVGO in two registered accounts for the nice dividend.
Thank you

Q: Hi 5i,

While looking into the stock, I found that it has very high stock based compensation. This seems quite concerning to me. I know you like the stock, so is it something that is justified because of its growth?

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/ESTC/elastic/stock-based-compensation

TIA

Q: I recall a few years ago that Blue Yonder launched a law suit against KXS over some patent issues. Any update on this? Is it an overhanging issue for the company? Do you feel it is weighing on the stock and that investors should be taking this into account?

Thanks.

Q: Hi Peter

Can you review the LMN results and provide your feedback on the results. Also can you comment on valuation EV/Ebitda and its growth rate relative to expectations.

Thanks for everything

Q: Reading a recent Q and A on MGNI I was reminded of APPS which was once viewed positively. It seems TTD is a winner, MGNI I maybe a rebound candidate and that APPS is just dead? Do you see any potential in this as being a high upside play when rates are lower?

Q: Hi
Goog vs LMN What is 5I s suggestion for a 5yr + hold for 2024 TFSA contribution ?

Q: Hello
Could you comment on CPX earnings?
Thank you very much.
Stephane

Q: Which stock is cheaper on a valuation basis and would produce better growt over medium term. Would you suggest selling ford to buy magna.
Thanks

Q: Hi,
Would you have any concerns for CRWD's upcoming earnings report? Given that PANW got hit fairly hard after their recent earnings, I am wondering if we might see something similar on CRWD, and whether or not today's drop is a bit of a heads' up something is about the change? Any thoughts you can offer would be much appreciated!
Thanks,
Dawn

Q: Hi there, what economic data points are being released next week, and the week after?

Which one of those data points listed do you believe will move the markets (+/-) over the next few weeks?

History dictates that markets are generally positive during the month of March, anything to be concerned about this March? Your thoughts on (forward looking) how you believe this month will unfold?

Thanks!

Q: What is happening to BTE ? RAK

Q: Prior to earning BKNG has gone up to $3900 a share and on earnings pulled back to around $3500. Is this a good entry point to add to my position or do you have any concerns about the stock for the next 2-3 years? Thanks in advance

Regards,

Brendan

Q: What are your thoughts on SGR.UN's recent earnings, during the call management indicated that their rents are well below market rates, which provides upside potential as those rents are renegotiated. The payout ratio is high, however, if rents can be increased the payout ratio would fall. Would you be fine holding it here, or is it time to move on to something with a safer dividend? If so what income stock would you recommend replacing it with?