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Suncor Energy Inc. (SU)
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Teck Resources Limited Class B Subordinate Voting Shares (TECK.B)
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Barrick Gold Corporation (ABX)
Q: Hi Team
In general it seems like commodity stocks underperform the markets. Let’s look at SU, ABX and TECK which are large cap stocks in the oil, gold and copper categories. It seems commodity stocks had a good run from about 2003 - 2008. Since 2008, each of these three commodity stocks have traded in a range and are currently close to the top of said range. It seems like the commodity stocks have underperformed the overall market for the past 15 years by quite a bit because the commodity stocks are about the same price as they were in 2008. There have been times when buying commodity stocks as a “trade” was great like in 2020 when SU was $15 or in 2015 when TECK was $5 and in 2015 when ABX was $10. But today these stocks are all at the top of the range. They never break out of this range and I don’t see any evidence that they will break out of the range. If they don’t break out of the range the only direction from here is down. For example, gold is a whopping $2000, and ABX is still only $25. Oil was over $100 recently and SU still never broke out of the range. When the markets tank the commodity stocks usually tank as well…. they don’t act as a hedge. There are exceptions like in March 2020 when the market tanked, and ABX did quite well for 4 months. But today, ABX is back to $25 where it was in Feb 2020. I understand diversification is important but why add commodity stocks to a (long term) portfolio if they never perform well. The commodity stocks are finally paying good dividends but so do many other stocks in different sectors.
Question #1 – please let me know if you agree or disagree to the above. If you disagree, what is the compelling argument to buy large cap (safe) commodity stocks unless they are trading at the bottom of the range.
Question #2 – is there an etf that tracks the Canadian stock market that does not include commodity stocks?
Thanks for your great input to your members questions.
Greg
In general it seems like commodity stocks underperform the markets. Let’s look at SU, ABX and TECK which are large cap stocks in the oil, gold and copper categories. It seems commodity stocks had a good run from about 2003 - 2008. Since 2008, each of these three commodity stocks have traded in a range and are currently close to the top of said range. It seems like the commodity stocks have underperformed the overall market for the past 15 years by quite a bit because the commodity stocks are about the same price as they were in 2008. There have been times when buying commodity stocks as a “trade” was great like in 2020 when SU was $15 or in 2015 when TECK was $5 and in 2015 when ABX was $10. But today these stocks are all at the top of the range. They never break out of this range and I don’t see any evidence that they will break out of the range. If they don’t break out of the range the only direction from here is down. For example, gold is a whopping $2000, and ABX is still only $25. Oil was over $100 recently and SU still never broke out of the range. When the markets tank the commodity stocks usually tank as well…. they don’t act as a hedge. There are exceptions like in March 2020 when the market tanked, and ABX did quite well for 4 months. But today, ABX is back to $25 where it was in Feb 2020. I understand diversification is important but why add commodity stocks to a (long term) portfolio if they never perform well. The commodity stocks are finally paying good dividends but so do many other stocks in different sectors.
Question #1 – please let me know if you agree or disagree to the above. If you disagree, what is the compelling argument to buy large cap (safe) commodity stocks unless they are trading at the bottom of the range.
Question #2 – is there an etf that tracks the Canadian stock market that does not include commodity stocks?
Thanks for your great input to your members questions.
Greg
