Q: Should I trade AQN for RNW?
I am a senior dividend investor, and would ask for your opinion about this trade, along with whatever positive or negative comments come to mind.
As background, I have a ¾ position in RNW and ¼ in AQN. RNW pays 6.81% and AQN pays 4.22%. AQN is forecasting 10% growth per annum till 2021. RNW has nothing on the horizon, now that South Hedland is up and running, with nothing seen to be coming from ‘daddy’ (Transalta), so perhaps no growth in the short term.
However – even at 10% growth the dividend at AQN will only be 6.76% in 5 years, still less than RNW today even if their dividend remains the same. I surmise that both dividends are safe (would you agree?), and am really thinking “bird-in-hand” makes more sense than future promises. I do realize that if prospects remain the same, AQN may experience more growth, and I may be forfeiting some capital gain (this is in an unregistered account), but a 2.6% differential is a lot to give up for future ‘possibilities’. Since the companies are in the same business – more or less – I also have difficulty seeing any differential in risk one versus the other.
Of note, RNW has earnings on Tuesday. Would you wait until after the earnings release to make this trade, or would you make it now?
I look forward to your comments.
Also, thanks for the 2 year renewal option. I will be taking advantage of that to keep enjoying your very superb service!Thanks! ... enjoy your day!
Paul
I am a senior dividend investor, and would ask for your opinion about this trade, along with whatever positive or negative comments come to mind.
As background, I have a ¾ position in RNW and ¼ in AQN. RNW pays 6.81% and AQN pays 4.22%. AQN is forecasting 10% growth per annum till 2021. RNW has nothing on the horizon, now that South Hedland is up and running, with nothing seen to be coming from ‘daddy’ (Transalta), so perhaps no growth in the short term.
However – even at 10% growth the dividend at AQN will only be 6.76% in 5 years, still less than RNW today even if their dividend remains the same. I surmise that both dividends are safe (would you agree?), and am really thinking “bird-in-hand” makes more sense than future promises. I do realize that if prospects remain the same, AQN may experience more growth, and I may be forfeiting some capital gain (this is in an unregistered account), but a 2.6% differential is a lot to give up for future ‘possibilities’. Since the companies are in the same business – more or less – I also have difficulty seeing any differential in risk one versus the other.
Of note, RNW has earnings on Tuesday. Would you wait until after the earnings release to make this trade, or would you make it now?
I look forward to your comments.
Also, thanks for the 2 year renewal option. I will be taking advantage of that to keep enjoying your very superb service!Thanks! ... enjoy your day!
Paul