Investment Q&A

Q: Hi guys,

Please provide feedback on HBFG financing announced today.
Thanks again for all your help navigating the financial markets. Merry Christmas

Jim

Q: In response to why NVDA might be experiencing weakness, CNBC has been talking about:

MON, DEC 16, 2024

The Exchange with Kelly Evans
FROM THE DESK OF KELLY EVANS

 
AS OF MON, DEC 16, 2024 • 11:24 ET

What Just Happened.

 
"The market's most important stock is faltering," the CNBC headline aptly reads this morning. And as our Fred Imbert catalogs, Nvidia shares are down 3% in December while the rest of the market is up nearly 4%, and are down nearly 10% from their November 7th all-time highs.



Now, a tiny correction in a stock that's up 164% this year, and 9x in two years, is hardly reason for concern. But there could be a meaningful reason why the shares are stalling out here--and why shares of another chip company, Broadcom, are suddenly soaring.



It goes back to this fascinating discussion between Chetan Puttagunta, a general partner at venture capital firm Benchmark, and the anonymous fund manager known as "Modest Proposal" on Patrick O'Shaughnessy's podcast a couple of weeks ago. I'm no technical expert in AI, but here's my best effort to summarize their discussion.



Namely, has the arms race to develop the biggest, best, and fastest large language model--the kinds of model that uses hundreds of thousands of Nvidia chips in massive data centers--begun to stall out? A few marquee players, like Meta's "Llama" and Musk/X's "Grok," are still plowing ahead, but the broader market may be starting to shift.



The shift is happening because (1), Meta's Llama model is open-source, and therefore start-up teams are now able to use it to produce smaller, more targeted AI models for specific use cases, and (2), the "training" of large language models using both real and synthetic data has stalled out, giving way to a new era of grading them based on their inferencing ability, also known as "test-time compute."



And if this shift is happening--and the podcast only barely got into the chip implications of this--then it would make sense if demand were also starting to shift from a land grab of Nvidia's workhorse chips, to a market where Broadcom's "custom" chips could suddenly become a very important player. Indeed, Stifel CEO Ron Kruszewski told us that's exactly where his firm is looking as they begin to deploy AI.



And boom--Broadcom's earnings last week confirmed its sudden rise as one of the foremost players in AI. Its overall revenues soared 50% from the year earlier, and its AI revenues were up a whopping 220%. The shares surged more than 20% the next day, putting it above the trillion-dollar market-cap mark for the first time. And they've kept rising, adding another 6% today.



Now, if this shift is real, there could be further implications, ranging from expected data center power usage to perhaps reigniting a start-up boom in AI that many beleaguered Silicon Valley investors thought might never come. And Nvidia could still come out just fine, as top analyst Vivek Arya told us last week, even as he raised his Broadcom price target.



But the shift would certainly explain why Nvidia's performance has been more muted lately.



A final player to watch, by the way, is Marvell, another custom chipmaker. Its stock also surged 20% earlier this month--and is now up 102% this year--after stronger-than-expected earnings. For now, though, it's still a much smaller $106 billion market cap.



So perhaps what we're learning this month, in other words, is that Nvidia may be ceding its crown (to whom exactly, we don't know yet) as the most important stock in the market.



See you at 1 p.m!



Kelly

Q: Good Morning

We own the above US stocks and would like to add one more

Looking at adding either wallmart or celistica

Which would you choose of these two?

What other US stock or stocks do you find interesting for 2025?

Thks
Marcel

Q: Please provide your assessment of this company. MSA CN

Q: Happy Holiday Season all! Our question is not about a specific stock but rather we will need to take a fair sum out of our TFSA and/or non-registered account within a month or so. We will need to sell stocks from a well diversified portfolio. Can you give us any direction as to which sector it would be best to target for this withdrawal. We would likely re-invest the money over the course of te next 12-18 months.

Q: Assuming stable oil prices and no Trump tariffs ( having no expectations on these 2 assumptions occurring or not ), which of these 2 companies dividends will grow more quickly ?

At what price of oil have the companies stated that their current dividend level could be maintained before lowering it ?

Thanks. Derek.

Q: AGVO seems to be leaving NVDA in the dust good you give us a your thoughts and would you consider selling some NVDA and buying agvo

Q: What are your thoughts on VEEV recent earning? I have less than 1% in VEEV and have become frustrated with it after 3 years. Who is the leader in this sector? Who do they compete with? What kind of prospect do they have? Add, hold or sell?

Thanks

Q: Can you give me your opinion on this Company again, I know things have changed in the last year or so.
Jim.

Q: What is your opinion of QTRH? Is it a buy?

Q: With new funds, looking to allocate for growth - but bearing in mind risk.
Which ones would you focus on [what's their "add"], with your expectations over 3+ years, and entry prices.
Thanks

Q: For a three year or longer time frame I intend to buy two of these stocks: SYK, ISRG, UBER or AMZN. Which two would you pick and please give your reasons.

Merry Christmas to all your staff
Elliott

Q: I read this morning in the G&M there’s a push by consumer advocates for government legislation to be broadened to include restricting highly profitable credit insurance charges by alternative lenders. To what extent is even the threat of this a headwind for Goeasy and Propel? As as second question, should this restriction find its way into legislation, to what extent would this impact Goeasy and Propel?

Q: To get a well diversified portfolio of value oriented stocks, with a large component of cash, can I do better than simply buying BRK?

Q: BCE is so hated right now, it's trading like it's doomed if the dividend doesn't cut substantially. Dividend is now yielding 11%. Is this the next AQN or do they have a chance to turn things around with divesting TSN, laying off more people, etc? Was the Ziply purchase too high? Is the Air Canada Wifi deal a bad one or even move the needle? Is the Palo Alto partnership also bad? Seems like every news story coming out just drives the price down. I never want to catch a falling knife, but is the story really as bad as it looks right now and could this be a good opportunity to actually get in low with a high yield? Even if they cut it in half it would still be a great yield at this point. Maybe I'm blind, but I'm seeing more upside to this than downside at this point.

Q: Looking at beginning a position in Brookfield, but am hesitant when looking at price relative to 52 week high, yield is low, and P/E is very high. Could you please outline the rational for your support in light of the foregoing which may or may not be relevant. Thanks

Q: REITs have declined substantially since 2022. The payout has remained steady, but the market value of units has dropped.
What needs to happen in the markets to create a turnaround in this sector?

Q: Seasons Greetings to all at 5i, and fellow members as well!

Our Real Estate holdings include DIR.UN, FSV (thank you 5i for this stellar pick!), and XLRE. Portfolio Analytics indicates that we should increase weighting. I was considering adding to DIR.UN, or starting a new position in CHP.UN. If this was your portfolio, what would you do, or is there even a better opportunity? Thanks as always.

Q: AXON stock has taken a breather after reaching a high of $690, recently.

There have been some analysts' upgrades ( Price target as high as $800 ) and renewed enthusiasm in this Co., in light of the reports that the new incoming US administration will be focused on more spending on protecting US borders and law enforcement.

AXON stock's addition to Nasdaq 100 Index ( Dec 23 ) was also confirmed, this morning.

Many companies involved in production of military grade drones have also seen their stocks flirting with new highs, after reported sighting of drones in some parts of US and its defense bases.

All of above bodes well, I believe, for AXON Enterprises, being a pioneer in some of the most modern technologies and innovation to support the growing security needs of the Governments. Do you suspect that there could be a meaningful impact of possible US tariffs and competition from its larger US competitors?

How do you see the company's growth trajectory and its capability to justify its high valuation (per your recent comments)? The volatility of this stock was in full display, in Monday's trading when, after reports of Nasdaq 100 inclusion, some investors took profit and stock traded as low as $603, after opening much higher.

We recently initiated a position and after some addition, today have a 1.5%, weight ( ACB $635 ). Would you be comfortable adding on dips like today for long term, as a core holding ?

Thank You

Q: I am holding a half position in AMD- registered account. what would you suggest - average down, hold or sell?? Since I am over 90, a really long hold may not be of much interest. thanks Jim