Investment Q&A

Q: Hi, Could you please comment on NA earnings. Thank you

Q: Do you recommend purchasing any of these banks right now, especially with those with foreign investments?

Q: I currently hold TD, RY and BNS. I'm considering selling BNS given its higher risk in Latin America and risks in the financial sector now. Thinking of National Bank given its higher focus in Canada. Does this make sense? Thoughts? Or Hold?

Q: Hi Peter,

Paul Holden of CIBC Capital Markets raised his recommendation of Royal Bank of Canada and National Bank of Canada to outperform. He cited their capital levels, earnings diversification, and lower relative credit risk as the basis for his favourable recommendations.

However, he acknowledged there are risks to that assumption and that central banks could overshoot by tightening too aggressively and thus tip economies into recession; or they could move too cautiously and allow stagflation to take hold.

Holden’s models show the Big Six banks, could see their Fiscal 2023 earnings per share tumble 33 and 31 percent, respectively, in the recession and stagflation scenarios.

“Canadian bank stocks are not being priced for the same economic risks that have already been incorporated into the bond market and U.S. bank stocks. We are not calling for a 2023 recession as our base case, but we cannot simply dismiss that possibility as inconsequential. Our analysis shows there could be (roughly) 30 percent downside should a recession scenario transpire,” he wrote.

Do you agree with Paul Holden’s recommendation concerning the Royal Bank and National Bank as the best of the Big Six banks to own today? Please explain your rationale.

Second, in the event of a recession or stagflation scenario in Canada, do you agree with Paul Holden’s prediction that the Big Six bank stocks will tank by about 30%? Please explain your rationale.

Thanks

George

Q: Saturday morning on CBC Mark Warner warned viewers not to be too overconfident about Canadian banks compared to US banks. His reasoning was that Canadian banks have been buying banks in the US.
As I am a holder of Canadian banks this has me concerned. I was wondering if you could shed some light on his comment and which banks might be at the most risk.

Q: Hi Peter, Ryan, and Team

In your answers to other members, I’ve observed that National Bank isn’t one of your recommendation, and I’m wondering why.

Their 5 year CAGR is 9.4%. For the 3, 5, and 10 year periods, the beat their peers (BMO, CM, RY, BNS, and TD) by 6%, 6%, and 3% respectively.

Watching the negative news involving GSY, I’m considering switching it to NA. Since we’ve held GSY for some time, we’re still up quite substantially.

In our combined accounts, we also own TD, which we’ll keep.

I’d appreciate your thoughts on this proposed switch. Thanks in advance for your insight.

Q: Hello,
I already have a large position in TD and a small position in BMO, and would like to add to one or two more banks that won't keep me awake at night. Its quite clear that banks have trillion of dollars in loans . Last report that I read $4.12 trillion. And $1.5T of loans come due in Canada by January 2024. So even if 2% default, we have $30B in losses. And that's just Canada. Therefore, of the Canadian banks, which ones have the least exposure to the US. ? Today which ones are your recommendations?
Finally, in terms of deposit insurance, is it $100K per bank account or per individual taxpayer.? Brokerage account like RBC - Direct investing, the $1M is it for the total portfolio or just the cash? Again, per account or per investor?

Thank you
CR

Q: I wonder if any of the big six own any US or CAN MBS or CMBS ? Thanks a lot .

Q: Please rank the above companies for level of risk and do you think that our Canadian banks could ever be subject to the issues at SVB? Is BN risky? I read one person writing how his advisor won't let him buy it. Feeling like I don't have much trust in anything right now. How is an investor to handle this uncertainty? I definitely see the benefits of diversity as you had always pushed. I'm also somewhat confused as most advisors have been pushing financials due to the benefits associated with rising rates. Your calm advise would be appreciated.
Thank you!

Q: Wondering why National Bank seems to have better momentum than the other banks like TD even though you recently added TD to one of the portfolios, I believe around $88. BNS has also been a laggard over the years. What is it that prompted you to add TD over NA and would you support selling BNS, TD, or CM to enter NA or RY? It seems like NA and RY seem to have better momentum than the other banks. What would be the risks with this move?

Q: In layman's English, could you explain why SVB went under and whether it will cause any lasting damage to Cdn Banks...and are there any Cdn banks you would add to today? Thanks, great service.

Q: 5i reply on Canadian banks 5 year price CAGR
#1 NA +10.8%
#6 BNS -1.5%
For a total return 5 year hold, which bank [or RY or TD] would you advise and why?
thank you

Q: Which Canadian Bank has the best current risk adjusted appeal. 3-5 year hold.
Thanks.

Q: HI,
sorry for the long list. could you just rate these as a buy, sell, or hold right now. I am a long term investor.

Q: Merry Christmas everyone and thank you for a wonderful service! I'm looking to purchase six different companies that have preferred shares and would like you to help me pick them. Security of dividend and safety of the companies (staying power) is the top priority here. Therefore if two preferred picks are in the same sector I don't mind as I'm not sure how much diversity matters here.

I currently own TRI and CSU preferred shares and would also like your opinion on them, thanks.

Q: Last year at about this time I asked you which was the worst perfomrning Canadian bank for 2021. Apparently It was RY and I bought it and it is down 3.3% to this date.

So 2 questions please

1)Which was the best performing Canadian bank stock in 2022 and what was the performance.

2) and which was the worst performing Canadian bank stock for 2022.

I picked up this strategy from your investor Suite article a few years ago and figure I can't go to far wrong following it.

Thanks and Happy New Year


Sheldon

Q: I read a couple of recent posts on how bad TD brokerage was and how good National Bank was. Greg ended his post with “TD sucks”. That gave me a great chuckle. I am a TD client and am quite satisfied with their service but this is not to defend TD.

I have started a thread in the Forum under Brokerages and Research Tools on National Bank on the pros and cons of using that brokerage. I am intrigued by their zero commissions but am a bit skeptical on their overall offerings and service levels. I hope Greg and some others will post on their experiences with National.

Anyway, I do have a question for 5i. If I moved one of my accounts to National, with zero commissions, how do they make money from me? I don’t trade on margin, so no margin interest there. I don’t sell stocks short. I don’t buy or sell options. So, why would they want my business, or maybe they won’t?

Thanks
Dave

Q: Hi,
Having a position in AQN that is now underwater, I am wondering about selling it as well as two bank holdings that have a total profit equal to AQN's loss with the idea that I can use the proceeds to purchase another bank stock or two, top up ENB holdings, or something else you might recommend. All three holdings are in taxable accounts. Open to suggestions, as I have the sense that waiting to see how AQN does from here appears to be more risky than moving on. Your thoughts on this idea would be most appreciated!

Dawn

Q: Hi 51,
Thanks for your thoughtful answer to my question earlier this morning asking which sectors you expect to recover more quickly, and for some names you like in each.
The names you listed in the two sectors you identified (tech and consumer discretionary) were all US companies. Do you see the same sector recovery pattern being followed in Canada, and can you provide some Canadian names in the sectors you like that you would expect to 'lead the charge'? Thanks!
Peter

Q: I intend to add to above positions for the purpose of increasing my dividend income. Please give me your opinion on each of them. Do you have a favorite
Thank you!