Investment Q&A

Q: What's the story here?...banks stocks don't go ballistic....

Q: Expanding on my recent question about my desire to reduce exposure in the Financial Services sector, today's article in the Globe & Mail is of concern:

"Non-prime lenders warn thousands of borrowers they could be cut off because of new maximum interest rates"

Should this cause me to rethink my strategy to reduce TD to raise the cash? As you pointed out in your answer, GSY is significantly riskier than the our other holdings in this sector.

We are seniors (75 & 80) and the stocks referred to are in a RRIF.

Your thoughts? Thanks!

Q: Portfolio Analytics indicates that across our accounts, we are overweight in the Financial Services sector. In order to free up some cash for under=represented sectors, my thinking is to reduce TD enough to achieve the target amount. I'm a bit uneasy with some of the recent negative issues with TD, but still would like to keep some due to its wide moat and 5i's opinion that perhaps its "problems" have been overplayed. Would you concur with my strategy? Thanks.

Q: I bought them all last April and the draw down got as low as 15%--they have all made a comeback now except BNS still down 8%----Do you think this resurgence is sustainable and a good time to add to my holdings?
Thanks
Peter

Q: I seem to recall one of the "Market Masters" saying the time to load up on Financials is after they have been crushed. I know you don't necessarily like the expression "load up" but if you wanted to increase your Cdn bank exposure are there one or two you think stand out as having the biggest bounce potential from here, or would you forget about trying to be right on one or two securities and just buy the ETF if you believe the whole sector might recover from these levels? Thanks for your thoughts.

Q: Hello,
Over the years I have fallen into the trap of buying BNS as many analysts have promoted as the most international bank, as as a result I have 7.5% position. However, I have now come to the realization that the countries that they do business ( mainly South and Latin America) are in most cases very poor countries with little or no growth and unstable Governments.. As well, the bank's CEO's poor performance. Therefore, As soon as I hear what the new CEO has to say in a couple of weeks, I will slowly exit the position . What are you thoughts in moving the funds to TD or NA or BMO?
Thanks
Carlo
Thanks
Carlo Rea

Q: What is your top 6 picks regardless if Cad / US based / sectors. Also supply entry price and brief explanation on why you like your picks...Thanks for your help with this.

Q: Hi 5i,
I've just started following EQB with an eye to getting in.
In the past week all 5 major banks are nicely up (even CM!) as is NA.
Conversely, EQB has had a sharp drop followed by a bit of a bounce, but is down overall.
I realize a week is not long and typically not a period of time from which to draw conclusions. However, the opposite direction of WQB's trajectory to other banks has me confused.
Can you explain why its trajectory over the past week would be so markedly different from other, bigger, names in the sector. Is it a sign of some fundamental weakness that isn't well publicized, is it just one of those short term things that defy explanation, is it due to a difference in its business model that is seen as a weakness, is it size related and is it typical for it to go in the opposite direction than most other names in the sector?
I'd sure like to have better insight into EQB, given its behaviour over the past brief while.
Thanks 5i,
Peter

Q: 5i team: a 10 years comparative chart of these 4 banks reveal a strong tendency of BNS to lag the rest and NA to grow faster. Is BNS having challenges in its management , or is Latin America investments pulling them down ? , Will they ever recover ? , would you recommend instead NA for a better growth ?, what is the downside of owning NA ?, thanks !!

Q: Retired investor looking to reduce bank holdings. Currently have ~1/2 positions in TD and BAC and full positions in NA and RY. I would appreciate your input. Could you rank, giving rationale, ATS, CLS, ABT, HST, LEN, for upside potential? Would you recommend starting 1/2 positions (or easing into) any of them at this time? Please take credits as you see fit. Thanks.

Q: I am looking to add exposure to Canadian Banks. Given current pricing it seems like a good time to add exposure. Can you rank your favourite banks at this time. Do you have a preferred Bank ETF that could also provide good Canadain Banking exposure.

Thanks
Tim

Q: Hi, Could you please comment on NA earnings. Thank you

Q: Do you recommend purchasing any of these banks right now, especially with those with foreign investments?

Q: I currently hold TD, RY and BNS. I'm considering selling BNS given its higher risk in Latin America and risks in the financial sector now. Thinking of National Bank given its higher focus in Canada. Does this make sense? Thoughts? Or Hold?

Q: Hi Peter,

Paul Holden of CIBC Capital Markets raised his recommendation of Royal Bank of Canada and National Bank of Canada to outperform. He cited their capital levels, earnings diversification, and lower relative credit risk as the basis for his favourable recommendations.

However, he acknowledged there are risks to that assumption and that central banks could overshoot by tightening too aggressively and thus tip economies into recession; or they could move too cautiously and allow stagflation to take hold.

Holden’s models show the Big Six banks, could see their Fiscal 2023 earnings per share tumble 33 and 31 percent, respectively, in the recession and stagflation scenarios.

“Canadian bank stocks are not being priced for the same economic risks that have already been incorporated into the bond market and U.S. bank stocks. We are not calling for a 2023 recession as our base case, but we cannot simply dismiss that possibility as inconsequential. Our analysis shows there could be (roughly) 30 percent downside should a recession scenario transpire,” he wrote.

Do you agree with Paul Holden’s recommendation concerning the Royal Bank and National Bank as the best of the Big Six banks to own today? Please explain your rationale.

Second, in the event of a recession or stagflation scenario in Canada, do you agree with Paul Holden’s prediction that the Big Six bank stocks will tank by about 30%? Please explain your rationale.

Thanks

George

Q: Saturday morning on CBC Mark Warner warned viewers not to be too overconfident about Canadian banks compared to US banks. His reasoning was that Canadian banks have been buying banks in the US.
As I am a holder of Canadian banks this has me concerned. I was wondering if you could shed some light on his comment and which banks might be at the most risk.

Q: Hi Peter, Ryan, and Team

In your answers to other members, I’ve observed that National Bank isn’t one of your recommendation, and I’m wondering why.

Their 5 year CAGR is 9.4%. For the 3, 5, and 10 year periods, the beat their peers (BMO, CM, RY, BNS, and TD) by 6%, 6%, and 3% respectively.

Watching the negative news involving GSY, I’m considering switching it to NA. Since we’ve held GSY for some time, we’re still up quite substantially.

In our combined accounts, we also own TD, which we’ll keep.

I’d appreciate your thoughts on this proposed switch. Thanks in advance for your insight.

Q: Hello,
I already have a large position in TD and a small position in BMO, and would like to add to one or two more banks that won't keep me awake at night. Its quite clear that banks have trillion of dollars in loans . Last report that I read $4.12 trillion. And $1.5T of loans come due in Canada by January 2024. So even if 2% default, we have $30B in losses. And that's just Canada. Therefore, of the Canadian banks, which ones have the least exposure to the US. ? Today which ones are your recommendations?
Finally, in terms of deposit insurance, is it $100K per bank account or per individual taxpayer.? Brokerage account like RBC - Direct investing, the $1M is it for the total portfolio or just the cash? Again, per account or per investor?

Thank you
CR

Q: I wonder if any of the big six own any US or CAN MBS or CMBS ? Thanks a lot .

Q: Please rank the above companies for level of risk and do you think that our Canadian banks could ever be subject to the issues at SVB? Is BN risky? I read one person writing how his advisor won't let him buy it. Feeling like I don't have much trust in anything right now. How is an investor to handle this uncertainty? I definitely see the benefits of diversity as you had always pushed. I'm also somewhat confused as most advisors have been pushing financials due to the benefits associated with rising rates. Your calm advise would be appreciated.
Thank you!