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Investment Q&A

Not investment advice or solicitation to buy/sell securities. Do your own due diligence and/or consult an advisor.

Q: Please accept my apologies for what could be a request for a long-winded answer. You welcome to debit my 5i bankroll for 5 question credits in effort to better compensate you for your time.
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If possible, please provide your opinion on something I wish to term "Peak Credit" in Canada. We are all aware that Canadians are spending themselves into a life-long love affair with mortgages, lines of credit and credit cards. With Canadian interest rates at 35 year lows, the availability of loans and credit climb while region-specific real estate prices inflate to valuations that seem to defy logic. Young families in their 30's commonly have mortgage debt over $500k and barely earn the income to cover payments at today's rates.

In general, what is the mix of insured/un-insured mortgage debt on the books of Canadian banks? If wages are not keeping pace with inflation and the cost of living, how are Canadians ever going to own their own home? Are we doomed to a life of the English, where the concept of home ownership is more of a dream than it is a reality?

Do you feel banks in Canada are prepared for higher rates in the next 3yrs?

Is Canada showing the early signs of a credit bubble?

Do bank common stock investors have anything for fear?

Am I a coyote howling at the credit moon?


Thank you for your guidance. This topic should be on the minds of many Canadians.
Read Answer Asked by malcolm on March 08, 2017
Q: I have owned National Bank for a number of years. I have read the posts and your preference for TD and BNS. I presently feel that this may be an ideal time to make a switch. The P/E of National Bank (according to Google) is presently quite high, especially for a bank, in my opinion. It is presently a few points higher than both TD and BNS (and also has a slightly higher dividend as well). Is there something going on at the National bank that justifies this higher P/E, is it simply investor sentiment, the higher dividend...? If the P/E is unjustified, in time the stock will retreat and I would rather switch over when the price is higher. Your thoughts on switching over (dollar for dollar). Normally I do not like doing this because, it is not a dollar for dollar switch, after I pay taxes (but I am sure I can sell some losers as well). If you recommend the switch, why do you like TD and BNS more. Looking at the 5 year charts, I see that TD has performed well in comparison. BNS and NA are at about par (assuming NA can sustain the PE or increase its EPS at a higher rate than the other banks). I assume that if the switch is recommend, I do it 50/50? Thanks.
Read Answer Asked by Walter on January 31, 2017
Q: I need help with my TFSA. I should be at $51,000 as I added this year's amount. I am sitting at $39,500 with the following stocks - FCF, HCG, NA and STB. Could you make any recommendations to help this account get back on it's feet? To other investors, my biggest loss was from ABX, where I lost $8000. Be careful with Gold products.
Read Answer Asked by Ken on January 09, 2017
Q: Hi 5i team :

would you buy National at this point (46.19) ?, the financial report issued today "looks" OK, but the price drop is concerning. Also many analysts have it as a "hold", why ?. Would you prefer CIBC instead ?, yields and forwards P/E are very similar for both according to Thomson Reuters.

thanks !
Read Answer Asked by Alejandro (Alex) on September 01, 2016
Q: I am struggling to understand the relationship between dividends from common shares versus preferreds. I understand the the preferred shares will be paid before the common shares. However preferred shares do not participate in any future dividend growth rates. As an example National Bank common shares (trading at $44.09)are offering annual dividend of $2.20 (yield of 4.99%) .The recent issue of national bank preferred NA.PR.A issue price of $25 offer dividend of $1.35 (yield of 5.4%). If the div on common were to grow by a modest 3% over the next 5 years the dividend would be $2.55 or 5.78% surpassing the preferred shares by almost .4%. Historically the div growth rate had been 10.5% which would make the case to own the common shares more compelling.
The argument that can be made for preferreds is when the company becomes distressed the dividends on the preferreds would be paid first. However is the protections really of values as both the share price of the common and preferred will most likely fall when the company is in distress.

My question is how do you calculate the breakeven between common versus preferred shares when looking at the dividends.

Regards...Antoine
Read Answer Asked by Antoine on June 30, 2016
Q: Regarding the much anticipated new portfolio picks: I am not looking to put words in your mouth, but is part of your thinking here related to the periodic tendency of the market to swoon/ re-trench around this time of year ..... commonly phrased as "Sell in May and Go Away." .... except you will add a new wrinkle to it and step in when others are abandoning stocks at attractive "buy" prices?

Thanks.
Read Answer Asked by Donald on April 11, 2016
Q: Hi Peter and Staff
This isnt really a question on a stock(s) but on approach. I was waiting like a lot of people for todays portfolio changes. There were a lot of deletions and not many additions and a build up of cash which I am not used to hearing as advice from you. Other than AYY and PMH ,a lot of deletions were not due to being upset at the stock.....If I sold what you sold, and do not believe in keeping cash,how long will it be until you uncover new gems for us to use the cash or should I just hold off selling some of your deletions/reductions until we know?
Thanks for all you do
Dennis
Read Answer Asked by Dennis on April 04, 2016
Q: I am hoping to retire in the next couple of years. If I can get a 4% return on my portfolio, I believe I'll be in great shape for many years. Recognizing that National is not your favourite bank, I can't help but look at the 6% return and wonder why I wouldn't buy this as a solid income producer. Canadian Banks (including NA)are very well regulated and if they all go under, we'll all have very big problems. Am I missing something or perhaps to ask the question another way, do you see a better place to get a fairly secure 6% return for many years into the future?
Read Answer Asked by Dave on February 11, 2016
Q: Hi All. I went to sell some MDA this morning in my Investorline account. The price quoted was 82.80 and the bid/ask quotes were 82.49/82.81. I noticed on my phone however a price of 83.71. Going to Stockwatch.com, I saw the last trade at 83.71. Had I not back-checked the information, I potentially could have sold at quite a discount based on the BMO information. What's going on here? Is this a typical situation that I just wasn't aware of?
Read Answer Asked by Rick on February 11, 2016
Q: Hello 5i:
another comment on Paul's question re: filling up the truck; now $58, used to be $80, and why is there not more of a saving. First, that is a 27.5% decrease. Stated another way: its like being paid 27.5% more. Who would not take that?
Additionally, that is $22 on one fill. How many times do you fill the truck per week, per month, per year. The savings really begin to accumulate (or more money to spend). I lived in samll town BC for quite some time, and remember paying $1.42/litre. Try that one on for size and watch the paycheque disappear.
just my opinion, publish if you feel like it
Paul L
Read Answer Asked by Paul on January 22, 2016
Q: I would like your opinion of selling NA (my current holdings of NA are 13.3% of a total CDN-Margin A/C dedicated to financials of 42.9 (RY & TD). The only other holding is CNR (56.2%)... I know it is way overweight for a single holding, but suffice to say I know this and am prepared to carry this risk (it has worked out well for 20 years)
My thoughts are to buy BCE (1000 shares) & EIF (1000 shares) to diversify a bit from financials. I currently hold no telecoms, and I like the dividend paid by EIF (assuming it is fairly secure).
Your thoughts would be greatly appreciated.

P.S. My capital gains on NA would be offset by losses on BB.

Thanks in adavance,
Scot
Read Answer Asked by Scot on November 27, 2015
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