Q: UBER has reported strong Q1 2026 results : 21% constant-currency growth in bookings and a non-GAAP EPS of $0.72 vs. $0.70 consensus. Despite being rated a 'Strong Buy' by major firms (Evercore, TD Cowen, RBC, CFRA) and delivering 44% YoY earnings growth, the shares remain ~25% below their early 2025 highs (and recently dropped below 200-day average).
I understand the autonomous vehicle (AV) overhang and threat from Waymo and Tesla’s Robotaxi. Both expanding their footprints. Uber seems well-run and is growing and diversifying its business. And it appears to be pivoting toward an asset-light 'partnership layer' for autonomous fleets.
Questions:
1. Capex Risk: If the partnership model fails to scale, is there a risk that UBER will be forced to buy and operate its own fleet in a few years, structurally shifting from a capital-light software business to a capital-heavy transport business?
2. Disintermediation: If Tesla or Waymo successfully vertically integrate their own ride-hailing apps, does UBER’s moat (199 million monthly active users) hold enough weight to preserve margins? In your analysis, even when autonomous cars become a commodity, will UBER's 25–30% take-rate not be squeezed?
3. Stock price shows divergence between record profitability and stagnant price action. In your opinion, sell and move on? Or is this a strategic entry point? Could be dead money for the next 12-24 months? (UBER One membership has grown to 50 million members. I find myself frequently saying “Let’s Uber it....” , which is now a customer habit worldwide for many. But I ask : when autonomous cars become a commodity, would UBER's 25–30% take-rate not get squeezed? :ao:
I understand the autonomous vehicle (AV) overhang and threat from Waymo and Tesla’s Robotaxi. Both expanding their footprints. Uber seems well-run and is growing and diversifying its business. And it appears to be pivoting toward an asset-light 'partnership layer' for autonomous fleets.
Questions:
1. Capex Risk: If the partnership model fails to scale, is there a risk that UBER will be forced to buy and operate its own fleet in a few years, structurally shifting from a capital-light software business to a capital-heavy transport business?
2. Disintermediation: If Tesla or Waymo successfully vertically integrate their own ride-hailing apps, does UBER’s moat (199 million monthly active users) hold enough weight to preserve margins? In your analysis, even when autonomous cars become a commodity, will UBER's 25–30% take-rate not be squeezed?
3. Stock price shows divergence between record profitability and stagnant price action. In your opinion, sell and move on? Or is this a strategic entry point? Could be dead money for the next 12-24 months? (UBER One membership has grown to 50 million members. I find myself frequently saying “Let’s Uber it....” , which is now a customer habit worldwide for many. But I ask : when autonomous cars become a commodity, would UBER's 25–30% take-rate not get squeezed? :ao:
