Q: Hi, Transcontinental Inc was added to Income Portfolio in June, 2018 at $31.58 for 4% position and later beefed up by additional 1% in October. The thesis was a solid dividend yield of 2.50%, high growth expectations based on transformative Coveris acquisition and a low PE multiple. Stock, however, failed to perform as expected and price fell off the cliff within a short period and never recovered since then. Two subsequent quarters have been disappointing and Coveris integration ( acquisition closed May, 2018) is nowhere in sight. Management has also not been able to address the issues and market concerns, effectively. Company legacy business is already declining. Most analysts have cut their estimates and price targets drastically. One analyst also commented that due to these issues, compnay may even lose some contarct renewals and recurring revenues. Even if we are optimistic and Coveris acquisition issues are resolved by end of 2019, it could take another 2 years, before stock goes back to $31.58, in order to just recover our principal.
So, while the stock is trading at a low multiple and company just increased its dividend 4.6%, keeping its tradition, is it worth the wait (and take the risk) or there are better opportunities to use our capital ? We have gone through a similar scenario with TSGI, only worse and in that case even after almost a year and 55% loss, there seems to be little hope. Thank You
So, while the stock is trading at a low multiple and company just increased its dividend 4.6%, keeping its tradition, is it worth the wait (and take the risk) or there are better opportunities to use our capital ? We have gone through a similar scenario with TSGI, only worse and in that case even after almost a year and 55% loss, there seems to be little hope. Thank You
