Investment Q&A

Q: I'm in the middle of switching my portfolio to a much more simple style. I've always indexed my US exposure with ETFs like VOO and VFV and have bought individual Canadian stocks just because the Canadian index is so unbalanced, holding mostly resources and financials.

I've looked at VGRO and VBAL as well as XGRO and XBAL. I'm hesitant to buy them because they have a high percentage to the Canadian index. I also don't want emerging markets or any EAFE exposure. I'm a huge fan of Jack Bogle and he preached that all anyone needed was the S&P 500 and a bond fund. Since app. 48% of S&P 500 sales are non US, it seems to me investing in EAFE is unnecessary.

My plan is to go 60%US and 40% bonds. Since Canada represents just 3% of the worlds markets, why do most Canadian investing professionals say to put 30% or more in Canada? Doesn't make any sense to me! Thanks for your help.

Q: I recently attended a fall 2019 session of Larry Berman Live. His prediction was for a recession in 2020 or 2021 and he recommended that investors adjust their portfolios accordingly. I am interested in 5i's thoughts about an upcoming recession and whether 5i members should become more defensive with their portfolios.

Q: B of C has held rates however outlook is projecting perhaps a further rate cut. Household debt load is at an all time high, with little or no margin available for emergency requirements.
Personally I cannot help that a Day of reckoning is coming, as debt servicing for majority of Canadians is coming to a bubble, similar to the 2007-2008 crisis. When home values become an ATM, debt levels only increase further.
What is 5i opinion of this going forward, and if this does occur, would this be the catalyst for the next financial crisis.
Thanks Rick

Q: My question concerns my rif which has 50% cash right now with u.s. div. stocks representing that 50% invested. I am considering investing equally in usmv - aem and cwb (convertible bond etf) in this rif. Does this make sense in todays investment market with the u.s indexes at all time highs and trading sideways or should i hold that cash into year end . That cash in the rif represents about 23% of my overall cash position. We are 70 yoa with enough income from canadian dividend stocks to supply us with our living so look at this amount as next generation money...thanks for the great service...

Q: Hello 5i,
I am 73 years old, a value investor. Except for Chartwell (bounces around), NFI and Pasons, all the rest are doing well ( not so ZPR, CLF and CBO). I am up $10,000 on many of my 50 equities but these individually are not over 2% of holdings. I do not need the money and see no reason to sell my winners. Thus since there are no losers, as such, to sell and I think I should keep my winners. With all this talk of tax loss selling: do I, at this point, have a dire need for tax loss selling? I do not think so, but then again, that is just me.
Thank you
Stanley

Q: is there a currency that Canadians could buy with Canadian dollars that is safer than our money . I am thinking that Canada's growing deficits, may not be good for the value of our dollar.

Q: With the Bloc doing so well in the election and the PM sure to lavish our taxes their way, what companies generate a lot of income from Quebec, and/or are candidates for charity ? Thanks.

Q: Tech stocks have taken a beating over the last two months, due to high valuations and a shift to value stocks. Do you foresee a continuation of this trend into tax loss selling season and further drops, then finally bottoming out into the new year, or are we now dealing with just normal volatility?

Q: The issue of mutual funds holding negative yielding global gov't bonds is an interesting one as the size of negative yielding bonds keeps rising. The lack of cash flow to finance management fees, and pressures on portfolio managers to play the yield curve to list a couple of examples sounds very tricky. Have you explored the subject in your shop?

Q: I have read about the new TSX30 index. Is there an ETF yet that follows it?

Q: I continue to struggle to find the right level of diversification, especially fixed income in my portfolio. One of the strong reasons for my struggle is the recent very strong bond performance and concerns that I am too late.

The standard rule of thumb 60/40 blend is challenged here. I am wondering if you saw this article on the Globe’s website. Could you take a look at the article and share your thoughts on Merrill Lynch’s thesis ? As well as the suggestion of using dividend paying stocks as, at least, a particle substitute.

Thanks.

.... from the Globe and Mail Investor website ( a partial excerpt...)

The 60-per-cent fixed income, 40-per-cent equity portfolio has been an important benchmark for balanced funds and overall asset allocation for decades.

Merrill Lynch analyst Jared Woodard, however, believes the 60/40 portfolio is now far less relevant because of the rising risks in bond markets.

In The End of 60/40, Mr. Woodard cites three reasons that bonds may no longer provide the portfolio stability and consistency they once did.

The first reason is that bond portfolios have not been providing diversification. He writes, “The core premise of every 60/40 portfolio is that bonds can hedge against risks to growth and equities can hedge against inflation; their returns are negatively correlated."

The problem in recent years is that periods of major market weakness have seen both bonds and equities fall.

In the U.S., longer duration government bonds have generated terrible risk-adjusted returns over the past three years - lower than junk bonds and emerging market equities. This means that investors who bought Treasury bonds for steady returns and lower portfolio volatility have seen volatility actually increase.

The data is U.S. based, but the performance of U.S. and Canadian long-term bonds has been virtually identical, as this chart posted to social media underscores.

Mr. Woodard’s final warning about bonds concerns overcrowding. He notes that globally, the fund manager allocation to U.S. Treasury debt is close to a 20 year high. So far in 2019, investors worldwide have sold US$208-billion from equity funds and bought $339-billion worth of bond funds.

With government bonds so popular, the analyst is concerned that “Crowded positioning means that natural swings in bond prices may be exacerbated as active investors rebalance their holdings.”

To the extent that Canadian investors have made the same switch to fixed income – and the 38 per cent increase in the market capitalization of the iShares Core Canadian Universe Bond Index ETF suggests fixed income has been popular domestically - these risks are also present here.

Q: Does your crystal ball predict a recession in the next six to twelve months.

Clayton

Q: BABA & other Chinese Companies got hit from Trump's comment re not listing of Chinese Companies in New York. .Assume this would be for new listings and not effect Companies presently listed. This downward move effects U S Pension Funds and U S Citizens that hold Chinese companies . Not a smart move. China holds $ 1 4 Trillion US Treasuries. All they have to do is start selling these U S treasuries in retaliation to his moves. Your comments please .
RAK

Q: What do you think the impeachment proceedings will mean in the us dollar ? Will this effect the psu.u performance ? I am about to invest a large amount of us dollars in this fund, will it be affected ? Would you give some insight as to how the us dollar performed during previous impeachments please.
Cheers, Doug

Q: Would you please be able to provide me with sector percentage allocations at this time for a retired couple with both having a pension and CPP and not using funds from our registered accounts until time of required withdrawal in approx .6 years ? We are not completely Conservative -we have been Balanced with a Growth bias. Thank you for your assistance. I have appreciated the learning opportunites with my 5i membership over approximately 5 years.

Q: I have read the Fed is continuing to pump 75 billion daily into the banking system to provide liquidity. Is this true and if so does this mean there could be a banking crisis on the horizon, and or,is there problems with the US economy . Is investing in real estate a safer alternative to the stock market at this point in time.

Q: I am going to add Gold to my portfolio and am looking for your advice. I really like the Franco-Nevada model being that they have royalties and do not own mines, but it seems quite expensive? Thoughts on evaluations etc ? Depending on your thoughts I would like to add FNV and an actual gold miner. The ones I have listed have a larger market cap as I am not interested in too small of gold miners.

With all the things going on in the world right now, how concerned are you of a recession in the US that will drag Canada into it? The flags I am concerned about right now are: 10yr bull market, US balance sheet issues, repos, inverted yield curve, Fed policy (decreasing interest rates), trade war, global slowing. A lot of other countries hold US paper........ It makes you wonder how much more debt the US can endure and maintain a strong dollar.

We all know that there is going to be a correction at some point in the future....but something to me feels different about what is coming. Maybe I am just a paranoid investor...I have to quit watching the prepper shows!

Besides gold what is the best way to protect ourselves in the event that the US has a financial crisis that affects their dollar?

Q: I am currently holding the following investments in almost equal amounts (20-25K per):
AQN, BNS, BCE, ZAG, ZEM. BEP.UN. CU. ENB. FTS, NPI, RY, PEGI. PPL. REI.UN. SLF, TRP. T. FN. TD, VXC. VSP plus $8K cash.

Are any of these questionable in your opinion? Are there other areas that would assist allocation? I am 72 , retired and need the additional income,

Q: Can you please recommend a value ETF in Canadian and USA dollars. Which one is your favourite value ETF

Canada
Global
USA

Thanks for your great service
Hector

Q: What sectors are best for stagflation?
What sectors preformed best during the 1970’S?