Investment Q&A

Q: It appears that pre-1984 the P/E ratio of the S&P 500 could go below 10 at times (not clear on what measure -looks like trailing earnings), apparently in recessions. But since then, no sub-10's. Is there a reason we may now be in to a new era of P/E norms ie well above 10 and if so for what reasons? If we were to go down there now that would be pushing a 35-50% drop from here, depending on what P/E measure ( and much further if earnings are adjusted down). Also, Josh Brown (CNBC) pointed out this 9-range P/E ratio in recessionary times as in if we get a recession look out below--any comment on his comments?

Q: Can you pls explain why China has only 2% inflation, while the US has 8% inflation!?..if so...why are we all not buying Chinese stocks?

Q: Hi There,
Can you suggest a method where one can estimate the realtime Equity Risk Premium for US market and Canadian Market using ETF's. Can you also give a guide as to what values may cause investors to shift between the risky asset and the safe asset for US and Canadian markets. Thanks

Q: Is the time for buying longer term bonds, like SHY or even TLT coming closer?
Thanks

Q: What do you think about tax-loss selling each of the above companies at this point? If in favour, do you think I should buy 30 day proxies for each, and if so, what companies? Thanks.

Q: Stagflation. How does one preserve capital?

Thanks!

Q: What’s your outlook for SAP and is it good candidate for a defensive hold over the summer months.Maybe any other suggestions in the space…
Thanks.

Q: On a 1 (unlikely) to 10(very likely) scale how much likelihood do you place in recent predictions of people like Michael Burry and Jeremy Grantham that this is just the start of the bear market, and that markets could drop a further 50% from here?

Q: If one has spent years building a diversified portfolio of mainly equities in quality companies and one is reliant on the portfolio for income what is your advice during a bear market? To sell and exit the market one could finally get decent rates on GICs but you would never know when to reenter the market and eventually GIC rates could go down leaving you without enough income. Plus you get dividend tax credit. Does one just close eyes and collect the dividends. I know some fund managers sell but I feel like this is the wrong thing to do. Your insight helping us through these difficult market times is really valuable.

Q: Is there a reason that the vix has currently not spiked more? Does not the current market warrant a good panic? Thanks.

Q: In your latest report (6-17) you state
"the main three forces that we have seen across rising commodities prices are adverse weather conditions (drought), the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and concentrated country risk"
However you failed to address perhaps the most significant cause of inflation which is the Fed money printing.
Why is that?

Q: Hi Peter, Do you think so called July hike by Fed and recession fears are already reflected upto some extent in today's market ?

Q: Good day team,

First things first, thanks for your steady advice during this downturn. A calming voice is very much appreciated.

My portfolio so far is adequately diversified. Believe it or not it is still up on the year. I have some play money which Im planning on using to make a bet against commodities, in particular copper and/or oil and gas. One idea comes to mind is buying puts against TECK. Any other suggestions? Either stocks or ETFs?

Q: Hi Ryan,
Several years ago I engaged with 5i for a portfolio analysis. I'm a recently retired investor. 5i strongly encouraged me to include a fixed income component to stabilize portfolio fluctuations and lower volatility.

With that advice and for tax purposes I purchased XBB, CLF, and PMIF into my RRSP. Now that the interest rates are marching steadily upwards I'm in a significant capital loss situation on my portfolio's bond allocation.

At this point do you suggest I just hold through the cycle and absorb the loss or should I sell and reallocate funds? Perhaps into some solid Canadian dividend payers? (eg. GWO?)

As always, much appreciate your advice and guidance in these unprecedented times. Thank-you.

Q: Everyone, well the feds raised rates and will raise again next meeting. Are the rates increases what the market was looking for? Clayton

Q: These large behemoths have been decimated in varying degrees. Would you please rank them and would you buy now for a long hold on what seems like a huge sale on quality leaders? Thanks.

Q: I was listening to Ross Healy on BNN Market Call this morning, and he thinks the NASDAQ composite could drop by 75-80% off its peak. I also saw a headline on the same show whereby a Manulife survey indicated that 25% of homeowners would sell their homes if interest rates continue to climb upwards. Can you comment on the historical relationship between stock prices and house prices? For example, if stocks tank, will house prices follow downwards? Or if house prices drop significantly, can we expect a major market sell off?

Q: Hi there, I hold a large amount of my portfolio in these broad based ETFs. I have about 30% in cash. At these levels, would you be adding to these indexes for a long term hold? How likely do you think it is that we would see SPY at 3300 to 3400 range? What would your strategy be to deploy my cash position into equities? Thank you!

Q: Peter and His Wonder Team
Please give your assessment of this company going forward. The price is cheap and I am thinking it might be a good long term contrarian play...even with inflation we have to eat. How risky would a buy be...better to wait for a lower price...I see we are now officially in a bear market...are we getting near the bottom? Thanks as always...your opinions are always valued.

Q: I have been hearing a lot of negative views on the stock market lately because of rising inflation/interest rates. I had a look at the US 10 year bond rates, compared to the S & P 500 level over the last 60 years. The 10 year moved up over 8% in roughly the 1978/1979 period and basically stayed there until roughly 1991, with a peak of over 15%. During that time, the S & P 500 went from roughly the 400 level to around 850, so the market more than doubled. Inflation was also very high then, and unemployment was much higher than it is now. It seems curious to me that so many people are so negative about the stock market, citing rising rates/inflation as the reason, when the market performed quite well during an extended period of much higher rates. Wondering if you had any comments about this.