Investment Q&A

Q: When a correction (5-15% downturn) is in process, how can you tell that it is simply a correction as opposed to a bear market (greater than 20% downturn)? What metrics do you use to tell the difference between a correction versus a bear market?

Q: I am trying to make a plan for what I will specifically do when the next correction comes. I am making a list of stocks that I will buy. I have set aside some cash. My plan is to spend 25% of my cash at each 5% downturn interval. So when the market corrects 5% I will spend 25%. If the market corrects another 5% I will spend another 25%. My plan is too keep going until I run out of cash. When I do run out of cash (when the market is down 20%) I would tap into a line of credit using the same strategy.

What do you think of this plan? Is it a good way to manage a correction? If not, can you suggest a better way? Thank you.

Q: On BNN this morning it stated our Canadian Stock Market ranked 96th out 100 world markets. Is there any way to find the figure for foreign buying of Canadian stocks and compare these figures to the past. Are we not in play due to Nafta changes coming and fear of Pres. Trump.,the low demand for commodities, our Liberal Governments Federal & Ontario Provincial, NDP in Alberta and BC. Our high home prices in Toronto and B C and fear of real Estate Collapse or What ? RAK

Q: My overall portfolio is down 3% the last 6-8 weeks which I justify as the downside of having equities in the portfolio. I am 40% in cash so the drawdown could have been worse. My concern is that the 3% drawdown is just over $20000 and that is a lot of money. We are 70 with defined benefit pensions and really don't need any more capital; just want to preserve what we have. You preach the downside of market timing, but I see $ 20000 worth of paper gains slipping through our fingers. Short of investing 100% in gic's should someone with my profile be more of a trader ie use tight downside tolerances and sell when a predetermined gain or loss is met rather than buy and hold. Please comment as I very much value your opinion. Thank you.

Q: I just read this from a respected member of an American investment service and would like to know your thoughts. Do you agree with his reason that the fund industry does their tax loss selling in September? If so, is this the case in Canada also?

"If anyone out there expects to do tax loss selling this year, I have a few words of wisdom for you.
September is the worst month of the year for the market historically. Look it up, you'll see. The reason September is such a poor performing month is that the fund industry does their tax loss selling in September because that's the end of their fiscal year. They don't operate on calendar year.
The reason we usually get a Santa Claus rally is because wash rules have been exhausted, cash has been raised, and cash goes back to work because fund charters stipulate they can't hold over a certain percentage of cash.
So, if you are going to sell something for tax losses, and want to buy the company back a little later and establish a lower cost basis, the time to do your selling is in August, prior to the funds doing their selling. You'll have time for the wash rules to play out so that you can reinvest in time for the Santa Claus rally."

Q: Hi 5i,

I currently have 14% of my portfolio in materials, which include MX (3.2%), CCL (4.25%), ZCL (3.47%) and AEM (2.84%).

I also have 12% of my portfolio in consumer non-disc, which include PBH (4.85%), DOL (3.47%) and ZZZ (3.2%).

For a growth oriented investor with 30 years until retirement what do you recommend as an appropriate allocation to materials and consumer non-disc? I will need to trim my holdings in each of these sectors to re-balance as I feel I am overweight so any suggestions on what should go?

Thank you as always,

Jon

Q: In my portfolio, small cap and technology has weakened in the last two months, yet l see indexs making new highs, at least in the US, where are the gains; sectors?

Q: Hello again. I’m interested to know how to consider currency when deciding between hedged, unhedged, and US dollar ETFs. In your answer to my last question, you mentioned that you prefer VPL over VAH; how was currency a factor in your judgment? Also wondering if you would approach European ETFs similarly, with respect to fluctuations between the Euro, USD and CAD (e.g. VEH, VE, VGK). Are there separate currency considerations I should take into account for each region, including EM? (e.g. VEE vs VWO)

When I hear professionals recommend CAD-hedged ETFs when the USD is falling, it sounds tactical but what if an investor has a long time horizon in mind? I’ve heard that unhedged ETFs yield better returns over time, say for a period of 15 years, but I’m wondering if US dollar ETFs are even more preferable, considering that I’ve already got some US cash ready to deploy.

Thanks for clearing up my confusion!

Q: Greetings Peter and company,

Having been a do it yourself investor for over 50 years and a committed index ETF investor for the last 10, I am very impressed with what you are doing.

Assume that investors put half their money into a US index ETF (say SPY) and the other half into a US money market fund. They re-balance when the ratio changes by 10% in either direction and withdraw 1% quarterly to cover living expenses. Will this no-brainer portfolio grow over the next decade? Will it equal or even outperform the i5 Growth Model Portfolio? (Projected 12% annualized long term return. Since the bottom of 2008, the S&P 500 has had a 14.5% annualized return.)

I would appreciate your views on this. Your responses, as far as I have seen, have been uniformly thoughtful.

Thank you.

Milan

Q: Portfolio Managers are saying US Stocks are expensive and they are buying Europe and Emerging Markets. What about Canada ? Is the uncertainty regarding US Tariffs holding TSE back ? DOW is hitting New Highs . We are not ? Is it also because we are a commodity economy. Are we just out of favour until world economies start to show growth which will drive commodities higher ? Oil also seems range bound $ 40.00 - $ 50.00 Not good for Canada !
RAK

Q: I have a large investment in VFV and would appreciate your opinion if I should sell my position in favor of VSP S&P 500 hedged? With thanks, Bill

Q: Hello 5i team,
I greatly appreciate your response to my question regarding the effect of a recession in a 74 year old’s RRIF portfolio. I retain from your response the following:
Asset allocation: one third of my retirement income comes from CPP, OAS and a very small defined benefit pension; one can’t have a better fixed income vehicle as that!
Cash: it currently stands at 6.5% of my RRIF portfolio; I’d like to increase it to around 12% or the equivalent of 2 years of minimum withdrawals.
Quality companies and Diversification: I currently hold the following companies; they are listed in alphabetical order and I would appreciate to know how you would rank them within their sector
Consumer cyclical (6.6% of portfolio) CGX, LNR/MG, TOY
Consumer non-cyclical (7.6%) ATD.B, DOL, PBH
Energy (8.4%) ENB, KEY, PKI, TOU, VET, WCP
Financial (8.7%) AIF, BNS, ECN, SLF, TD
Health (3.1%) CRH, GUD, PLI; thinking of replacing CRH and PLI with ZUH
Industrials (11.7%) BYD.UN, CNR, NFI, SIS, STN/WSP; where would CAE fit?
Materials (9.5%) AEM, CCL.B, MX, SJ
Technology (22.8%) CLS, CSU, DSG, ENGH, GIB.A, KXS, MDA, OTC, PHO, SHOP
Real Estate (5.8%) CIGI, FSV, TCN
Telco (2.2%) BCE
Utilities (7.1%) AQN, BEP.UN, BIP.UN
There are 48 stocks; that is too much to handle for my hardening grey cells. Your ranking would help me identify which ones to eventually sell.
Please deduct as many credits as you wish.
Kind regards,
Antoine

Q: Good morning Peter et al. I have $68K in a rrsp and $80K In a cash account to invest. A full position in each account is $20K. Time frame is 3 to 5 years. I have full positions in other accounts of shop,pbh,gud,nfi,sis, and toy. My thought was to add Boyd, CAE in each. I also have 1/2 position in Photon. Can you give me some direction on what else to add other than going bluechip defensive.
Thanks in advance david

Q: Regarding equity income generated in a RRIF, would the following diversification be adequate in a rising rate enviroment and also a recessionary backdrop?

banks & lifeco 60%, CPD 10%, utilities 10%, telco 10% and staples 10%. I am assuming all dividends would be considered safe. Can you buy into this approach?

Q: Hello 5i team,
I’m 74 years old; with due diligence and with the contribution of people like you, my RRIF portfolio is behaving very well. My plan is to deplete the RRIF portfolio at age 90. The revenue from this portfolio will continue at the same level if I get a 7% compound annual total return in the next 16 years.
Unfortunately, we expect a recession sometime during those years. If I were to ride the recession, the value of the portfolio would stand still for (let’s say) 5 years and if the portfolio were to grow by 7% in each of the remaining years, my revenue would drop by a whopping one third. In order to maintain the expected level of revenue, my excel projection model indicates that I should obtain a 20% growth per annum instead. That is unrealistic.
Alternatively, I could do what I did in 2008. I sold my holdings after incurring a 15% decline and re-entered the market a few months after it bottomed and started on its recovery path. If I did that and planned for a 7% growth per annum, the revenue would drop by 13% only. That is quite acceptable because there is a 10-15% safety margin in my revenue forecast…a cushion of sorts.
If, however, I knew when the recession will occur, I would exit the market ahead of time and re-enter after the bottom…”but that is another story”.
I would greatly appreciate your collective opinion.
Best regards,
Antoine

Q: Good morning Peter,

When looking at reversion to the mean, the near-term chart can be different from the long-term chart. For instance, the one-month chart for QQQ at closing on Friday, July 7, shows it to be below the mean suggesting a good buying time. However, the 10-year chart shows it to be significantly above its mean suggesting a good time to take profits.

Which is the more important indicator?

Thank you.

Milan

Q: I see a couple of concepts repeated in your answers: 1) if you have a short term need for cash (buying a house within 1-2 years eg) you should hold cash or cash-like investments (i.e., not equities), and (2) in general, some equity investments may be ok, but only for a 3-5 year hold.

Can you walk through the mechanics of how to deal with the situation of investing when you know you'll need cash after, say, 4 years? Do you buy good diversified equities (eg BE portfolio) and hold for 4 years, committing to yourself to sell only on the day before the 4-year period is up? Or do you buy such equities, but then slowly rotate into cash (when?)? Or commit to rotating into cash at the 2-year mark or some other arbitrary date? Or do you assess the situation at the 2-year mark (e.g.) and hang on, or not, depending on whether the portfolio is high or low?

Wondering what your thoughts are on buy/sell strategy in such a scenario. Thanks.

Q: With interest rates likely increasing this month in Canada and also the USA, would you put any extra cash into bond funds (like CBO,XHY) or preferred shares right now; or wait to see if the prices decline with the new higher interest rates?

Thank you.

Q: Hi there, not really a stock specific question but more a psychological/behavioural question. Based on your experience, how often should one look at their portfolio? I, probably like many others, look at my portfolio far too frequently. I suspect this can be stress inducing and can lead to more possible losses than gain? How often do you recommend one to look at their portfolios? Thanks!

Q: Morning folks,

Could you please comment in regards to establishing positions in good quality companies that are so called expensive. I hear money managers refer to companies as to rich and need to wait for a pullback before getting in. With some companies a pullback might not even happen. As a long term investor does it really matter when an investor buys in. Could you elaborate.

Thank you.