Investment Q&A

Q: For the next 5 years, what would your asset allocation look like if you were building a portfolio today:

Money Market %
Canada index %
USA index %
International index %

For equity exposure, do you believe in the 100 - AGE rule of thumb?

Thank you

Q: Hi,
Brian asked about private equity on June 25. In your response you mention that private equity is not correlated to other assets. I am looking at the 10 year performance of PSP vs. SPY and their charts move up and down in almost perfect parallel (pre-COVID run ups, COVID crashes, post-COVID run ups, etc.), with PSP returning 93% and SPY 234%. On a 4-5 year time scale, PSP/SPY/NGPE move up and down in parallel as well. I am struggling to find a reason to invest in a private equity ETF based on this. Is it because an ETF, regardless of what it is investing in, is in fact correlated since it is traded like any other equity?
Thank you for all the great information your provide, Michael

Q: Thank you for your excellent answer to a very pertinent question by Brian this morning (25-06-2024) on Private equity.

You didn't include your all time favorite company BN :) How come? Also, sometime ago when I asked about non correlated assets, you had mentioned about the US companies like KKR,BX,BLK etc., They didn't get a mention in your answer to Brian either.

In your answer to Brian you had suggested ETFs both in the US and one in Canada. Do you have any particular preference?

Last but not the least, from your answers to various questions, I get the impression that you are not too concerned about the impending crash! You still seem optimistic. In that case increasing the allotment to Private equity is bit premature, no?

Take as many credits as it is warranted.

Many thanks.

Q: Hello 5i, Could you explain the recent amendments to Bill C-59 and how it will effect oil companies.

Q: In a non-registered US account, I wish to purchase anything Now that .. 1. Pays no dividends or interest. 2. Keeps up with real inflation ( US inflation is greatly understated ) 3. Would survive a 50 market crash largely unscathed. Already have 10% precious metals …… thanks - JP

Q: Are we Canadians fools? Rhetorical don’t answer that. My question is should we do what you do and not what you say. By that I mean should we invest 100% in the US market and forget about the Canadian stocks. It seems that we are 2%/year or so behind the US on a long term basis. We would easily make up the FX costs within one year. Currently you suggest 30% or so Cdn and I am not that low yet, but I do wonder if that target is too high.

A diehard Canadian who may also be a fool.

Q: this is a question about financial / portfolio advice in estate planning.
Assuming I were pass on, my 3 children all in their 20's , all still in university, they would stand to inherit a million each. What investment advice would you recommend for management of their inheritance. ( I know the Buffet advice, predominantly ETFs.)

I would be curious to survey 5istaff with children and 5istaff closer to their 20's for different view points.

thanks

Q: I think I know why more members don't use the Forum feature. It's a bit difficult to find! I suggest that you add a link in the top "Members, Market Data, Podcast, Blog, About...." Once members see the usefulness of the Forum, they will start using it, and there should be less "inappropriate" questions.

Q: Hi,
I read with interest your latest Market Update. I am curious, given your interest rate and market analysis, does the Russell 2000's performance (e.g., IWO) this year indicate anything to you about the possible future direction of markets and the economy? Thanks, Michael

Q: We have accounts in RRIF and TFSA. We like to keep approx 6 months of cash in case of economic downturn. Is this too long a period or keep 3 months and invest the rest to produce income. I thought maybe because of interest rates starting to come down it maybe would change economics to positive. Will elections play a role with all the gov't calling elections in the future. we have pensions and dividends that keep us happy .We live within our means.Thanks 5i

Q: Any predictions of when the $CAD is going to increase by about $.05 US? What will drive the increase?

Q: portfolio strategy question

I have adopted a dividend investment strategy of investing predominantly in canadian dividend paying equities and as expected am overweight in financials, telecom and utilities, this strategy allows me to sleep well at night, I am looking at enough dividend income from the portfolio to retire on and not have to touch the principle investment.

besides the lack of diversification in geography and sector. can you give me your opinion about concerns you may have with such a strategy and what you would suggest doing otherwise ?

Q: Well well...the stock market on both side of the border are in the red, at least for my 3 portfolios, aka income, balance and US. What gives???....thanks for any insight you can provide about this, aka RED.....tom

Q: There has been lots of good discussion about these 6 stocks on your forums section over the last year BDT, DRX, GSY, HPS.A, PRL, VHI. All have been big winners. Do you think they are still promising investments at current prices?

Q: Hi,
Can you provide a comment on the thesis that hyperinflation is coming and gold is the best protection as recently written about by Frank Giustra?

https://www.thestar.com/business/opinion/why-the-u-s-is-heading-for-hyperinflation-and-what-will-happen-when-it-arrives/article_aecbb71c-187b-11ef-9557-874c8614cf9c.html

I was surprised by some of the statements, like gold has outperformed the S&P500 since 2001.

Thank you.
Michael

Q: I use ratio analysis to help curb my buy enthusiasm. Please rate 200mda, rsi and macd for their ability to identify a buy situation. Thank you

Q: I’m hoping to get your current thinking on emerging markets. If I look at VEE as a proxy I see maybe a 50% gain over 12 years plus a small dividend, not exactly setting the world on fire but “ok” I guess as a diversifier. Do you see any catalysts suggesting the next 10 or 12 years could outperform? What about short term downside due the U.S. election? History suggests the final months leading up to U.S. elections are not great for the market and can be choppy, this year should be a doozy. Emerging markets I believe can be sensitive to the U.S. economy and the U.S. dollar in particular? Your thoughts are appreciated.

Q: Portfolio analysis relates that I am over in Energy by 16% and financials by 6%. I am well distributed in all the other sectors. I am a 78 year old value investor with some growth stocks. Energy: SU, CNQ, CVX. NXF, ENB, XOM, PKI, PSI, PPL: FINANCIALS: BAC, BNS, BKCC, HMAX, JPM MFC, SLF, X, TD. I enjoy the dividends as they help contend with the ever increasing taxes and surprise expenses such as a septic tank inspection, boat repairs, new garage doOrs and general upkeep. Should I just leave well enough alone or is this a big deal?
thank you for your excellent advicd and service.

Q: Hi 5i
I'm curious if there is any way of knowing (stats-wise) whether the "younger generation" expect interest rates to stabilize at the "normal" near zero rates vs "older generation" who are less inclined to believe that (making assumptions here)
I just read a question regarding the inevitable "long slow decline of rates" .... I'm not so sure being in the "middle generation" :)

What are your thoughts on what "normal" rates could/should be (coming from the "wiser generation").


Thanks

Q: Just a simple question.

Do you know why the TSX and DOW both have a huge pop at 3:35pm yesterday - less than half an hour before closing? TSX jumped about 200 point, any news there? Thanks.