Investment Q&A

Q: On Sunday, PBS Wealthtrack aired an interview with a well seasoned advisor, R. Kessler, who recommended to raise cash as the damage to the stock market will get worse before it gets better due to a severe recession etc. His case made a lot of sense, and I would be interested in your comments on this statement.

Thank you!

Q: I have been sitting out this market decline with inverse etfs and HUV. I see the major North American indexes have again broken support and are heading for 2016 levels. 2016 levels would appear to be an important support level BUT the time-frame of the current coronavirus lock-down that could go on, in one form or another, for many months. The Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team in collaboration with the WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling and other organizations put out a report on March 16 (available online) that recommends the type of drastic measures we are now seeing implemented globally (social distancing of the entire population, home isolation of cases and household quarantine of their family members, ...supplemented by school, university, and business closures) in order to prevent serious loss of life (2.2 million estimated in the US alone) and huge social and economic impacts. The release of this report is what swiftly galvanized the current global efforts to contain the virus over the past few days. These efforts may seem harsh but are essential to avoid the worst effects of the contagion (as we are seeing in places like Bergamo, Italy).

The report recommends that these measure be maintained (to avoid rebound) until a vaccine becomes available, and that is estimated to take 18 months or more.

Now, we all know markets hate uncertainty. Hence the unprecedented volatility over these past few weeks. I don't see a silver lining yet, except of course the prospect of getting past the pandemic, which is a real possibility now that the correct measures are being taken. Therefore, I don't see a need to buy anything until we have flattened the curve and the markets respond accordingly. Until then we are likely to face further declines (to who knows what levels) with periodic relief rallies. Again, I ask, am I missing something?

Q: On fundamentals (yield/PE revenue ..etc have we reached the levels of 2008 financial crises in particular for banks/utilities and REITS. Can you please explain if majority of REITS in particular residential (eg CAR.UN) would benefit from lower interest rates why are they going down?

Thanks

Q: Larry Berman noted money market levels are approaching highs witnessed after the 2008 crash creating a backlog of buying power, but He also noted that only when that is combined with a vix of about 40 ( currently around 70) will the market give a sign it is likely to turn around. He cautioned any big rebounds now are not a sign the market is turning for the better, we need the vix to come down first. Does this seem logical?

Q: This market is offering a wonderful opportunity to buy quality dividend paying companies at discounts that seem remarkable. I think this is a once in a decade opportunity. For the long term investor, who wants dividend income as well, this is a gift.

Q: So having been through the Great Recession and now the cornea virus, I finally get it. Review your portfolio ,sell those companies whose fundamentals are damaged and possibly beyond repair ( swallow the loss),deploy your cash after things have settled down and there is more clarity into stocks who have the potential to rebound much better than the stocks you have sold. Is that about it?

Q: Hi Peter

What % breakdown would you suggest for Horizon portfolio in cash account under current situation for new money. ( I currently have 50%HXCN/ 25%HXS/ 25%HXQ)? or suggest any changes. I don’t like bonds.

Thanks

Q: Hello 5i
Could you please compare the ‘87 vs the current crash in terms of depth of declines and the time it took to rebound to precrash levels?
Thanks
Dave

Q: Total insanity ! 2 historical drops in a few days?
Nowhere to hide everything is going down(except cash)even then CDN$ 69.17USD this AM. End of the world is coming according to Mr Market. One question I have: Is this the new norm with high frequency traders and market shorts for economic end cycles?
Your view would be very appreciated!

Q: Hi, I'm a retired, dividend-income investor. I took some profits and losses (to wipe out potential capital gains) over the last 5 weeks and am now planning on reinvesting the cash to top up some of my existing equities, up to my desired asset allocation. I want to leg in, in probably 3 waves over the next couple (?) of months, to top up ZWC, AD, AQN, AW, BNS, BCE, LNF, NWC, RY, TRP, WSP.

Can you please indicate which of the above equities you would allocate into which wave (in other words, does it look like the equity is "ready" for an investment OR should I continue to wait for a while)...or not at all (not worth any further investment).

Thanks for your help...Steve

Q: For fun, let’s assume that the markets will be shut down. What would that look like? I assume there would be some warning that they were to close, and that there would then be a lot of selling prior to that. Correct? If they were to close, how long might they close for, and what could we ‘expect’ would happen when they reopened? All very hypothetical, but whatever insights you have would be appreciated.
Also, today I tried to take money out of my personal chequing account, at TD, and they capped withdrawals at $2500 per person, per day. I’ve never had that before. Concerning?
Thank you.

Q: What is the best way to go long on Volatility? What are your thoughts on this?

Q: First and foremost looks like the 5i team is working overtime to keep up with all the questions to ensure us members are not waiting long to get answers. Much appreciated! Compared to 2008 are the governments responding faster this time around and is the play book the same or different this time? Trying to see if all of these measures will have the same benefits as before?

Q: China's economy seems to be coming back. Something I ordered in January has finally been shipped. The streets in Beijing are getting busier and of course the Trump administration seems to have finally taken the threat seriously.
If the current shutdown is successful and the incubation period is 14 days would you think it reasonable to see signs of improvement after a month or so?
Your thoughts are appreciated.
Mike

Q: What has been proving to be non-correlated to equities in this market? From a quick look, not really the usual suspects such as bonds, gold or even bitcoin. I expect the best answer to this question will come with more hindsight, but appreciate your views. Thanks!

Q: retiring next week and now this happens
i will be totally dependent on dividend income
yes, i should have bond income but i don't
ytd shows:
50% of dividend portfolio is <20%>
50% at <37%>
should i sell <37%> portion to protect portfolio?

Q: I have a few questions about negative interest rates:
1) how low was the US and Canadian bank rates back in the worst of 2008, and where are they today
2) what major economies currently have negative rates/for how long/how low (or high?)
3) for those countries with negative rates, has this affected the dividends paid blue-chip stocks on their exchanges
4) what are the best investments for "hiding out" should we get to negative rates
5) could you hazard a guess as to the likelihood of negative rates in N. America
Thank-you

Q: Hello 5i Gurus,
The central bank authorities at the Bank of England and the ECB have, this past week given authorization to all banks (domiciled in the UK or Europe) that they will be allowed to release ALL of their strategic counter cyclical funds that they normally hold in reserve. From what I remember, this would be several hundreds of billions of pounds or euros. Question is: Does the US and Canada have similar "counter cyclical funds" (not sure if this is the correct terminology)? that they can use to support the economy temporarily?

Q: We Canadian like to drive and are willing block pipelines our resources re not worth anything if don’t export them our motor industry is dead how long government will be willing to pay our mortgages and pump funds in to our economy on borrowed funds
I think we re very near reccesion or let’s say reality check
Can I have your opinion on my assessment
We Canadians have very high debt so is our governments

Q: Can you comment on the repo purchases that have been ongoing and have ramped up recently in the US. Does this add another layer of concern to the markets or just what needs to be done in times like these? Is there any holding that might benefit from this?