Investment Q&A

Q: Explain this to me like I'm a ten year old. The US consumes 5M tonnes of aluminum annually. They produce 750K tons. They import roughly 3M tonnes from Canada and now a tariff. Don't our producers just say cool, increase the price 25% and we're even. Who loses here? Who has who by the you know what's? Last time our exports dropped just 14% ( the US customers had bulked up on buying when tariffs were signalled) and within two years everything was back to normal. I don't get it. Is it all just posturing and bluster? Unless the US immediately stops using aluminum aren't they the real losers here?

Q: Presuming that the price of steel goes up with tariffs, outside of the steel industry itself, what sectors and specific companies lose out here? Thank-you.

Q: Hi Peter and Team,

I notice that you often state that stocks did well under Trump's first term.

With all due respect, Trump 2.0 is, in my own view and the view of many others, Trump 2.0 is a different 'kettle of fish' than Trump 1.0. One needs only to look at both Canadian and US media to see the complete chaos that Trump is causing on both sides of the border.

Thanks.

Q: Hi,
I read with great interest Lisa and Peter’s questions and your answers on Feb. 10 about Trump, US holdings and economic warfare.
Given Trump is now making noises about how some US debt could be fraudulent, and the US may not owe as much as the Treasury reports, I see new risks.
For instance, as part of his economic warfare against Canada, could he by the stroke of a pen declare Canadian held US debt is fraudulent to put pressure on Canada to become the 51st state? Further, could he freeze Canadian held assets in the US (securities, real estate, business assets, etc.) to further pressure Canada?
Along Lisa’s line of thought, does it indeed make sense to sell some US assets and re-buy in Canada?
Final question: if I hold US cash in a US dollar account in a Canadian domiciled bank, is it safe from Trump’s potential ravages?
(Please take multiple credits.)
Thank you, Michael

Q: What would your opinion be on selling US stocks held in US funds (or moving cash) from a US account over to CAD account to realize the immediate ~40% fx gain (maybe it's not that simple, please advise)? Assuming there's options in the Canadian equities market that are just as good as that on the American side, I'm having a hard time rationalizing why this is a bad idea. Thoughts?

Q: I am a retired investor and am concerned of the current state of the Markets in Canada and US.
While we go back and forth on tariffs one thing is becoming clear, the next four years will be filled with uncertainty and disruption. I am hopeful that common sense will prevail and we can move forward in a positive and productive manner, but who knows!!

Given the uncertainty around the current markets and another deadline in 30 days, is there sectors that you would avoid right now or lighten up on? How should investors prepare for this period of uncertainty?

Thank you
Tim

Q: With some dry powder available, would you suggest to buy now or wait for the tarrifs with China to shake out and see what comes of the 30 day pause with Can/Mex? All buys are with long term hold in mind.

Q: OK so now we have "buy Canadian, bye American" trend. So I suppose Canadian companies could actually see a bump in sales. Are there any companies you can think of where this could move the needle in a meaningful way? Not sure how sustainable though?

Q: Our loonie is taking a dramatic free fall. What strategies do you favour for value preservation if one holds a sizeable cash position?

Q: Good morning 5i,

I'm expecting some turbulence coming for sure. I doubt all is priced in with the tariff battle. Of course nobody knows. But opportunity may be knocking.

I refreshed myself on Peter's cover call write up from years past. I'd love a new take on selling covered calls to enhance your income and some strategies relating to it. ie, OTM, time frame etc.

And some top stocks in your view for writing on. Excluding NVDA, already sell OTC cc on my position.

Thank you very much.

Q: Hi, I - along with many other Canadians I'm sure, have been watching the USD climb. It looks to be heading back up to test the recent all time highs, and I am wondering if you could shed light on how the value of the USD will affect the market. As well as if there is a tipping point, at which the value also starts to hurt the US economy, etc. My limited understanding is that if the USD climbs, stocks go down. Your thoughts on this would be appreciated! Thanks!

Q: I wondered what Trump would do to support the market, and now we have it.
A sovereign wealth fund!
A ludicrous idea for the U.S. which is not only a currency issuing government, it is also the reserve currency.
However, a deep pocketed buyer of U.S stocks will inevitably push p/e's higher.
While the insanity grows, we might as well make some money.
Hopefully Ryan speaks to the potential impact of this for investors in his webinar tomorrow.
Mike

Q: I have been trying to get my head around what will happen with Trump's war against Canada. I have tended towards devastation to the Canadian economy and as such have shifted some investments to the US and taken a 25% cash position at least until we get some clarity on the situation. I would really like to get an understanding of just how devastating it would be. Assuming Trump does put a 25% tariff on Canadian goods just how bad does 5I think things could get . Unemployment numbers ? How deep a recession ? How or even can we weather the storm ? .... And any other thoughts you may have if we get the full brunt of a 25% tariff ? .....
I have been questioning my fears simply because Mr Canadian Market is so far not panicking { but I am } ......

Q: Tarrifs: assuming the market has a massive overreaction, what should I buy, what should I sell (perhaps nothing given long term hold strategy) and what can you say in general about the impacts and opportunities this will present?

Thanks

Q: Hi 5i Team,

My expectation is that the CAD will continue to weaken based on many factors including the trade war, weak economy and continual decrease in interest rates and that there will be good opportunities in the resource sector for companies that have assets based in Canada but sell their their commodity in USD (ie companies like AEM have or CNQ). Would you agree with this thesis? If so, what other resource companies would fit this profile?

Thanks as always,
Jon

Q: Hello, I have a few questions on tariffs.
With the anticipation of Tariffs, what sector would you recommend we are to stay invested in
Also. Do you think the Tariffs will last long .? If no, why? And lastly, do you think the market will drop by 5,10,20% given tariffs

Thanks

Q: Good Morning
Can you please list the following sectors from the most vulnerable to the least affected by Trump's tariffs ? Please deduct as many credits as required. Thank you again for your insight.

Banks
Insurance Companies
REITS
Staples
Communication Services
Utilities
Pipelines
Discretionary
Technology
Energy
Materials
Industrials

Q: Hi - have some dry powder available to be able to invest. We're close enough to the orange-man implementing tariffs that I'm going to wait and see what happens next week before deploying. I'm guessing any decline in stocks will be felt more in Canada than the US, but I"m wondering what you think might take a hit and what Cdn & US companies you might look at buying should the market have a healthy pullback. Probably better to ask if/when things sell off, but I'm just trying to prep my shopping list. Thx.

Q: hi,
do you have an educated "guesstimate" of the downside risk if Trump's tariffs go through across the board Saturday? percentage down?
also, can I get your most current thinking as to which sectors, and particular equities, are at greatest risk of a sell-off?
cheers, Chris

Q: Perhaps I wasn't crystal clear in my earlier question on these 3 - Canadian companies with US operations could be a target under the IRS section 891 to double taxes paid on their US operations. What Canadian companies might be affected by 891 in retaliation for our Digital Services Tax to pay more US tax?

https://financialpost.com/news/economy/canadian-business-pay-price-digital-services-tax