Investment Q&A

Q: The latest Liberal budget seems determined to put the nail in the coffin for Canada's economic future.
Some points from the Financial Post: “Declining business investment remains a critical concern for Canada, which is a signal that entrepreneurs, investors and business owners don’t see the country as a hospitable place to do business. From the end of 2014 to the latest quarter with data, the level of (non-residential) business investment in the country declined by 19 per cent, after accounting for inflation. Among a group of 17 industrialized countries, Canada now has the second-lowest level of business investment as a share of GDP.”

Your thoughts?
What is the mood of investors and business owners that you have spoken with?

http://business.financialpost.com/opinion/morneau-delivers-a-budget-in-deep-denial-about-the-dangerous-territory-were-in

Q: Interested in your thoughts on ARLP. The company is in a sector - coal that nobody other than Trump seems to love. It pays a solid dividend which is well covered by its cash flow, and it paid a dividend through the Obama years, despite some of the regulations brought in at that time. Do you see a place for this company in a well diversified portfolio with some emphasis on safety of capital. Thanks

Q: Is Broadcom still a Singaporean company today? There has been reports in the news media around November 2017 that Trump announced "he" is moving it back to the USA. I hold a significant position in my RRIF. If it is a USA company today, I will have to pay U.S. estate taxes if I die. I will need to sell my position before that happens. Can you look into it's current home country? Is there a reliable website I can go and check the home country of Broadcom from time to time? Thanks.

Q: In regards to the reply to Terry's post, I'm a prime example of that. With all the uncertainties of Trump, US Gov't debt, NAFTA, Canadian housing & credit card debt, Brexit, etc. I've been expecting a correction/pull back for well over a year now. In the meantime I've held off buying ETFs for the US and Europe markets while watching them run up to record levels.
So here's the worse part. Psychologically I have a real problem buying those ETFs at today’s prices when I know I could have bought them much cheaper even though it looks like the run still has a way to go.

I'm sure I'm not the only one in this boat, so if there is any advice as to how to avoid getting into a trap like this, it would be greatly appreciated. Do you think in times of uncertainty, it is better to add monthly into an ETF rather than one lump sum?

Thanks for any help!

Paul

Q: Would you pick CUD or VGG or is there another alternative that you prefer? Would you switch from one to the other?

Q: Thoughts on their 22 Dec announcement of charges and Trump taxes. Call me paranoid, but the timing was suspicious. Is it likely the time to jump ship?

Q: What companies on both sides of the border does 5i think are set to benefit from the recently passed US tax reform law?

Q: I have $500k in cash to invest. Getting into the market with current economy and market conditions is hard for me to do. I have asked around at other firms and of course the answer has always been "Get in now. why wait", but I believe that they are biased because they will make their fees from me even if I lose money during a market correction.

As an example I did some back calculations using a tool on Steadyhand's web page and the rate of return from 2007 to 2016 compared to 2008 to 2016 is significantly different. By waiting one year the annual ROR changes by almost 100% (5% 2007-2016, 11% 2008-2016). It is interesting how nobody ever talks about this.

I would like to wait until the market correction happens, whenever that may be, but I need some unbiased advice.

I realize that this question has probably been asked before but I think that the answer to this question has to take into account current conditions and where the market is compared to historical norms and averages.

If I was using one of the 5i portfolios it would be the Income portfolio.

Q: Markets have been pulling back the last few days. Do you attribute this to tax loss selling or something else? When would you suggest deploying cash?

Q: Hi guys, I'm looking at your response to 'who's likely to suffer when NAFTA gets torn up' (which seems increasingly likely)... I have held these for a long time and been VERY happy with all of them, but is it time to trim them down? Do you think the NAFTA threat is sufficiently priced in? I'd love to get your thoughts on each one. Thanks! PS -- you can ding me for 5 questions :-)

Q: If the Trump tax plan goes through on corporate taxes, this would be a real plus for canadian companies that do a large part of there business in the USA, am i right on this, and what large companies of our's would really benefit?
Thank you

Q: In your opinion if Trump cancelled Nafta, which 6 Canadian Co's would be the most affected in order?
Thanks

Q: Is there any concern in regards to the NAFTA negotiations for the short and long term outlook of GIL?

Thanks
Paul

Q: Taking a pessimistic view, if Nafta talks fail, and Trump abandons the agreement, then which Canadian based companies are likely to be hit hardest? i.e. can you provide a short list of companies that get very significant export revenue from the U.S. ?
Thanks,
Philip

Q: So given the increasingly pessimistic outlook on NAFTA coming from just about everyone, is it time to start considering which stocks, like Magna, might be worst hit in the event Trump cancels it and maybe moving into different sectors?

Q: In considering Vanguard and BMO ETFs for possible investment, my question is about the choices between CDN-hedged and, I guess, "non-hedged" variants of US and foreign ETFs. My impression is that the latter typically offer better returns. But does the risk of random currency exchange fluctation trump that advantage? Many thanks.

Q: Hi 5iResearch Team,

I have a full position on NOC for about 1 1/2 years and am up about 80%. Can I have your views on this stock going forward? Also do you think the easy money on NOC has been made and that I should liquidate and move on to something else?

Cheers

Q: Hi 5i trying to decide between picking 5 junior golds of zjg. They 5 would be small position that would total 2.5%. Recently bought FNV 5% as Trump seems likely to ramp things up in precious metals.thanks for your help!

Q: Hi Peter and Associates,

I hear some talk of tax selling as early as August? Some professionals speak of setting up their portfolios to avoid and/or to take advantage of year end tax selling pressures? Some sectors and/or specific stocks have seen modest to significant declines this year and risk seeing above average volumes of yearend tax loss selling?

Many experts do not suggest trying to time the market but also talk of good entry points to initiate a position if not starting with partial ones to begin. Then there are those who factor in seasonality or other technical indicators. Without wanting to sound pessimistic, more than a few guests on business programs express caution, have increased cash weighting to have dry powder in reserve.Markets are not seen as cheap but opinions vary as what to do?

Bottom line, market corrections are part of reality and one has not occurred in some time? What percentage cash might be viewed as a reasonable cushion for a middle of the road risk investor with a 65/35 (Equity/ Fixed Income) objective who would prefer to reduce equity exposure by building up some cash reserves at this time? What suggestions might you have in response to the above and specifically, what reduction in equity exposure might be reasonable and/or sufficient to have substance? Assume a 5% weight in gold forms part of the overall strategy and a sufficiently large portfolio to provide diversification and no over weightings within it.

Fundamentally, are there any specific strategies an investor might use or at least consider in the last months of any year and more specifically this year?

Thank you.

Mike

Q: SIS has sharply declined from its peak of $17.55 in late May.It is priced to perfection. After miss of expected EPS the last 2 Qs(May by 0.01 & Aug 0.05(0.07 vs 0.12 expected),investors are very unforgiving in this climate(eg geopolitical,Trump,seasonally weak period-mid July to mid Oct,talks of big correction & high valuation) despite 2 good US earnings period & slow & steady growth in economy.Look at similar negative impact on KXS & CGX.On the flip side,see PBH & SHOP.SIS was top pick of 5I on 3/3/16 @ $5.85 & 5/16/16 @ $7.99.I am now looking for an entry point,so please advise what is the catalyst(s) for a turnaround.Thanks for u normal great views & services.