Q: I have a question about GUD. I HAVE BEEN TRYING TO BE PATIENT ON THIS NAME.iT SEEMS ALMOST TOO LONG .aNY SENSE OF HOW ONE CAN KEEP A PROPER PERSPECTIVE...WHEN ARE THEY GOING TO DO SOMETHING?
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Investment Q&A
Not investment advice or solicitation to buy/sell securities. Do your own due diligence and/or consult an advisor.
Q: Hi 5i,
Just a comment. For anyone looking at historical returns to evaluate the future prospects for a balanced (equity + fixed income) portfolio, it is extremely important to consider that the next 30 years of fixed income returns are virtually guaranteed to be significantly different than the past 30 to 40 years. Bond yields (interest returns) were in a generally declining trend, originally from nosebleed levels, for about 35 years from approximately 1980, during which even government bond yields dropped from double digit peaks to the negligible rates available over the past couple of years. The portfolios of investors who held bonds of significant duration early in that period reaped high interest rate bond returns while they watched the paper value of their bonds increase with each downward tick in interest rates. The fixed income component was potentially a tremendous contributor to very good portfolio returns over much of that extended period of declining interest rates.
Looking out over the next 30 years, the prospect is vastly different. Bonds don’t have anything remotely approaching the same kind of return potential. Current interest rate returns are still very low as rates are recently just beginning to move off what may later be viewed as ‘the bottom.’ The prospect for people who hold bonds of any significant duration while rates rise is that their holdings become less valuable. Low interest instruments may need to be held to maturity in order to avoid a loss of principal. In the meantime, those low interest bond returns will be a drag on any better portfolio returns that may be generated by equity holdings. If you have 50% of your portfolio in bonds that pay 2%, and you hope for an 8% overall portfolio return, you have to generate a return of 14% from your equities. Maybe bond yields will return to levels where they are not so detrimental to significant portfolio returns over the next 5 to 10 years but maybe they won’t. If they do, then holding bonds while the rates are rising can be painful. If they don’t, then they may go through an extended period where the chief value in bonds is the secure return of capital at maturity but the return prospects until maturity are relatively dismal.
The fact that someone buying a 10-year Canada Bond in 1982 got a 16% annual rate of return on it is not an indication of what anyone putting together a bond portfolio or balanced portfolio today can expect it to realize. It is completely irrelevant.
To assess the return prospects of a balanced portfolio today, you need to consider the relevant details and prospects for today's bonds, not the irrelevant details and portfolio contributions of bonds that have long since expired.
(Please print only if you think doing so may be helpful.)
Just a comment. For anyone looking at historical returns to evaluate the future prospects for a balanced (equity + fixed income) portfolio, it is extremely important to consider that the next 30 years of fixed income returns are virtually guaranteed to be significantly different than the past 30 to 40 years. Bond yields (interest returns) were in a generally declining trend, originally from nosebleed levels, for about 35 years from approximately 1980, during which even government bond yields dropped from double digit peaks to the negligible rates available over the past couple of years. The portfolios of investors who held bonds of significant duration early in that period reaped high interest rate bond returns while they watched the paper value of their bonds increase with each downward tick in interest rates. The fixed income component was potentially a tremendous contributor to very good portfolio returns over much of that extended period of declining interest rates.
Looking out over the next 30 years, the prospect is vastly different. Bonds don’t have anything remotely approaching the same kind of return potential. Current interest rate returns are still very low as rates are recently just beginning to move off what may later be viewed as ‘the bottom.’ The prospect for people who hold bonds of any significant duration while rates rise is that their holdings become less valuable. Low interest instruments may need to be held to maturity in order to avoid a loss of principal. In the meantime, those low interest bond returns will be a drag on any better portfolio returns that may be generated by equity holdings. If you have 50% of your portfolio in bonds that pay 2%, and you hope for an 8% overall portfolio return, you have to generate a return of 14% from your equities. Maybe bond yields will return to levels where they are not so detrimental to significant portfolio returns over the next 5 to 10 years but maybe they won’t. If they do, then holding bonds while the rates are rising can be painful. If they don’t, then they may go through an extended period where the chief value in bonds is the secure return of capital at maturity but the return prospects until maturity are relatively dismal.
The fact that someone buying a 10-year Canada Bond in 1982 got a 16% annual rate of return on it is not an indication of what anyone putting together a bond portfolio or balanced portfolio today can expect it to realize. It is completely irrelevant.
To assess the return prospects of a balanced portfolio today, you need to consider the relevant details and prospects for today's bonds, not the irrelevant details and portfolio contributions of bonds that have long since expired.
(Please print only if you think doing so may be helpful.)
Q: ITC since February has gone nothing but down. The chart looks terrible. PHO since April has gone nothing but down. It seems to remind me of CRH and CXR and we all know what happened there. Your opinion? Dennis
Q: Could you please comment on $CCL.B and $WCN for a long term {2-3 Years} hold. Thanks Valter.
Q: Given the recent questions concerning FIH my interest in India has been piqued.
My question might be outside your scope .... but I just received what appears to be an email promotion from Deutche Bank India. The offering is for a FD (fixed deposit) GIC for 5 years with a graduated interest rate starting at 6.9% for years 1 and 2 and moving up from there to 8%. Too good to be true? Obviously the interest rates are appealing.
I could try to copy and paste the ad if you are unable to find it.
Thanks for your help.
A dividend seeking senior!
My question might be outside your scope .... but I just received what appears to be an email promotion from Deutche Bank India. The offering is for a FD (fixed deposit) GIC for 5 years with a graduated interest rate starting at 6.9% for years 1 and 2 and moving up from there to 8%. Too good to be true? Obviously the interest rates are appealing.
I could try to copy and paste the ad if you are unable to find it.
Thanks for your help.
A dividend seeking senior!
Q: 5i team :
I have some cash available (10% of portfolio) with the intention to have it ready if the market (TSX or S&P 500) go on a sharp downturn. Assuming that this does not happen what would be your recommendation for the safest of all stocks (or 2 or 3 of them) in case of a downturn in the markets. (I am asking for a yield of 2.5%) Most of the safe stocks tend to have high P/E ratios , which makes me think they will drop anyways. Thanks
I have some cash available (10% of portfolio) with the intention to have it ready if the market (TSX or S&P 500) go on a sharp downturn. Assuming that this does not happen what would be your recommendation for the safest of all stocks (or 2 or 3 of them) in case of a downturn in the markets. (I am asking for a yield of 2.5%) Most of the safe stocks tend to have high P/E ratios , which makes me think they will drop anyways. Thanks
Q: I am wondering your thoughts on Capital Direct as an investment in Mortgages with a yield of about 7-8%. - What are other income trust options with a fixed unit cost
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FLIR Systems Inc. (FLIR)
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NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)
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Raytheon Technologies (UTX)
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Xylem Inc. New (XYL)
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Cognex Corporation (CGNX)
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Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. (CHKP)
Q: Hi 5i Team
I'm aiming to increase exposure to US growth in the tech and industrial sectors (preferably with some dividend ) I am open to moderate risk and tend to hold positions for years.
Could you suggest 3 names in each to look into?
Thank you.
I'm aiming to increase exposure to US growth in the tech and industrial sectors (preferably with some dividend ) I am open to moderate risk and tend to hold positions for years.
Could you suggest 3 names in each to look into?
Thank you.
Q: Hi 5i Team,
In the current environment, which sectors do you consider will be worth focussing on to add new positions - I am overweight financial, underweight most other sectors currently, attempting to resolve this.
Thanks
In the current environment, which sectors do you consider will be worth focussing on to add new positions - I am overweight financial, underweight most other sectors currently, attempting to resolve this.
Thanks
Q: Hello
In view of the news today that Siemens is closing the plant in Tillsonburg that makes turbines for wind generators, should concern be raised about Northland and their business model based on wind power? I have shares of NPI (down a bit since my purchase) but also have BEP.UN in the sector.
Thanks, John
In view of the news today that Siemens is closing the plant in Tillsonburg that makes turbines for wind generators, should concern be raised about Northland and their business model based on wind power? I have shares of NPI (down a bit since my purchase) but also have BEP.UN in the sector.
Thanks, John
Q: Hi 5i team,
I purchased DDC years ago at $20 and have been in a lost position for a long time. Now the stock price is near $18. Should I sell at $18 or hold on it longer in hope of a better offer? Thanks.
I purchased DDC years ago at $20 and have been in a lost position for a long time. Now the stock price is near $18. Should I sell at $18 or hold on it longer in hope of a better offer? Thanks.
Q: I have held the Keg for the past few years. I am thinking about selling in favour of buying a and w on recent weakness. Can you fully dissect each company and provide an opinion on each?
Q: Good morning Peter,
Thank you for your thoughtful-as-usual, prompt answer to my recent question.
You feel that over the long term, a 50/50 portfolio (50% US Market Index ETF/50% US Money Market Fund) would return about half or less than one that is fully invested in the US Market Index ETF.
Writing in San Francisco's MarketWatch on Sept. 2, 2010, Jonathan Burton showed that such a portfolio "...has made almost as much money as the more aggressive, stock-heavy strategy over the past 25 years and topped it over the past decade."
Why would investors not reasonably expect a similar future performances?
Thank you.
Milan
Thank you for your thoughtful-as-usual, prompt answer to my recent question.
You feel that over the long term, a 50/50 portfolio (50% US Market Index ETF/50% US Money Market Fund) would return about half or less than one that is fully invested in the US Market Index ETF.
Writing in San Francisco's MarketWatch on Sept. 2, 2010, Jonathan Burton showed that such a portfolio "...has made almost as much money as the more aggressive, stock-heavy strategy over the past 25 years and topped it over the past decade."
Why would investors not reasonably expect a similar future performances?
Thank you.
Milan
Q: Yesterday the stock price of CIGI was down over 7% and WSP was down well over 3%. Do you know of any news that would have caused this?
Q: a bit of granurality for the benefit of your readers following your response on Fairfax.
The last time I checked they had I think no more than 5 positions, one of them is an important position in the BANGALORE AIRPORT growing ''exponentially''.
On the bad side :
1 it trades in US dollars and I have no hedge
2 It has I think a pretty hefty MER similar to a hedge fund, I have a call wainting to be answered but nobody answers as I want to know how the MER is calculated.
All and all seems not bad and signifantly better than ZID so far
Print at will
CDJ
The last time I checked they had I think no more than 5 positions, one of them is an important position in the BANGALORE AIRPORT growing ''exponentially''.
On the bad side :
1 it trades in US dollars and I have no hedge
2 It has I think a pretty hefty MER similar to a hedge fund, I have a call wainting to be answered but nobody answers as I want to know how the MER is calculated.
All and all seems not bad and signifantly better than ZID so far
Print at will
CDJ
Q: What do you think about VNTV and it's purchase of WorldPay as a two to three year hold. I note the P/E is very high. Thanks.
Q: good day...I am looking for a mutual fund that has no load and a small mer that my son and his wife can use in their rrsp for the next year or two ...I only want an mutual fund because of the trading costs incurred by buying individual stocks until they have a larger balance in this account...if you could recommend a good fund here I would greatly appreciate it...gene
Q: I'm taking over my retired uncle's portfolio, he has about 40k all invested in cominar. He withdraw about 350$ of dividends each month. I would like to diversify his investment and he want his monthly 350$, what's your advice?
Cheers
Cheers
Q: My interest is dividends....this was top pick on BNN so had a look because of 6.0 percent div...2016 year shows significant loss in sales ..profit...first qtr 2017 shows more loss.....confused by recomdation...what am I missing....I would not consider this ...but would like your comments
Q: I would like to know if there are some mid cap gold Companies that may have some seasonal summer time upside that you guys think may have a pop in the next month or so . Thanks.