Investment Q&A

Q: I know these companies vary a lot on the risk spectrum (CNQ likely being the safest and PXT the riskiest due to geopolitical risk), but if oil prices stay relatively high for the next couple years (let's say averaging at least $70), how would you rank the following stocks at current prices for potential total return: CNQ, TVE, IPCO, PXT?

Q: My two underperforming energy E&P stocks are CNE and PXT. Both seem restrained by their activity in Columbia, with the hostile new prez and increased taxation. What I think I know is as follows:

CNE is primarily nat gas, provides decent production reports and projections and is working to supply more regions via a pipeline project, paid for by and built by a Chinese partner, and scheduled for operation by 2024. CNE has more debt than peers, but largely at a fixed rate until 2028. Notwithstanding that they trade at 1.52XCF, yield >10%, have reduced their share count steadily through modest buy-backs and have optimistic guidance, the stock has steadily fallen to the point that I’m now down 43%! Thus, I could exploit a loss.

I’m still up somewhat on Parex, which has great financials and outlook, and seems widely loved by analysts, though this is not reflected in the recent price action. Parex is primarily oil, but in their most recent report, they note Columbia’s growing demand for nat gas and say that they plan to do more in that direction – supporting what Canacol has said. I have a modest gain on Parex, though the stock has performed poorly relative to its Canadian-based peers – thus no tax loss to be harvested, and delaying a sale until after tax loss season could be contemplated.

Am I missing something about one or both of these companies, or are they just mispriced? Sell CNE now and PXT later, or hold on?

Q: Thank you for your response on CNQ vs GXE. I omitted one other potential and would like your comparison between CNQ, GXE, AND PXT. I know Parex carries some political risk but I am looking for yield (Diversified RIF) while retaining oil exposure. Figuring out risk/reward here.

Thanks!

Q: I wish to add more energy stocks to my portfolio for diversification. I have ENB and SU. I am thinking of adding GXE, PXT & TOU, all three seem to have very low or no debt, and either PPL or TRP. All for a 5-year hold. I do enjoy the high dividend yield but would still wish to have some growth and safety. Please feel free to add or remove any from my list of your choice, rank them from the best to the least, and each with a reasonable entry price. How long of a time frame would you recommend to spread over the additions?

Thank you again for your insight.
Roger

Q: Taxes on share buybacks..The govt. is proposing to tax buybacks.. which companies do you think will get affected? What are your thoughts on this. Thanks.

Shyam

Q: PXT last reported its earnings the week before. Kindly comment on its results and forward guidance. As well, are there any reason for the weakness in share price lately, especially yesterday which slid down by 5%, right from the opening bell. I'm looking for tax losses for 2022 and PXT seems to have jumped to the forefront at this point. Thanks.

Q: Parex is starting to look so tempting that I am considering it again despite an anti-oil government now in charge in Columbia. The dollar a year dividend now yields well over 5 per cent and I estimate that at least 20 per cent of PXT's market cap is covered by net cash on the balance sheet. I sold out of PXT in the high $20's before the Columbian elections but I promised to revisit is it went sub$20. It is now below hence the revisit. If the Petro government were to get really radical and decide to nationalize the foreign oil and gas (and mining for that matter) companies what kind of compensation might be paid (I am sure had some experience with that back in your Sprott days!!) I recall The Harper government getting a free trade deal between Canada and Columbia. Does a deal like that make nationalization much more difficult? I wouldn't waste your time on PXT but at sub $19 it is really tempting!!!

Q: A follow up on y PXT question. On the stockhouse bullboard someone posted that the Gustav Petro (sounds more like a Russian that a Latino) government announced a new 10 per cent tax on 'exports' of Columbian crude. Is the oil that PXT extracts in Columbia used domestically or does it go for export? Or am I spitting hairs on the definition of the word export? Also the same post said that royality payments would no longer be tax deductible which is a drag on post tax profit but it can't be that big of a hit?

Q: If a 2% tax is imposed upon oil and gas co. share buybacks, I assume that free cash flow will be directed toward debt repayment and dividend increases, with low debt companies raising dividends the most. Which O&G companies would you recommend, ( if my assumption is correct )?

Q: JOY
FRU
ATH
BIR
PXT
TCW
WCP
TVE
ARX
CPG
VET
ERF
MEG
BTE

Which three of the above fourteen oil & gas stocks would you sell first to bring my sector allocation back to my normal weight? This is assuming 100 WTI oil in 2023. Could you also provide a brief reason for each of the three stocks that you would get rid of first. Thanks.

Q: I read where the operator of the Sakhalin-1 oil and gas project in Russia's Far East has been changed by Russian gov't decree. What is the risk for a firm like Parex or others with significant foreign operations to be affected in the same manner, including being nationalized?

Would you have a list of the larger energy companies with significant foreign operations? I know from my past work in the oil and gas industry [40 years ago] nationalization insurance was available. I'm not aware if it is still available or not.

Thank you

Q: I'm thinking about selling PXT now (say mid-October) to lock in the tax loss early, and then buy back later (over 30 days, of course) at a even lower price (gaining more shares hopefully).

I know PXT is depressed due to the local political issues in Colombia. Do you have any updates on these problems? What are your views on these situations? Is PXT still a good investment? Thanks.

Q: PXT is supposed to have declared a dividend on 9/14 payable on 9/30. Do you know if they actually paid that on 9/30? I only ask since I have not seen that in my bank account as of today 10/03. Thanks.

Q: Hi Peter,

Could you please rank your favourite few Cdn listed oil equities as of today?

If you were to hold two names, would you go with the top two or would you do something else (eg one blue chip and one smaller growth player)?

Charge questions as required. Many thanks!

Q: I am on the sidelines right now. If the market drops significantly I will buy back in. If it does drop enough for me, which 6 oil and gas stocks would you buy? Majors, micro, US, Canadian. It does not matter to me.

Q: what are the current annual percentages of dividend, debt and free cash flow yield for each of these companies. use as many question credits as needed

Q: What are your top 3-5 of picks in small/mid cap Canadian O&G stocks? I'd also appreciate your thoughts on holding periods.

(Eric Nuttal seems to think they will do well for quite a while yet, though he seems to always be bullish - or maybe just talks his book...)

Q: Columbian Government has proposed a tax reform bill that seeks approval from lawmakers.

Part of the bill asks for 10% tax on oil exports at price over $48/barrel as well as removing the tax deduction for Royalty payments.

Are you able to offer a reasonable opinion on how heavy a financial hit this may have on Parex? If not please just ignore question.

Q: The reason parex was down is the new govts new tax on resource companies will impact earnings dave

Q: I can't figure out why parex (PXT) has dropped over 10% today. Their recent quarterly was excellent, they are buying back shares like crazy, they have several high impact wells coming on stream in H2, and they started giving a very nice dividend. What am I missing?