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Investment Q&A

Not investment advice or solicitation to buy/sell securities. Do your own due diligence and/or consult an advisor.

Q: Good morning team, I know you like CCL/B, but would you pls. comment on TD's theory of removing their position from their model portfolio...

Materials
We are removing our position in CCL Industries Inc. (CCL.B-T, portfolio
weight 2.5%), given what we view to be a poor sector backdrop and a high quantitative risk outlook.
Given CCL's consumer product customer base, we view the removal of CCL as part of our strategic rotation to reduce exposure to consumer stocks. We view the weak pricing environment, as seen through the low consumer price indices and the very poor performance of the U.S. consumer staples sector,
as a potential negative trend for CCL. Our concern is that the weak pricing and potentially higher costs in consumer stocks could be passed down onto packaging and related companies. Margin pressures in consumer-products related sectors, such as auto and auto parts, is a common theme late in the cycle.
Quantitatively, we are seeing a modest deceleration in CCL's trailing and forward earnings momentum. Following its recent quarter, the 2017 consensus estimate was lowered slightly more than its 2018 consensus estimate. As a result, CCL has what we would consider to be high 2018 year-over-year earnings growth expectations of 15%. Combined with a high multiple of 21x 2018 consensus earnings, we believe that CCL is at risk if 2018 consensus earnings are lowered.
Following its recent price recovery and what could be technically viewed as a "double-top" formation, we are willing to take profits at this time.

And Thank You!! for the upgrade on your website.

Read Answer Asked by Silvia on November 06, 2017
Q: I note your recent decision to reduce exposure to TOY in the BE portfolio. If I do likewise, where should I reallocate the capital, based on today's conditions? I have only half positions in CAE and BYD.UN, should I add to either of those, or something else? I am overweight BNS and T, please do not consider either of these in your answer. Thank you.
Read Answer Asked by Walter on November 06, 2017
Q: Do you have any comment on Bill C 27 regarding Defined Benefit Pension Plans being altered to Target Pension Plans which would introduce uncertainty in the size of the pension as the employer would shift risk to the employee. I am a retired member with a Defined Benefit Pension. The bill applies to Federal and Crown Corporation pensions but I can see the bill potentially affecting all defined benefit pensions. The bill is now in second reading and was quietly introduced. Actuarily sound pension plans would likely not be as vulnerable as those that are not.
Read Answer Asked by Donald on November 06, 2017
Q: I have decided to pay off my mortgage, primarily because I think I have had a good run with equity returns outperforming by a good margin the cost of carrying my mortgage. Although I am not concerned about a large correction I think the risk return is swinging a bit more towards paying off the 2.79% mortgage. I will likely sell 3 or 4 of the following to do so: bbd, mal, pza, rsi, rus, tpk, wjx, dht. Please rank in order in which you would sell the companies listed, you can assume none will adversely affect my current asset allocation. I realize it is quite a mixed bag...but they are some of the ones I hold that aren't in your balanced portfolio so kills 2 birds by getting them out of my current holdings...
Read Answer Asked by Tom on November 06, 2017
Q: I asked a question about staying in unregistered equities or paying off my mortgage at 2.79% a few days back. I was a bit surprised for equity guys to tell me to pay off my debt at 2.79%. I get it and basically asked the question because that is what I am likely to do...however doesn't that seem like a pretty low bar even when risk is factored in? Even if you assume I would be taxed at highest rate of 33% you only need to get me 4.2% to come out ahead. So can I interpret your answer that you expect your balanced equity portfolio to return below 4.2% in 2018 and that you fear your current run of 8% annual returns might be coming to an end?
Read Answer Asked by Tom on November 06, 2017
Q: I've made a ton of money on Warrants but don't know of any site that reports New Warrants as they are issued. FP releases a monthly report on the 1st. Business day each month....but that's too late as most are out of the money by that time.
Until a year ago the Star would everyday display high volumes and I caught the Warrants from there.....but they stopped reporting on that.
Do you know of any site that reports Warrants as they are issued?
Thanks for the great service. I've learned a lot and made a lot of money from it.
Cheers. Austin
Read Answer Asked by Austin on November 06, 2017
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