Investment Q&A

Q: Excluding the Trump tariff issues, any explanations about why this stock has tanked so badly since its Decembert 2024 high?

Q: Hello 5i,

If we assume Trump continues with his grandstanding for another few weeks, is it plausible that SPY could reach levels of 460 or 430, or an unthinkable 2022 level of 360?

There has been a few questions and answers with a list of stocks and ETF’s to purchase. Our query will be focused on RRSP and TFSA choices. We have a large cash pile (50% CDN and 50% USD funds) residing in PSA and BIL from our rebalance in mid-February to sleep at night. We have 15% in laddered GIC’s for fixed income in RRSP’s.

We set a target of the SPY at 500 to begin a slow accumulation of equities. A reply to our questions below can include International ETF’s, US or CDN stocks or ETF’s, with the only limitation that the stock or ETF must be available in CDN and US stock markets.

If possible, could you provide a list of 10-15 stocks for RRSP’s?

Which 5 stocks would you recommend for TFSA (not the same as RRSP)?

Thank you for your time and support.

D&J

Q: It appears more and more likely that if current tariffs remain in place the USA and Canada are headed into recession. On average markets have dropped around 30% during past recessions. This would imply considerable further downside from current levels. Especially so if the Canadian markets are caught up in the same downdraft.
What is your current view on how far markets will drop from current levels? And Why? And do you still see less of a drop in Canadian markets as one of your previous posts would suggest. If so.,how would that be rationalized?
Is it too late to sell equities, or better to sell and limit further losses if a lot more downside is likely?

Q: I think we all want to deny the probability of a US civil war. Markets might be efficient but government's are not. I have been guided by looking at worst case vs best case scenarios and have allways found the reality somewhere in between. I'm concerned now, that the US and Trump may be taking us into a worst case scenario. Is there any investment strategy that I should consider or avoid. Thanks. John

Q: Hi Peter, Ryan, and Team,

US bond yields have recently increased quite substantially due to the self-inflicted chaos caused by Trump. Canadian yields have also risen, but thankfully not as much as in the US. Even dividend payers like Fortis, Emera, and Hydro One have recently been under pressure.

Portfolio Analytics tells me that our Utilities exposure needs to be increased. Since the three stocks referenced are “on sale”, do you think that this could be an opportune time to buy some FTS, EMA, or H? We already have a large holding of FTS, but I’m intrigued by the recent momentum of Emera.

Your thoughts on this strategy will, as always, be of help as we try to navigate through this truly bizarre period.

Q: What do you see as the "end game" in the US involving Trump and imposing tariffs? This is creating a massive disruption. Could the US elite be concerned about the rise of communism and are privately backing this significant "push back" in an attempt to regain a the footing they have lost as a super power? Lately we have become aware of the battle for Greenland and the Panama Canal....China vs the US. If this is part of the end game, there will be alot of pain to go arond worldwide.
I know this is not a straight up investment question....but perhaps we need to try to find out what is motivating these actions and ultimately the impact on economies and stock markets around the world.
Thoughts?
As usual, thank you for your insights.

Q: what is going on?? The NAS has jumped 1300 odd in the past twenty minutes.

Q: Hi,

I'm a conservative, almost 60yr old inverter who, last Friday, panicked and shifted about half of my portfolio into ETF bonds as a safer haven for now due to Trump's global tariff mayhem. Now, of course, I'm considering the unthinkable - Canadian inverse bear ETF's to try to get some money back from the crash. I may never have the nerve to do such a thing since I realize there is a high-risk gamble, no dividend and high fees involved. Is there anything else I should be aware of before I dip my toe into such extreme ETF's ?? Is it better to stay in CAD or shift to USD ?

Thanks - Nick

Q: One would think that CLS, HPS.A and VRT would be screaming buys if Trump said "just kidding" and ended his tariff war tomorrow. But I wonder if this is true. What are the chances that AI/data centre stocks were in a bubble and all it needed to burst was a new low energy search engine like DeepSeek? Is it possible that the wider market chaos is just masking an inevitable re-pricing of AI and data centre stocks? If so, the current lower price for these stocks may not be the screaming buy they might appear to be.

Q: With the April 8th deadline for China, will that be damaging for the market?

Q: Only within the last two months we were at record highs, now we’re in a bear marker for the Nasdaq and S&P nearing one. Futures are selling off again here Sunday night. US administration is digging the heels in on these tariffs.

What are your thoughts on the Trump and Fed put? If they don’t change course soon, the economy is going into a recession and midterms next year will be ugly for the GOP. Looking back at all previous crises, what do you think will happen in the next 6-12 months and what’s the game plan? VIX at these levels and large consecutive down days have resulted in nice future returns 1,3,5 years out. Let’s say you had 100k to invest now, how would you deploy over the upcoming weekly or monthly interval? Which 5 CDN and 5 US stocks would you continue to buy on any weakness, assuming only market related? Thank you!

Q: Don’t you think Trump is forcing investors to move from stocks to bonds in order to reduce interest costs on the federal debt as a result that would leave room for tax cuts.

Q: Hi Peter, Ryan, and Team,

David Rosenberg wrote a very insightful opinion piece in the Globe & Mail on Friday, April 4, entitled “Trump’s ‘reciprocal tariffs’ are a con – and investors are now waking up to his bigger ambitions”.

The title may cause readers to assume it’s ‘political’, but it is not. Rather, it’s a careful analysis of what the White House is up to, and this short excerpt from the article explains what it really is:

“These are not really “tariffs” that are being imposed. These are actions aimed at completely eliminating the U.S. bilateral trade deficit with every country. That is why the “tariff” is really not that at all but rather a “ratio” of every country’s trade surplus with the U.S. divided by the exports of that country – it is that number that the White House expects to rid the United States of its trade deficits; not just at an aggregate level, but for every country that runs a trade surplus with America. This is why these numbers, 10 per cent, 17 per cent, 20 per cent, or 25 per cent, are so huge. They are ratios.”

I can’t resist, however, to be a little bit ‘political’. It’s unfortunate that Trump, Lutnick, Vance, et al will probably never see the article!
Rosenberg certainly stripped away the clothes of these would-be emperors.

The article is behind a paywall, but I urge 5i members to try to get a copy of Friday’s Globe. This will enable them to determine the real reason why many of their stocks and ETFs have recently ‘tanked’. 5i have our backs and they hopefully will continue to alert us about volatility and the potential for further losses to our portfolios caused by this insane ‘policy’.

Q: The VIX is now 35. Is it time to back up the truck?

Q: How exposed are SHOP and CLS to US tariffs? In the case of SHOP, what proportion of transactions are cross-border? For CLS, where are its manufacturing plants located. Overall, how do you view their perspectives today versus what they were pre-liberation day? Thanks.

Q: Stocks are being pummelled. But as always, hopefully they will come back but it may take a while longer than normal. Trump is not normal. If one understands the risk, would you suggest buying some names that are being particularly hit today (eg SHOP -15%)? If so, can you suggest a few names?

Q: Today Emera moved their CFO to Florida, seemingly to better manage their $20 billion dollar Florida project runway.
Sounds good in theory, but I am curious if you see any possible Trump or DeSantis headwinds from a Canadian company expanding in this state in particular, given the "America first" sentiment.

Q: Hello
Teck resources seems to have been headed down for quite a while

Did it get too expensive and sold off?
Is there something else weighing on this company more than tariff and recession fears?

They can sell to anyone in the world do not sure why tariffs are a big issue

Thanks

Q: Hi Peter and Team,

In the event that the US decides to get its potash from Russia (Trump and Putin are now and always have been close buddies), what effect will that have on Nutrien? It's been a volatile holding for us, but we've held on to it, I'm concerned that if it loses a lot of its export market to the US, it's going to tank. Your thoughts?

Q: The three year chart on this is not pretty. Why, given the lack of potash on the market from the Ukraine and Russia, has NTR not thrived? I've done well on NTR in the past but have a hard time understanding the cyclicality. This looks like a good time to invest once again, but is it? How can tariffs hurt NTR? Where else is the US going to get their large need?

BTW, thanks for the suggestion that 475 was a good entry point for ISRG.

Now, NTR? Your thoughts, please

al