Review of Acadian Timber Corp.

Q: Good Afternoon;

Since late July Acadian has been in a steady downtrend that seems inconsistent with both the price trend for lumber and the latest Trump tariffs. I am trying to understand what is driving this downtrend, as some of their production (Maine) would not be subject to a tariff and lumber prices seem not to have "added" the tariff but absorbed it.

I own it as an income stock in a LIF. Aside from the drivers of the stock in the short term I am interested in dividend risk; is it or should it be a concern? Lastly, given the decline in price is there a trigger price you would be comfortable with to buy? I am considering adding at current yields.

Thanks as always,

Dave

Q: Is lumber in the basic materials group?
Could you recommend one or two lumber stocks (Canadian or US) that might have the best growth potential going forward?
Thank you.

Q: Hello 5i,
There have been many negative questions regarding Tariffs and other non-Canadian officials. Wondering if it makes sense to look to those Canadian companies that would benefit from the upcoming April 28, 2025 event results.
Following is my list of questions for you – please feel free to take as many credits as you require since I typically don’t use many.
• The clear winner looks to be BAM/BN/BIP/BEP with the massive housing & project build plans. Some housing build plans look to be well beyond anything the private sector has ever seen. Outside of investing in BAM/BN/BIP/BEP are there any other companies that will experience increased growth rates? Perhaps Canadian Only Lumber Companies, Steel, etc.… Being careful to ensure the industrial carbon tax doesn’t offset any building growth rates.
• Looks like major projects are going to be built to save the country from the tariffs. Assuming these are going to be non-conventional energy would the companies such as BAM/BN/BIP/BEP/WSP, benefit the most? Are there any other companies to start looking at? Perhaps carbon capture companies?
• I wonder if there are any areas of benefactors increasing/decreasing the amount of tax havens in Canada? There are a fair number of mid/small companies that could setup a beneficial tax structure and become more profitable. My experience with setting up offshore structures is that there are setup/dismantle/maintenance costs with Lawyers and Accountants but perhaps other benefactors are investable. Are there any publicly traded Accounting or Legal companies to start watching?
• With proposed additional spend to media companies are there any benefactors? Will BCE benefit from the overall plan? Are there companies worth looking at in the media sector?
• With the additional military spend are there any companies in Canada to invest in? I have a small position in MAL which could benefit from Canada built fighter jets. Is BBD.B a good one to look at?
• After reviewing the proposed firearm buyback pricing list, the overall program looks to be worth ~$2B in 2025 for Canadians. My question is could there be benefactors to this spend? Maybe ~$2B is not enough to stimulate the economy considering the current spending levels but it reminds me of a COVID-like spend bump. Assuming a large portion of the funds will be redistributed back into the economy.
• Health care seems to be getting an increased focus compounded with the buy Canada therefore are there any pure Canadian pharmaceutical/healthcare companies that will benefit? I have a SIS position that I could add to if they are going to be benefactors. Are there any companies that provide safe site vending machines or building structures?