Your thoughts on NTR's prospects over the next year or so, in general? Please include your thoughts on the Jansen mine coming on line...and your thoughts on the latest USA tariff threats?
As NTR is fairly cyclical, my plan was to consider trimming or sell all of NTR when it reached into the $90-100 range.
Thanks for your insight....Steve
It is a cyclical stock, but we think looks decent right now soon. Rather than setting a somewhat random trim level, we would also keep an eye on position size for trim decisions. This may be more beneficial than a price target, and will allow one to ride an upwave a bit longer, using portfolio size as an indicator of exposure rather than price. Trump was making noise yesterday on 'severe tariffs' on fertilizer. We believe this is just posturing, but may hurt sentiment in the short term. NTR really moves on contract prices as opposed to anything else. The US is still its biggest customer, but ex-US accounts for $10B in sales (the US is about $15B). But NTR does have options to go elsewhere as a tariff workaround. Recent growth has been good, but consensus does call for flat earnings next year (largely for tariff reasons). So, tariffs could be priced in. The stock is cheap at 12X earnings and offers a relatively secure 3.7% dividend while investors await a trade war resolution. We continue to like it. Jansen is not expected to come online until mid-2027. It is a big mine, but we think customer contract negotiations are likely already including its impact in their decisions. We do not want to dismiss extra capacity, but again it is likely priced in we think.