Investment Q&A

Q: What do you think market reaction would be on 1) removal of Fed chair Powell and replacement by the man proposed by Pres. Trump, 2) drop of interest rates by the new Fed Chair and whether this drop would overpower the tariff influence, and 3) the liklihood of any lower interest rate euphoria quickly wearing off because of the tariffs?
Thanks a lot for you valued insights.

Q: I used to own a REIT called INN . A play on the Canadian tourism industry . I did quite well on it and sold it for a tidy profit when they were bought out . With our southern neighbors rapidly approaching " Most Hated Nation " status coupled with their currently well publicized Gestapo tactics at the border resulting in travel alerts in at least five countries ..... I am curious in what ways I can invest in the Canadian tourism industry ? On social media I am reading a lot of European and Aussie tourists are planning trips to Canada instead of the U.S. .... Any suggestions of an approach to investing in Canadian tourism ? I am looking for Canada " only " options . If there are no " Canada " options how about Europe ? Not interested in any company that even uses U.S. airspace..... I'm an " Elbows Up " Canucklehead .....

Of course one other concern is Trump throwing the world into recession and the travel industry suffering as a result. Could 5i comment on that thesis as well ? ..... Thanks for your terrific service .....

Q: Hello team,

With the tariff situation and the often-contradictory comments issued by Trump and some of his advisors leading to some markets sectors tumbling or, occasionally, jumping then retreating once the corresponding news have been corroborated, denied, or even contradicted, the financial markets seem, at times, to be taking the allure of a casino with the performance of some sectors or individual stocks are subject to wild swings, and sometimes even within the same day… How do you advise retail investors to behave under the circumstances?

Consequently, could you see a situation where the repercussions of Trump and his team’s behaviour could affect the US stock and bond markets in an irreparable manner? (For example, large investment houses retreating from given sectors in tandem creating a serious imbalance in trade, or China dumping their large trove of Treasury bonds.)

Adel

Q: I'm sure you'll have a bunch of questions on NVDA, AVGO and semis in general. How far do you think this particular Trump Train Wreck will go? Any guesses are appreciated, as well as thoughts on whether to hold, sell or buy more - !
Thanks!

Q: Nvidia down 6-7% A/H on news will be taking a $5.5B charge on shipping H20 processors to China....banned 9 April by Trump??......your thoughts on ban/charge....and is growth story now gone/limited for Nvda.....is stock now a buy/hold/sell....thx as always, jb

Q: Good afternoon - Trump has been granted permission to at least temporarily fire two agency leaders. In your opinion has the risk of Jerome Powell being fired increased? And ultimately a losing an independent fed increased? Thanks

Q: I bought TDB2915 a U.S. money market fund some time ago . There is 10.82 % of my portfolio in it . My sole reason for buying it was TD Waterhouse said that was the only way I could get around currency exchange when buying U.S. stocks. I recently bought a U.S. stock and they did not take the money from the account and when questioned on it informed me that they no longer did this practice. So I really have no motivation for keeping the money in this fund. Though the fund has increased in value 10% over the six or seven years I have had it. I'm not sure if this fund is earning me any money or not . Could 5i answer that question ? And more importantly with economic chaos in the U.S. is 5i more optimistic in the short term on the U.S dollar or the loonie ?

I recently read an article that Canada, the EU, and China could do some pretty serious damage to the Trump buck should they unite to sell off their U.S. treasuries ....... Would 5i counsel moving it into Canadian cash to be deployed in the future ? I'm in no mad panic to buy right now til we know what the U.S. is going to do ...... Thanks for your terrific service .....

Q: Excluding the Trump tariff issues, any explanations about why this stock has tanked so badly since its Decembert 2024 high?

Q: Hello 5i,

If we assume Trump continues with his grandstanding for another few weeks, is it plausible that SPY could reach levels of 460 or 430, or an unthinkable 2022 level of 360?

There has been a few questions and answers with a list of stocks and ETF’s to purchase. Our query will be focused on RRSP and TFSA choices. We have a large cash pile (50% CDN and 50% USD funds) residing in PSA and BIL from our rebalance in mid-February to sleep at night. We have 15% in laddered GIC’s for fixed income in RRSP’s.

We set a target of the SPY at 500 to begin a slow accumulation of equities. A reply to our questions below can include International ETF’s, US or CDN stocks or ETF’s, with the only limitation that the stock or ETF must be available in CDN and US stock markets.

If possible, could you provide a list of 10-15 stocks for RRSP’s?

Which 5 stocks would you recommend for TFSA (not the same as RRSP)?

Thank you for your time and support.

D&J

Q: It appears more and more likely that if current tariffs remain in place the USA and Canada are headed into recession. On average markets have dropped around 30% during past recessions. This would imply considerable further downside from current levels. Especially so if the Canadian markets are caught up in the same downdraft.
What is your current view on how far markets will drop from current levels? And Why? And do you still see less of a drop in Canadian markets as one of your previous posts would suggest. If so.,how would that be rationalized?
Is it too late to sell equities, or better to sell and limit further losses if a lot more downside is likely?

Q: I think we all want to deny the probability of a US civil war. Markets might be efficient but government's are not. I have been guided by looking at worst case vs best case scenarios and have allways found the reality somewhere in between. I'm concerned now, that the US and Trump may be taking us into a worst case scenario. Is there any investment strategy that I should consider or avoid. Thanks. John

Q: Hi Peter, Ryan, and Team,

US bond yields have recently increased quite substantially due to the self-inflicted chaos caused by Trump. Canadian yields have also risen, but thankfully not as much as in the US. Even dividend payers like Fortis, Emera, and Hydro One have recently been under pressure.

Portfolio Analytics tells me that our Utilities exposure needs to be increased. Since the three stocks referenced are “on sale”, do you think that this could be an opportune time to buy some FTS, EMA, or H? We already have a large holding of FTS, but I’m intrigued by the recent momentum of Emera.

Your thoughts on this strategy will, as always, be of help as we try to navigate through this truly bizarre period.

Q: What do you see as the "end game" in the US involving Trump and imposing tariffs? This is creating a massive disruption. Could the US elite be concerned about the rise of communism and are privately backing this significant "push back" in an attempt to regain a the footing they have lost as a super power? Lately we have become aware of the battle for Greenland and the Panama Canal....China vs the US. If this is part of the end game, there will be alot of pain to go arond worldwide.
I know this is not a straight up investment question....but perhaps we need to try to find out what is motivating these actions and ultimately the impact on economies and stock markets around the world.
Thoughts?
As usual, thank you for your insights.

Q: what is going on?? The NAS has jumped 1300 odd in the past twenty minutes.

Q: Hi,

I'm a conservative, almost 60yr old inverter who, last Friday, panicked and shifted about half of my portfolio into ETF bonds as a safer haven for now due to Trump's global tariff mayhem. Now, of course, I'm considering the unthinkable - Canadian inverse bear ETF's to try to get some money back from the crash. I may never have the nerve to do such a thing since I realize there is a high-risk gamble, no dividend and high fees involved. Is there anything else I should be aware of before I dip my toe into such extreme ETF's ?? Is it better to stay in CAD or shift to USD ?

Thanks - Nick

Q: One would think that CLS, HPS.A and VRT would be screaming buys if Trump said "just kidding" and ended his tariff war tomorrow. But I wonder if this is true. What are the chances that AI/data centre stocks were in a bubble and all it needed to burst was a new low energy search engine like DeepSeek? Is it possible that the wider market chaos is just masking an inevitable re-pricing of AI and data centre stocks? If so, the current lower price for these stocks may not be the screaming buy they might appear to be.

Q: With the April 8th deadline for China, will that be damaging for the market?

Q: Only within the last two months we were at record highs, now we’re in a bear marker for the Nasdaq and S&P nearing one. Futures are selling off again here Sunday night. US administration is digging the heels in on these tariffs.

What are your thoughts on the Trump and Fed put? If they don’t change course soon, the economy is going into a recession and midterms next year will be ugly for the GOP. Looking back at all previous crises, what do you think will happen in the next 6-12 months and what’s the game plan? VIX at these levels and large consecutive down days have resulted in nice future returns 1,3,5 years out. Let’s say you had 100k to invest now, how would you deploy over the upcoming weekly or monthly interval? Which 5 CDN and 5 US stocks would you continue to buy on any weakness, assuming only market related? Thank you!

Q: Don’t you think Trump is forcing investors to move from stocks to bonds in order to reduce interest costs on the federal debt as a result that would leave room for tax cuts.

Q: Hi Peter, Ryan, and Team,

David Rosenberg wrote a very insightful opinion piece in the Globe & Mail on Friday, April 4, entitled “Trump’s ‘reciprocal tariffs’ are a con – and investors are now waking up to his bigger ambitions”.

The title may cause readers to assume it’s ‘political’, but it is not. Rather, it’s a careful analysis of what the White House is up to, and this short excerpt from the article explains what it really is:

“These are not really “tariffs” that are being imposed. These are actions aimed at completely eliminating the U.S. bilateral trade deficit with every country. That is why the “tariff” is really not that at all but rather a “ratio” of every country’s trade surplus with the U.S. divided by the exports of that country – it is that number that the White House expects to rid the United States of its trade deficits; not just at an aggregate level, but for every country that runs a trade surplus with America. This is why these numbers, 10 per cent, 17 per cent, 20 per cent, or 25 per cent, are so huge. They are ratios.”

I can’t resist, however, to be a little bit ‘political’. It’s unfortunate that Trump, Lutnick, Vance, et al will probably never see the article!
Rosenberg certainly stripped away the clothes of these would-be emperors.

The article is behind a paywall, but I urge 5i members to try to get a copy of Friday’s Globe. This will enable them to determine the real reason why many of their stocks and ETFs have recently ‘tanked’. 5i have our backs and they hopefully will continue to alert us about volatility and the potential for further losses to our portfolios caused by this insane ‘policy’.