Investment Q&A

Q: Not only B of A (today's Globe) but quite a few analysts and BNN Guests say that Canadian Banks are going to take a hit b/c of earnings, poor reserves, Loan write offs etc., With that in mind is it worth selling BNS,RBC,TD and buy them back later ? In RRSPs/TFSAs. So, capital gains/loss is a non issue. I "lose" 60 $ in trading fees. But selling now can save me from losing a lot more if they tumble a lot AND I don't have to wait for a longer period of time for them to recover. ( You know the cliché, if a stock goes down by 50%, I have to make 100% to break even!)

Q: Can you please explain the losses in the big five Canadian Banks shares. I can’t for the following reasons so would appreciate your thoughts before I start to increase my exposure.

Their mtge portfolios are mostly insured , ultimately by the govt. the balance of their mtge loans are normally at significant discounts to the property values.

The new loans being made by the government will likely be backed by the government , not the banks.

They all have a long history of not cutting dividends, BMO has not in 190 years and BNS in 188 years and I expect the other three banks to be in the same approximate time frame of no dividend cuts . Unlikely you will find a US back or an Insurance company that can say the same.

They also over reserve their loan loss provisions in order to keep their profits from the wild fluctuations we see in the US.

Thanks

Q: I own TD and BNS. BNS has underperformed for years. I was thinking of keeping TD, but replacing BNS with RY. What are your thoughts on this?

Q: Given that my Margin account has the 5 big banks and 2 Telecoms paying dividends on a periodic basis and that I'm not "too" concerned that these will cut their dividends, would it be wise to implement trailing stop loss orders for these in case there is another retest of the lows of March. Had I done that at the beginning of the year, I could have picked up the above at much reduce prices with resulting greater dividend yields. And would using the same procedure for my RIF account (which has mainly REITs) be beneficial to capture the current values to avoid further losses there.
Your comments. Thank you

Q: Hi Peter: When I sit back and take a look at the big picture and review how my portfolio performed during COVID-19 (so far), I try to see what lessons I can learn, then turn to how to apply those lessons to make my portfolio stronger.

I am a retired, dividend-income investor. I am a huge believer in asset allocation and have designed a portfolio, in my opinion, to be reasonably well diversified, although heavy to Canada. It WAS roughly 70% equities (including 32% foreign content) and 30% fixed income (roughly 15% insured annuities, 15% Fisgard Capital...both averaging in the 5-6% pre-tax range and minor cash). My equities are mostly blue chip, dividend payers, as you can see above. The 3 mutual funds are a very minor part of my portfolio, especially Eric's Energy Fund (<2%). I also receive a company pension and CPP-OAS which, when included, drops my equities to roughly 32%.

I use various metrics to monitor my portfolio, such as P/E, P/BV, P/CF, P/S, Beta, ROE, Div growth, Payout%, technical indicators like 200 mda. I am normally a buy-and-hold investor who trims/adds around a core position.

Periodically I measure how "at risk" my portfolio is relative to the overall market. I do this by prorating my portfolio using Beta. Based on equities only, I averaged 0.68 and for my entire portfolio I averaged 0.44. So, one would think that if the overall market (TSX) was to drop 30%, then I would have thought my portfolio would drop 44% to 68% of that, being in the range of 13% (overall) to 20% (equities only).

In actual fact, my entire portfolio dropped 27% from peak to trough vs the expected 13%...over double! I understand that EVERYTHING was sold off...almost no exceptions. So what do we learn from this and what changes should we consider? Do we accept that "sxxt happens" once in a while...you can't predict every event, accept it and move on? Should we consider increasing the cash component as a buffer? Or...is there something else to be learned here?

Thanks for you help...much appreciated...Steve

Q: I have all 5 big banks and the 2 telecoms in my Margin Account for income purposes. I sold FRU and IPL because the dividend was reduced significantly. So I have some cash available to top up.
Given the Banks have Yields and Pay Out Ratios as follows (BMO 6.34% - 46.83%; BNS 5.90% - 44.47%; CM 7.49% - 36.67%; RY 5.25% - 44.84%; TD 5.82% - 44.76%) I am considering CM as the best yield and lowest Pay Out. Would you concur?
Thanks

Q: Hi,
Could you please comment on commercial impaired loan growth with respect to the Canadian banks prior to the Cov 19 crisis ? Have they increased their reserves appropriately ?
Thanks

Q: I have roughly equal weights in NA, RY and BNS and a half position of TD in a TFSA. Even at the worst point of the decline (so far), I have stayed above water on on all but BNS.

As a retiree who loves his solid dividends, the banks are attractive to me and my total holdings are likely higher than you would recommend. I am wondering if I should use the correction to move out of NA and redistribute the funds into RY and BNS. (No room to add money to the TFSA.)

Your thoughts?

Q: Morning ,
Relative to your recent comments on Canadian Banks and shorts , What % of shorts does it take to make a meaningful impact on the upside. Have benefited in shorts recently in Snap, Shop and ETSY . Cut my investing teeth in the Nortel, Rim , JDSU days and yet my banks have been my best long term move.
Thanks
Greg

Q: How much of an influence do American investors have on the price of our banks? Many Canadian investors have bank stocks and rely on their dividends for income.

Steve Eisman of "The Big Short" was talking about how an interesting short he sees is Canadian banks and that he has been short for some time. He says the Canadian banks have not had a credit cycle in 30 years, they are extremely unprepared for it and will have real problems.

What is your opinion?

Thanks!

Q: Can you please provide me your top 6 Canadian financials that you would buy at this time. Please rank:
Thank you

Q: which one would you choose (could be possible more than 1 if must) and why?
thanks

Q: I would like your help putting together a yield portfolio of between 15 and 20 names.
This would be the entire investments for my wife and I. We are both retired and now live full-time in the U.S. And at some point I expect my Canadian newspaper pension to disappear, so I am looking to replace that money.
I would like your opinion of the above names with regard to safety of the income and overall diversification.
I would also appreciate some additional ideas and would like to know if I`m off base on any or all of these names.
I am currently only invested in CM, BNS and BMO and DIR.UN.
Please take 20 credits (or more).
Thank you in advance for your invaluable assistance.

Q: In a recent question asked by Andrew concerning the setting up of a dividend stream of safe and stable Canadian stocks, I was more surprised by some of the stocks you didn't name rather by the stocks you did include - namely bank stocks. The three major banks, for the most part, are paying higher dividends than the ones you included and you have stated in the past you consider them as secure as any. Was the reason for their omission a concern that these dividends are likely to stagnate for a while or is there some other reason(s)?

Appreciate your insight.

Paul F.

Q: Greetings 5i ....I hold RY and BNS in a registered account and I am considering a switch to JPM. Aside from the lower dividend do you think this might be a viable longer term capital appreciation story. Best Regards...Gary

Q: Can you give me the perpetual preferred share symbols for these companies.

Q: Hi. I see in many responses related to Canadian banks that when you reply that you prefer bank a, b, c over bank X, is the a, b, c in order of preference? Sometimes the order changes from different responses.
Would you be able to list the Canadian banks in order of preference for a 5-10 year hold. I understand that in 6 or 12 months the order may change, but I'm looking today what it would be. Thanks

Q: How do you rank these stocks for an investor starting a position in Canadian banks (minimum 5 year horizon)? Thanks.

Q: Retired dividend-income investor. I'm sitting on 15% cash that I created by taking profits and harvesting some losses. I have mapped out how to redeploy this cash to hit my asset allocation targets, both by sector as well as by individual holding. I had originally designed the re-entry on spreading the purchases over 6 months. Given that we now have information on different countries indicating that they MIGHT be showing signs of COVID slowly recovering and that the stock market is forward looking, would you adjust the 6 months time frame to 4 months? What's your crystal ball tell you...redeploy a little faster?

Also, the above equities are those that are candidates for topping up. Which would you hit up first?

Thanks for your help...Steve

Q: How would you rank the banks? Strongest to weakest in this environment.
I'm considering selling some far "out of the money" puts to get some income. And if I get assigned, so be it. I'll suffer with a few bank positions yielding close to 8%. Geez, we're talking about bank stocks! I figure if they get into trouble we're ALL in really really BIG trouble.
For example, TD at $40 would yield me 7.9% in dividends. That's like 10.2% in interest. Or RBC at $58 would yield me 7.4% in dividends.
So which Canadian banks would "crack" under pressure and which wouldn't.
Thanks and take care!