Q: Dear 5i
I came across this comment from Otterwood Capital Management today:
"The fundamental event which could initiate a dollar selloff would be an announcement from the International Monetary Fund to include the Chinese Yuan in the SDR basket (see my post here for more details). The last decision was made on November 15th, 2010 so we should expect similar timing for this year’s decision. If included, roughly $1 trillion of global reserves will move into Yuan, largely out of US dollars. The decision would be positive for Chinese risk assets and by default, negative for the US dollar.
The US dollar is at a crossroads and the ongoing consolidation is running out of time. One way or another it will break out of the range and an unanticipated US dollar selloff would lead to significant repositioning and volatility."
This is the second time I have heard about this in a week. I just wanted to get your opinion on this scenario and what, if anything, you would recommend doing (i.e. would this be a good time to sell some US stocks?).
Thanks for your great service.
I came across this comment from Otterwood Capital Management today:
"The fundamental event which could initiate a dollar selloff would be an announcement from the International Monetary Fund to include the Chinese Yuan in the SDR basket (see my post here for more details). The last decision was made on November 15th, 2010 so we should expect similar timing for this year’s decision. If included, roughly $1 trillion of global reserves will move into Yuan, largely out of US dollars. The decision would be positive for Chinese risk assets and by default, negative for the US dollar.
The US dollar is at a crossroads and the ongoing consolidation is running out of time. One way or another it will break out of the range and an unanticipated US dollar selloff would lead to significant repositioning and volatility."
This is the second time I have heard about this in a week. I just wanted to get your opinion on this scenario and what, if anything, you would recommend doing (i.e. would this be a good time to sell some US stocks?).
Thanks for your great service.