Q: Good afternoon!
In looking at your comments on Veresen (VSN), I can’t quite pin down reasoning for what seems to be a change in viewpoint here.
On Dec 12th you state: “Because JC was already rejected once, we would not view this as overly significant, and is likely already embedded in the price (after Friday's drop). The company can still grow, and there will be other projects in the future.“
On Jan 5th you state: “We remain quite comfortable with VSN for income, primarily, with some growth. Good earnings growth is expected in 2017.”
On Feb 6th the perspective differs, and you state that you are “... not very big fans of VSN”
On Feb 6th and on the 14th you also now imply that the Jordan Cove rejection is NOT built in to the price, and that the valuation is high. You also stated that revenues are expected to decline, but my brief research into the company, suggests otherwise, particularly their February guidance presentation indicating $1.4 billion of projects in the works, accretive on a per-share basis, quite a bit of growth for a company of less than $4.5 billion in market cap. In a recent Globe and Mail article (published on Stockhouse, also) the following spoke to valuation based on EBITDA: “According to Bloomberg, the stock is trading at an enterprise value-to-earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) multiple of 10.5 times the 2017 consensus estimate. This is below the five-year historical average of 13.2 times and below its 10-year historical average of 11.1 times.”
Could you elaborate on what gave you this apparent change of heart, especially in conjunction with your comments about the ‘pro-pipeline’ Trump viewpoint?
Looking forward to your thoughts.
Thanks
Paul
In looking at your comments on Veresen (VSN), I can’t quite pin down reasoning for what seems to be a change in viewpoint here.
On Dec 12th you state: “Because JC was already rejected once, we would not view this as overly significant, and is likely already embedded in the price (after Friday's drop). The company can still grow, and there will be other projects in the future.“
On Jan 5th you state: “We remain quite comfortable with VSN for income, primarily, with some growth. Good earnings growth is expected in 2017.”
On Feb 6th the perspective differs, and you state that you are “... not very big fans of VSN”
On Feb 6th and on the 14th you also now imply that the Jordan Cove rejection is NOT built in to the price, and that the valuation is high. You also stated that revenues are expected to decline, but my brief research into the company, suggests otherwise, particularly their February guidance presentation indicating $1.4 billion of projects in the works, accretive on a per-share basis, quite a bit of growth for a company of less than $4.5 billion in market cap. In a recent Globe and Mail article (published on Stockhouse, also) the following spoke to valuation based on EBITDA: “According to Bloomberg, the stock is trading at an enterprise value-to-earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) multiple of 10.5 times the 2017 consensus estimate. This is below the five-year historical average of 13.2 times and below its 10-year historical average of 11.1 times.”
Could you elaborate on what gave you this apparent change of heart, especially in conjunction with your comments about the ‘pro-pipeline’ Trump viewpoint?
Looking forward to your thoughts.
Thanks
Paul
