Investment Q&A

Q: with the nat gas Companies beat up like they are , is there any midcap Nat gas companies with low debt ,that may be a good buy at their lower prices and have lots of upside. I have a time line of 18 years. someday[ Prime Minister sorry] will be gone from office and somebody will build a pipeline , maybe even leading to LNG. thanks

Q: Most oil&gas yeildcos were losing value before the correction, but now even VET is testing 6-month lows. Are there any that stand out as so grossly depressed that the reward outweighs the risk? (Please add to the supplied list as you see fit.)

Q: What are thoughts of Peyto at this time? Is it bit of a value trap or would this be a good long term hold?

Obviously the momentum is negative, but I often find the moves more extreme than reality and can be opportunities.

Cheers.

Q: Hello 5i Team,

little bit of a two for one here though all three of these companies in my portfolio are in the same battered sector. Obviously the Canadian natural gas producers are hurting right now due to weak prices, an oversupply, and a lack of pipeline to deliver especially in Alberta but Peyto itself has really bled out over the last 6 months. The dividend is nice but of course was cut and I'm feeling uncertain as to whether it will continue to be sustainable and even if the loss in stock value is very much offsetting it. Do you see any upside here? The strong downward trend momentum is rather discouraging.

Cenovus and Trican are two others that I recently acquired at the higher end of the scale relative to the last month. Since then they've been steadily sliding especially Cenovus and I presume this is due to rising bond yields, higher interest rates, and a lack of sentiment towards the energy sector. Could you please give me your thoughts on them over the short and long term please? Thanks a bunch! Your guidance is very much appreciated.

Q: Hi, I am bit confused about my Canadian oil and gas sector performance in last month or so. crude oil prices are now at $65, but Canadian companies in this sector keep getting lower and lower. I currently have positions in ZEO, BIR, HWO, PEY, & RRX.
Has spread for Canadian oil deteriorated compared to normal levels?

Q: How can I best play nat gas from Feb to May?

Q: Good Morning;

What do you feel is the best company for natural gas? Specifically, I am looking for a company with low debt, a dividend and a strong track history (good management).

I currently own a very small natural gas play (CQE) that is down 66%. I am seeking to move my remaining money into a company that will pay me to wait and provide an opportunity down the road to recoup my loss.

DON

Q: Hi 5i, Peyto has long been identified as one of the highest quality and lowest cost Canadian nat gas producers. It was even suggested that before PEY would run into serious trouble some of its competitors would be going broke and selling assets out of bankruptcies. With the shifting of shareholders following the dividend cut and cap ex reduction, any thoughts on where the stock may settle and find some stability? Do you think it is okay to continue to hold it (and continue the DRIP) and wait for a cyclical lift or would it be better just to exit the scene? Also, can you name any Canadian nat gas producers that sell much of what they produce at NYMEX prices(are there any?) ? Thanks.

Q: Peyto has been going down week after week at the same time that NYMEX gas prices have been increasing. Your going to tell me that Peyto doesn't get NYMEX prices it gets AECO price. OK but WHY is the AECO price so low; NYMEX today is over $3.20 and AECO price is ??? I used to look on the Alberta Gas Inc. website for the AECO price but it has not reported a new price since January 8th when it was around $1.50. So WHY is the Alberta price so low?? Thank you for your help. I thought we only had issues with OIL pipelines. Are gas pipelines also a problem?

Q: Hi guys,

Can you comment on Peyto's dividend cut and reduced capex? How does Peyto's cashflow look this year and next in light of these cuts? Will production be hindered?

Thanks.

Q: Could I have your comments on Peyto's press release that they're cutting the dividend, issuing share buy backs and decreasing Capex? How do you think that the stock will respond? Is this a signal that gas producers in Alberta are in for a tough run with storage and distribution issues?

Q: I notice sometimes that when you are analyzing a stock that you will warn the person asking a question to note it has missed 7 of the last 8 quarters, or that the company has missed X % in the past 2 years. On this note, how has PEY performed in the last 2 years? Would this not be a strong indication PEY will cut its dividend? Thanks....lionel

Q: WITH OIL SEEMING TO RECOVER SOME, MY CPG WILL LIKELY BE CALLED AWAY AT $ 12.00.
COULD YOU PROVIDE A FEW LAGERS IN THE OIL SPACE THAT MIGHT BE REPLACEMENTS AND ARE REASONABLE TO OWN. (have 1/2 positions in WCP & SGY )
THANKS
YOSSI

Q: Good Morning With all the talk of pey cutting there dividends in half how do think share prices will react in the medium term and what are your thoughts of canada working on clearing up some of the bottlenecks in the oil and gas delivery systems

Q: I see PEY is down 5% this morning and I am looking for your opinion on it as a long term hold. I have a full position in PEY (showing a big loss) and was expecting to see it bounce back somewhat in the New Year with tax loss selling off the table. I have always confidently felt PEY was a best in class NG producer with low production costs and strong management. Is it being taken to the woodshed strictly based on investors hating the sector or is there something specific about PEY making investors nervous? Am I wrong to be losing confidence in this investment?

Q: Currently, I am down over 50% on PEY. I don't really want to sell at the bottom but am concerned about the sustainability of the dividend. I don't necessarily need the dividend, so would it be a good move right now to replace PEY with BIR?

Q: Looking for a best pick for natural gas exposure. BIR & PEY have sold off significantly and pay dividends. Is PEY dividend sustainable? Overall thoughts?

Q: What are your predictions for Peyto over the winter months?

Q: Hi,
Peyto seems very attractive from Dividend perspective. would you consider dividend safe? what is the free cash flow and payout ratio?
other than whole sector being down, any reason for recent decline in share price.
Thanks

Q: This is a follow up to David’s question(05.12.17). If one sells PEY for a tax loss would you replace with another oil or gas company? If no, why? If yes, which companies (say 2 or 3)?
Thanks, Bryn