Q: Hi Guys Since you will get a lot of questions on the short report on Goeasy I thought this article/comment from National Bank would help members and save you some valuable time ( only make public if you think it is useful):
National Bank Financial analyst Jaeme Gloyn thinks the allegations and evidence brought by Jehoshaphat Research in a short report released Monday claiming Goeasy Ltd. (GSY-T) is manipulating their reporting to delay and avoid reporting rising delinquencies and charge-offs are “without merit.”
Accordingly, in reaction to the 9.9-per-cent drop in the Mississauga-based company’s share price on Monday as well as a post-close analyst call in which management firmly refuted the allegations, Mr. Gloyn now sees “a buying opportunity.”
“The report includes former employer interviews and former competitor executive interviews to explain how frequently and easily GSY uses tactics to delay reporting charge-offs and delinquencies,” he said. “JR argues GSY will have to start reporting higher charge-offs as these loans will inevitably need to default and be charged-off and expects this catch-up in losses to ‘devastate earnings’. The report argues its thesis on the following points: i) GSY’s change in their definition of net charge-offs, ii) rising interest receivable as a percentage of interest income, iii) lower allowance rates on stage 3 loans, iv) large shift of loans into GSY’s “low-risk” category, v) the surprise departures of former CEO, Jason Mullins and CFO, Hal Khouri."
“JR’s evidence of manipulation (Rising interest receivables, lower allowance rates on stage 3 loans and the shift in loans to the ‘low risk’ category) is explained by GSY’s rapid increase in auto loans. GSY has grown its portfolio of auto loans from $40-million in 2021 to over $1-billion today,” he said. “The key is these loans are larger and typically benefit from a lower loss given default because they are secured by the vehicles. Unlike unsecured loans that charge-off after 90 days, secured auto loans will charge-off after 180 days. As these larger auto loans become delinquent, it is reasonable to see an increase in interest receivable. Further, because these loans are secured by vehicles where confidence in recovery is higher, it is also reasonable to report a decrease in stage 3 allowances as a percentage of loans outstanding. Additionally, the risk categorization of loans is determined based on probability of default, which can change based on collections abilities. GSY enhanced their collections capabilities in 2024 which could explain the change in classification.”
The analyst concluded the evidence presented by the Florida-based firm is explained by recent growth of GSY’s secured lending platform.
“We are aware of the potential volatility that can come with rapid growth of a lending vertical as we have seen with auto lending at GSY,” he noted. “We believe management is also aware of this and is actively making investments to improve collections and underwriting. That said, this does not imply that GSY is involved in any accounting games or excessive ‘kick the can’ activity.”
Mr. Gloyn reiterated his “outperform” rating and $265 target for Goeasy shares. The average is $239.22.
Elsewhere, Scotia Capital’s Phil Hardie cut his target to $225 from $235 with a “sector perform” rating.
“The release of a short report alleging that goeasy has improperly delayed credit losses and materially unreported loan delinquencies has put near-term pressure on the stock,” he said. “We believe the central theme of the report follows a relatively well-worn path for short-sellers that target lenders during transitioning economies. The author alleges that company uses “pretend and extend” practices to avoid reporting delinquencies and uses accounting approaches that delay reporting of loan losses and other expenses.
“We don’t buy into the report’s bearish view that delayed net-charge-offs are likely to drive a significant earnings miss for 2026, or that GSY is engaged in questionable practices. Following a 10-per-cent one-day decline in the stock after the release of the report, we would not be surprised to see a near-term bounce to recover some lost ground, however we think the report will sharpen investor focus on underlying delinquency and portfolio credit performance trends and constrain near term multiple expansion. Ultimately we think the key to sustainably removing any overhang will be delivering solid results with the charge-off rate remaining in line with the targeted range with late stage delinquencies also trending down.”
National Bank Financial analyst Jaeme Gloyn thinks the allegations and evidence brought by Jehoshaphat Research in a short report released Monday claiming Goeasy Ltd. (GSY-T) is manipulating their reporting to delay and avoid reporting rising delinquencies and charge-offs are “without merit.”
Accordingly, in reaction to the 9.9-per-cent drop in the Mississauga-based company’s share price on Monday as well as a post-close analyst call in which management firmly refuted the allegations, Mr. Gloyn now sees “a buying opportunity.”
“The report includes former employer interviews and former competitor executive interviews to explain how frequently and easily GSY uses tactics to delay reporting charge-offs and delinquencies,” he said. “JR argues GSY will have to start reporting higher charge-offs as these loans will inevitably need to default and be charged-off and expects this catch-up in losses to ‘devastate earnings’. The report argues its thesis on the following points: i) GSY’s change in their definition of net charge-offs, ii) rising interest receivable as a percentage of interest income, iii) lower allowance rates on stage 3 loans, iv) large shift of loans into GSY’s “low-risk” category, v) the surprise departures of former CEO, Jason Mullins and CFO, Hal Khouri."
“JR’s evidence of manipulation (Rising interest receivables, lower allowance rates on stage 3 loans and the shift in loans to the ‘low risk’ category) is explained by GSY’s rapid increase in auto loans. GSY has grown its portfolio of auto loans from $40-million in 2021 to over $1-billion today,” he said. “The key is these loans are larger and typically benefit from a lower loss given default because they are secured by the vehicles. Unlike unsecured loans that charge-off after 90 days, secured auto loans will charge-off after 180 days. As these larger auto loans become delinquent, it is reasonable to see an increase in interest receivable. Further, because these loans are secured by vehicles where confidence in recovery is higher, it is also reasonable to report a decrease in stage 3 allowances as a percentage of loans outstanding. Additionally, the risk categorization of loans is determined based on probability of default, which can change based on collections abilities. GSY enhanced their collections capabilities in 2024 which could explain the change in classification.”
The analyst concluded the evidence presented by the Florida-based firm is explained by recent growth of GSY’s secured lending platform.
“We are aware of the potential volatility that can come with rapid growth of a lending vertical as we have seen with auto lending at GSY,” he noted. “We believe management is also aware of this and is actively making investments to improve collections and underwriting. That said, this does not imply that GSY is involved in any accounting games or excessive ‘kick the can’ activity.”
Mr. Gloyn reiterated his “outperform” rating and $265 target for Goeasy shares. The average is $239.22.
Elsewhere, Scotia Capital’s Phil Hardie cut his target to $225 from $235 with a “sector perform” rating.
“The release of a short report alleging that goeasy has improperly delayed credit losses and materially unreported loan delinquencies has put near-term pressure on the stock,” he said. “We believe the central theme of the report follows a relatively well-worn path for short-sellers that target lenders during transitioning economies. The author alleges that company uses “pretend and extend” practices to avoid reporting delinquencies and uses accounting approaches that delay reporting of loan losses and other expenses.
“We don’t buy into the report’s bearish view that delayed net-charge-offs are likely to drive a significant earnings miss for 2026, or that GSY is engaged in questionable practices. Following a 10-per-cent one-day decline in the stock after the release of the report, we would not be surprised to see a near-term bounce to recover some lost ground, however we think the report will sharpen investor focus on underlying delinquency and portfolio credit performance trends and constrain near term multiple expansion. Ultimately we think the key to sustainably removing any overhang will be delivering solid results with the charge-off rate remaining in line with the targeted range with late stage delinquencies also trending down.”
