Q: This is an observation on Knight after your response to Cheryl's inquiry and your revised position stating you are getting edgy about this company.
One aspect of investing I have learned from my time with 5i is to have patience with a company and to not react to one quarter results.
Regarding Knight, we waited and waited and finally they did a solid acquisition which closed at the end of November 2019. 5i indicated it was a good deal for Knight.
They have not completed the deal as they are still pursuing the 48% from BTO shareholders. This is an unusual way to buy a company and it taking a long time.
However, after they pay everything, they will have no debt, lots and lots of cash and have repurchased over 12M Knight shares. They are presently doing a second NCIB with the intent of buying another 10,8M shares. So, they are buying 20% of the floating shares, enhancing shareholder value. Should they have started a dividend instead? I think that was too early and approve of their share repurchase. However, does that mean they don't see any future deals on the near term horizon? I do not know but they will still have a few hundred million...
They have now reported one quarter. The sales met one analyst's estimate but fell short with the other two. Not exactly a disaster considering it is a new company in new and faraway countries during a pandemic. The company says the virus is a non-factor but many in South America, and everywhere, are more reluctant than usual to seek medical treatment that is not absolutely necessary because we want to stay home and that has to hurt drug sales.
I think this company's share price will be double by this time next year and will be approaching $25 - $30 by the end of 2023. Considering the high valuations in the market today, this seems like a prudent investment. If they have not performed by December 2023, I will sell my large position and take the bath. However, I am not buying any soap today.
Do you have any update on whether they have purchased any shares on the second repurchase? And, they were late reporting the last quarter so when do they report again?
It is almost unthinkable to differ from your opinion on any stock because you are all so smart. We'll just have to see on this one but I think it's too early to expect so much after waiting so long...
Thank you.
One aspect of investing I have learned from my time with 5i is to have patience with a company and to not react to one quarter results.
Regarding Knight, we waited and waited and finally they did a solid acquisition which closed at the end of November 2019. 5i indicated it was a good deal for Knight.
They have not completed the deal as they are still pursuing the 48% from BTO shareholders. This is an unusual way to buy a company and it taking a long time.
However, after they pay everything, they will have no debt, lots and lots of cash and have repurchased over 12M Knight shares. They are presently doing a second NCIB with the intent of buying another 10,8M shares. So, they are buying 20% of the floating shares, enhancing shareholder value. Should they have started a dividend instead? I think that was too early and approve of their share repurchase. However, does that mean they don't see any future deals on the near term horizon? I do not know but they will still have a few hundred million...
They have now reported one quarter. The sales met one analyst's estimate but fell short with the other two. Not exactly a disaster considering it is a new company in new and faraway countries during a pandemic. The company says the virus is a non-factor but many in South America, and everywhere, are more reluctant than usual to seek medical treatment that is not absolutely necessary because we want to stay home and that has to hurt drug sales.
I think this company's share price will be double by this time next year and will be approaching $25 - $30 by the end of 2023. Considering the high valuations in the market today, this seems like a prudent investment. If they have not performed by December 2023, I will sell my large position and take the bath. However, I am not buying any soap today.
Do you have any update on whether they have purchased any shares on the second repurchase? And, they were late reporting the last quarter so when do they report again?
It is almost unthinkable to differ from your opinion on any stock because you are all so smart. We'll just have to see on this one but I think it's too early to expect so much after waiting so long...
Thank you.
